Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thanks Cowichan for replying to my post ..I am away for the weekend so I will reply when I get back , I just didn't want you to think I was ignoring your comments .. Best .
Peter Schiffs talk 'why the meltdown should have surprised no one' on the tube he quickly and very humourously describes the US position on the US debt to the Chinese. I think this whole chat is a must I still laugh at some of the things he says..
But of course it doesnt just apply to the Chinese it is all holders of US debt... and I'd bring up the question about German gold that the USA wouldn't let the Germans even inspect. The Germans did get some of their gold back..apparently all of it.. But..into the back door of Ft Knox ''"Ukrainian gold reserves loaded on an unidentified transport aircraft in Kiev’s Borispol airport and flown to Uncle Sam’s vault" March 7, 2014 http://newswire-24.com/2014/03/07/4827/
Out the front door of Fort Knox to Germany
"German Gold Makes It Way Back Home From Fed, Slowly"
March 26 2014 http://www.ibtimes.com/german-gold-makes-it-way-back-home-fed-slowly-1563651
look at the dates... So what if the US didn't have the gold... what can the germans do? expose the default of the USA?..Crash the whole thing and never get their gold back?.. No keep quiet but keep the 'gold in Ft Knox' on their books as a credit!...Ssssh.
As for the Chinese.. $1.3 trillion they are owed by the USA not a huge sum by todays standards.... wait for a run on the dollar then dump the lot on the markets... crash! Cheaper than a war.
candidinvestor,
might I suggest going back and rereading some of goldgnome's latest posts where he outlines the conundrum gold miners face between madly drilling out the ore body to prove reserves vs keeping a lid on costs
As he points out there are mines that have operated for many decades with rolling reserve lives of under five years - and if you take that to mean they were 'uninvestable' you'd have been mistaken
I certainly don't criticize you for wanting to hop in and out of Centamin to gain a buck - if you can time it you could have made a recurring profit over the last ten years
but regarding all the other talk I would point out that Sukari is very much unlike 98% of the gold mines in production around the world today - it is big and only getting bigger
The Sukari concession area is littered with additional deposits as we know from drilling done prior to achieving commercial production - and now with all the other concession areas awarded in Egypt this is very much a stock you can buy and hold for a lifetime
Admittedly I too am guilty of of being critical of the previous management but to be fair they have given the company a very decent legacy - not the least of being their dividend policy - compare:
Centamin has paid out a total of $720 million in dividends over the last 7 years
Angico Eagle has paid out a total of 1300 million in dividends over the last 38 years
Agnico's commitment to shareholder returns has been industry leading but Centamin has the trajectory to exceed them handily -
best of luck
Kinnell Tibbs
That post must be a record. - Even for you. :-)
Quite so Rebess, Leonard Cohen summed it up perfectly, Leonard was ahead of his time, ironically he made the mistake of trusting the wrong people who conned him out of a large proportion of his royalties and wealth!
The title phrase suggests that Cohen has not been blessed with some unique power of perception, but that these truths should be evident to anyone who walks through the world with even an ounce of coherence.
[Verse 1]
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
[Verse 2]
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long-stem rose
Everybody knows
And everybody knows that you love me baby
Everybody knows that you really do
Everybody knows that you've been faithful
Ah, give or take a night or two
Everybody knows you've been discreet
But there were so many people you just had to meet
Without your clothes
And everybody knows
[Chorus]
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
[Verse 3]
And everybody knows that it's now or never
Everybody knows that it's me or you
And everybody knows that you live forever
Ah when you've done a line or two
Everybody knows the deal is rotten
Old Black Joe's still pickin' cotton
For your ribbons and bows
And everybody knows
[Verse 4]
And everybody knows that the plague is coming
Everybody knows that it's moving fast
Everybody knows that the naked man and woman
Are just a shining artifact of the past
Everybody knows the scene is dead
But there's gonna be a meter on your bed
That will disclose
What everybody knows
[Verse 5]
And everybody knows that you're in trouble
Everybody knows what you've been through
From the bloody cross on top of Calvary
To the beach of Malibu
Everybody knows it's coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart
Before it blows
And everybody knows
[Chorus]
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IfmiKnZi3E
Yep, the 'bad guys' have won and people outside of the 'club', ordinary citizens, can do nothing about it. All the democracy in the world cannot overturn a system that has evolved into total dominance, total supremacy. A system that controls the political-levers, financial-levers. law-making levers, media-levers. - They have won, we have lost and there's nothing that can be done.
