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I haven't looked at the sensitivity analysis on the PEA but that wouldn't surprise me - perhaps c10p is about right after all.
Hi Bonkers
The PEA 24 showed a 1% move in the tin price caused a 3% move in the NBV.
I think they found gold at the end of the day as it’s only down 0.99%. Let’s hope they continue to find tin now.
Good luck
I don't think this would move if they announced they found a seam of gold.
Thank you
I had only started rebuilding a previously successful position have sold mid 20’s but I’m struggling to see a reason for a pullback if this scale other than the CEO situation?
I view the last two RNS’s as solid so think once the leadership is resolved this will settle down but holding back adding until there is clarity
"· All study components of the ongoing Feasibility Study, with the exception of infill drilling, expected to be completed by the end of June 2024;"
This means a PFS, not a DFS I assume?
Industry standard metric of a PEA/PFS valuation of NPV * 0.16 = £30m + tin price 10% over the PEA tin price should add another 10% (maybe significantly more) + c£10m in cash = £43m / 8p.
Good grief, this share was 10p, steady, a week ago? - then it dipped and the company issued a retaliation RNS saying quite clearly there was no reason for it, now we have another 2 good RNS's in succession, so I M O we should be back to 10p, will it be interesting when Toronto market opens later today?
Bonker99 please be so kind as to provide an arithmetic explanation as to how you came to that deduction..
I hope that’s not financial advice you are giving? 😉
Holy moly, one million shares, I dread to think what your average price is!!
I hope you're using good investment discipline in no more than around 5% of portfolio in any one stock.....
Good luck to you, I fear you may need it
This has got takeover target written all over it.
Looks like the former CEO was given a financial settlement, so was pushed rather than jumped. Interesting.
Majority shareholder probably has other ideas in direction of CUSN possibly?
£33m PEA/tin price + £10m cash says this should be at 8p to my eyes unless there's some other imminent liability that nukes that cash in short order?
Pawgee - Many thanks for the link. It is clear it is not just industrial activity behind the electrification metal price surge; it is investment activity.
I liked the comment:-
"The BHP takeover woke up a lot of people that it is much cheaper to buy a company than building a new mine,”
What is true for copper is likely to also be true for tin - perhaps even more so.
And so the relevance to CUSN.................................
If we look at the cost of building the infrastructure that South Crofty already has, we can add another feature to the compelling investment case. Five shafts already sunk for SC, (see page 21 of
https://storage.googleapis.com/leaf-prod/uploads/company_profile/corporate_page/212/ section_attachment/8bba4128-1e63-4c2f-a330-2fd7bdb60153.pdf
.......a decline also in place (Tuckingmill), winding gear, pumps etc. At UD, CUSN also have a decline (Wheal Maid )
What other valuable assets? A large mineral rights area , a new prospect to explore (Wide Formation) a stake in the lithium area through Cornish Lithium.
And CUSN has already gone through the expensive and time consuming process of gaining permits -
When you align all these features with a forecast lowest quartile cost of production and a short time to production, I conclude that the danger for shareholders is that a cash rich miner looking doe an electrification exposure, will swoop in and buy the company for a fraction of what a longer term holder might achieve.
Risks, - clearly we are not over the financing hurdle - which must be the main risk, but the chances of jumping over that appear to be steadily growing.
Hi valuation-it-is, maybe I am a tad negative, but I'd say I err on the edge of caution. If it comes to fruition, happy days. Hopefully it does for everyone invested. I'm looking to top up. That should give me a million shares, so I think that says it all about my thoughts on this company.
Vii
Interesting article in FT today along same lines as your post. Mainly mentioning copper, but tin very closely aligned
Financial Times,
Rush of fund manager interest drives metals prices to fresh highs
--
Read the full article at:
https://on.ft.com/3wC6azU
An interesting post on another critical metal from NG the TUN CEO
"
Neil Gawthorpe
CEO at Tungsten West
"Great to see the tungsten price moving. Imports of concentrate into China doubled during Q1 and are continuing to increase during Q2. The US have also announced a 25% tariff on Chinese tungsten products which can only be good news for non-Chinese suppliers. "
Gingy ttoday 13.42 "This is "a takeover target for one of the big outfits. But at what price?
Take a look at previous posts referring to what return VBR looks for in its investment. ===>54p to 72p
Gingy
I think that yours is a negative view. Clearly CUSN is not yet in production so the tin price does not affect the trading results, however the tin price will make a huge difference in a way that many may not expect.
When it come to finding finance (US$177m) for the project a high tin price will provide a much better project NBV and a bigger cushion/insurance policy against price volatility. All of that adds up to more finance providers being willing to invest and at a lower interest rate. Which will also boost the NBV. So brokers will use a greater factor between 0 and 1.0 when valuing the shares. e.g. 0.75 x NBV rather than 0.5x NBV.
Yes very true
It should have but this is AIM 🤷♂️
Surprised this hasn’t moved up today imho