The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
For those queuing up to praise the current management team , just remember the share price has dropped nearly 55% in the past year. .so if you wish , by all means be impressed by glossy and slick presentations explaining to you how they have destroyed 55% of your wealth over the past year if you had shares in them at that time.
The key question to ask of course is why the 55% drop in share price ...the answer is simple ..the city lost confidence in the company and management team when they down graded production forecasts ...it doesn't pay to disappoint the city in terms of under delivering . Furthermore the downgrades didn't only cover one year , they cover 3 years... and ignore management terminology of 'resetting' production levels and instead, translate it into 'reducing' production levels and for the next 3 years and inevitably, by definition, EPS , not just for this year but for the next two as well ..
Lots of waste stripping going on etc ,to remedy the situation , but this is merely acting after the horse has bolted ..this should have been done before. What on earth was the audit and risk committee doing .
So you might ask , why am I investing in the shares.. well that is what I do ..I buy to the sound of the sirens and sell to the fanfare of the trumpets. .I got in at £1.03 so I am grateful to the board of Centamin for screwing up and allowing me to buy in at a cheap price. I accept the risk that the price could go even lower which is why I take a candid look at the prospects of recovery instead. I was hoping to piggy back off other people's research on this board, but there wasn't any of significance or relevance , other than an impolite suggestion from Mr Bond to conduct my own thorough research . Well that didn't take long .
So the reason why I am still invested here is because the city invariably over reacts to bad news which in Centamins case, came with the a anouncement of gold production reductions on 29th September 2020.when the price was £2.05 a share ...the following day the share price dropped 25% to £1.50 per share and by 6 weeks later , when the full implications of the announcement sunk in , the share price had fallen by 50% to £1.05 where it has languished since ..So I am now waiting for some good news to emerge , wait for the price to rise, and then sell, and move swiftly (hopefully within months ) to the next candidate . Centamin is a share that you should making stealth moves in and out of in the shortest possible time .. it is not a share to buy and hold forever. It has lost 50% of its share price over the past 11 years (excluding dividends)
Having read through all of the posts on this thread , the most pertinent question to ask , was posed by goldgnome which is where are the next 1 million ounces going to come from and when.
Good luck to all. ..this represents my own opinions so DYOR
It seems my first impressions were correct ...there is, as things stand only one proven economically viable mine at present (Sukari) which only has between 10 and 12 years of productive life left , (goldgnome.. to me Sukari is one gold mine , Mr Horan thinks it's one gold mine too because he refers to Doropo as their potential second mine in their interim report )
So even though the Group has 14.3 million ounces of gold RESOURCES ( 9 milion at Sukari and 5 million at Doropo) , only 5 million of these can be classified as gold RESERVES ...which are all at Sukari which is where the 12 life of mine comes from ..
For the uninitiated this means that of the 14 million ounces of gold discovered by Cetamin, only 5 million of that can be extracted PROFITABLY.
Yes of course , they maybe be able to unlock more mining reserves as time progresses , but at present , Doropo is the only area with possible potential , and they won't know whether it is or not until Quarter 2 of 2022 after the results of the feasibility study becomes available. Remember that the prospect for Balti West has already been ruled out of future plans due to them not being economically viable.
The worrying thing is that this time last year , there were supposed to be 7 million ounces of gold RESERVES at Sukari , but that has now been revised downwards to 5 million even though only 0.,5 million was natural depletion due to production .. that doesn't inspire confidence in the management team ..you also have to search closely within the 230 page annual report to unearth that .
Even though there will undoubtedly be new gold discoveries , the conversion of them into realised EPS in the Financial Statements will be many years away , and stockmarkets are more concerned with the here and now , rather than years into the future.
A sobering thought .
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6834931045968834560/
The pictures (posted 4 days ago)show some pretty primitive devices. Are they basically washing away the sand and letting the gold settle to the bottom like artisanal miners?
I would have thought these guys needed a financial contract with the EMRA before extracting gold - regardless of the miniscule amounts. I hope this is not indicative of things to come i.e. every man and his donkey combing through the desert.
Memories of good old mac69 and his centrifuge...
Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist: http://Europac.com |
Chairman: http://SchiffGold.com | Founder: http://EpacFunds.com , http://EuroPacBank.com | Host: http://SchiffRadio.com
Puerto Rico, 549.5K Followers
"It's noteworthy that while today's rise in long-term bond yields is hurting #gold, is not helping the dollar. If bond yields keep rising, and gold starts shrugging it off too, look out. #Inflation is bad for bonds, but good for gold. So bond yields and gold should rise together!"
A tweet from Centamin today about recycling balls... I like recycling, really I do, but...
$CEY is building a culture of improvement, looking for ways to #innovate in an everchanging world. Reducing waste and costs, and supporting local businesses, #CEY partnered with UCF-Egypt to recycle and resupply #Sukari grinding media
#values #social #gold http://loom.ly/MkiZmdA
https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1430481716108533760
<<------------------------------------->>
Improvement must begin w/ better disclosure to shareholders. Where's the long awaited maiden resource for Napelepera & Wadaradoo #gold deposits in #BurkinaFaso ?
Please release the data before selling these assets.
@EndeavourMining
@BarrickGold
@AndrewBellBNN
@TheFCA
@OSC_News
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1430540058721935370
Now Mark Campbell is back and they have funding they could well be mining soon.
For year s he was starved of funds .
SP shooting up. - Over 12.5% yesterday and over 6% so far today. - Try as you may, yer can't knock it.
Hi Mr Gnome, I agree The British East India company has indeed a great deal to answer for, Blair was foolish enough to feel the obligation to prove he wasn't left leaning by morphing into Tory mode and committing the UK military into becoming the lapdog to George Bush.!
A friend of mine has a very nice antique patio door curtain rail that was made from several 303 army rifle barrels welded together, it was given to him by his grandfather who's father had once served in Afghanistan as an army RSM,.
This curtain rain was formally part of a spacial gun built over open furnaces by Afghan tribesmen warriors, these tribesmen would watch where the British army spotter planes where taking off from and then take up position on a nearby hillside from where they would shoot the pilot through the head or if that failed just shoot the bi plan'se fuel tank!
Its been a long and hopeless history of foreign intervention in Afghanistan, and without tryiing to be provacative, seems to reach at least back to the British and the Opium Wars with a kick off in 1839 (w eshould not mentionthe British East India Company) ...., topped up by Blair's (what was wrong with this guy?, Iraq, Iran, Libya..yawn) stupidity in 2006 and deployment of British troops
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/jan/04/military.afghanistan
... I do have to worry about the endless rhetoric of sovereignty, versus the actions of continual invasion and occupation ..etc
An embarassment of stupidity and conflicts of interest,
I feel for the women of Afghanistan, for the ordinary people of Afghanistan who deserve so much better than the endless foreign f/ups
best
the gnome
Quite so after the underhand deal that has been agreed with the Taliban by the Trump administration who knows what the CIA have been up to, the American instigated supposed nation building in Afghanistan was a disgraceful waste of lives, money and the future of women.
As Tony Benn pointed out in past many times these international disputes and issues should be dealt with by the United Nations, not by the US, UK , China or Russia!
I await to see the total number of all deaths in the UK for 2020..
Iran attacking tankers is not proven..
We have…..
Covid
Brexit still not truly resolved
Afghanistan
Iran attaching tankers
China fall back
US infrastructure spending
Low interest rates
US Fed indicating it’s going to reduce stimulus
US president popularity plummeting
And STILL this share is sub £1!
Major stock indexes in Europe traded lower premarket on Wednesday as worries regarding the spread of coronavirus and its new variants dampened investor optimism.
The FTSE 100 was down 0.13% at 7:40 am CET, while the DAX remained unchanged at the same time.
The euro decreased 0.11% against the greenback to sell for 1.17432 at 7:41 am CET. The pound was flat at the same time, changing hands for 1.37239 dollars.
.
Breaking the News / MD
Happy hump y’al
Hi Mr Bond and Rebess, I'm pretty certain that most of us have misunderstood a post from someone and then reacted in an inappropriate way before realising our mistake or error with regret at some time or other, and may do so again in the future, but many of us have know one another long enough not to take offence, and decent enough to admit our mistake, especially important when there isn't edit facility!
Although i have found the forum moderator is usually very helpful if contacted with an explanation and a request to remove a post made in haste or error.
Cheers for now!
hi MrBond,
I also recall those statement's from Martin Horgan, they give the impression of a CEO with integrity who knows what they are doing!
Its interesting with the LOM, in terms of what you go after in as to Resources and Reserves. To a degree, it imaybe a poor decision to portion significant money into discovering 30-50 years of mine life, as opposed to optimising the present and near future cash flow, maintaining EBITDA margins etc. Its a balancing act, often overlooked. I recall one high grade mine in Western Australia that only ever had 2-3 years mine life, but had so over 50 years! Another I worked on, had a mine life of 2 years when I started, then a life of 8 years after another 3 years had elapsed, and is still mining and discovering gold 37 years on!
Gold mineralised systems on the scale of Sukari, can go on and on, and typically do, but how much money do you put into defining mining reserves 10-15 years out into the future using money of today? And of course the other aspect is what happens to the POG and the cost structures over this tim period. The history of mining over the last 30 years have shown than on average the EBITDA margins have increased, so Gold Mining has become a better business, and hence more attractive investment propositions. See what Kees thinks about that statement?
Its a call that they may allude to, in the LOM discussions. If they don't I will ask the questions.
best
the Gnome
I have no problems with Andrew M, and in fact love his presentations. There is a lot of detail, that he divulges, that is very interesting and pertinent to short term trading. To perhaps state the obvious, I am more into longer term thinking and positioning.
He brings into the picture a very fundamental question. If the powers that be (including my beloved economists), believe in the power of the markets, then they should have put top priority into making sure each and every market is a fair, level, fully informed, market place. Proper functioning of the market place is fundamental to design, and of course it is not ... almost by design! I appreciate its an outrageous idea.
If it is so dysfunctional (by design), just who benefits, and is the benefit fair and reasonable. So Andrew brings into view the contrived and invisible hand, and it is not a fair and reasonable market. So why don't we scrub it ina dn do something a lot better?
best
the Gnome
Altus Strategies (Naguib Sawiris gold mining concessions winner in Egypt) grants Aton's former CEO Mark Campbell 100,000 share options
Altus literally just nabbed Mr Campbell from Aton 2 weeks ago — the man hasn't had time to unpack his computer
https://www.thenewswire.com/press-releases/1ArbFEjrJ-grant-of-share-options-and-pdmr-notification.html
Hi Mr Gnome,
To be fair anyone who actually has anything to do with Andrew on a more personal or face to face basis soon appreciate he is a very decent chap, he does try not to talk above ordinary people's understanding of what is happening in the markets in these broadcasts, difficult though considering what goes on by the second over the week and how much control the manipulators actually have!
Hi Mr Bond
Please feel free to post anything you want to . - You're an excellent contributor here. - You only once rattled my cage when questioning my credibility on this forum . - Much to my regret, on that occasion, I over-reacted in my response. - Not usually like me, I like everybody to have their say regardless.. - Good luck.
My response was an over-reaction
Rebess not particularly aimed at you ,lol.
I know to tread carefully around you. ;-) .
Thanks Don for clearing other peoples doubts ,but you made it clear many times in the past.
People do not research sufficiently.
Thank you Cowichan - I'll take a look. - I'll try and keep up in future. :-) - Cheers.
Hey Rebess,
Don't know if you saw but I did patch together a map of all the awarded Egypt concessions I could find. Too bad there is no photo function on this chat board but I did post it again today on Twitter. Cheers
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1430207264611254272