Whilst the dollar is the reserve currency and the US has the printing press, not to mention the levers to manipulate the market's that may be so.
Its not just the markets, nothing in today's world can be taken for granted any more as we are all aware.
I remember the time when people could pick a few safe dividend payers out of the ftse 100, ftse 250 for the long term, not any more the stock market is like "Bet Fred!"
The more the Dollar is used as a weapon the more that countries so sanctioned will move to alternatives. The Chinese/Russian currency bloc grows in strength with every squeeze on the use of the Dollar.
It's still the best of a bad bunch though.
Hi Candid,
Its always good to read such thoughtful and in many ways sobering opinion from a reliantly new Centamin holder which raises some very fair points. for us all to consider.
I must admit that after the RNS disclosing the averted pit wall disaster and the subsequent severe share price drop I had thought a statement from the new CEO on his preposed strategy to get Centamin back on track would have stabilise he share price far more than it did, certainly caught me out!
Unfortunately though the the previous CEO and indeed his less than qualified mine manger had made so many past unfulfilled promisees that the disclosure of many years of inept mine management meant that he new CEO's promises were not enough to convince the market that things have really changed,,sustainable proof is actually needed!
to be fair though today's marker is all about spoof and promises of what may be rather that actually delivered on, because the market will have moved on to something new, the market doesn't really care as long it can keep pumping th indices up and down!
Long term investing, what's that now a probably 24hrs via CFD's.
Investing in the stock market today is'nt like it used to be!
America may have been militarily defeated in Afghanistan, but it still has the dollar. As western governments scramble to remove their citizens and vulnerable Afghans, access to the US financial system has become the main instrument of leverage over the Taliban. As the Islamists completed their takeover, the United States froze $9.5 billion in Afghanistan’s central bank reserves, while the International Monetary Fund, whose largest shareholder is the US, blocked access to $460 million. Starved of liquidity, Afghan banks have been forced to close and limit withdrawals, starving citizens of cash and the country of access to foreign exchange for trade. The G7 told the Taliban on Tuesday that restoring access to dollars would be conditional on safe passage for Afghans trying to ….
Subscription only:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-dollars-supremacy-cannot-be-taken-for-granted-any-longer-hcpkp3d6r
I believe the a dollar collapse could spell instant recovery of Centamins Stirling share price, and that there’s a strong possibility of a collapse becoming a reality.
Shares on the major European stock market indices traded lower in the premarket on Thursday as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole summit.
On the COVID front, the number of daily cases in Italy climbed to the levels last seen in May.
The DAX lost 0.3% at 7:46 am CET, while the FTSE 100 slid by 0.36% at 7:44 am CET. In France, the CAC 40 was down by 0.15% at 7:49 am CET.
The euro and the pound were flat compared to the dollar, selling for 1.17685 and 1.37584 at 7:46 am ET, respectively.
Breaking the News / BU
I would tend to be a bit more lenient on the new CEO, who has been in the saddle for a bit more than 12 months. Generally the first 12 months of a CEO's tenure is spent for a large company, entails learning the state of the mines/operations/asset base/management, then taking out the garbage (can be management, staff, non performing assets, never to perform assets/liabilities), restructuring, sometimes refinancing, refocussing, ...and setting sale.
This is why the LOM discussions are very important next month, as the new CEO should reveal more detail on how he sees the asset base now after his first 12 months, and how he intends to monetarise the asset base in the LOM
The RESOURCE to RESERVE conversion, is simplisitically a function of gold price, costs, and certainty of the geological and geo met and geotech model. The evidence suggests that the last CEO's did not have their finger on the pulse (being polite), or were not across the detail. The evidence of the last 12 months suggest the new CEO has cleaned the RESOURCE RESERVE table and is across the detail.
What is going to be important is the big and detailed picture coming up to be revealed in the LOM meeting and accompanying notes. I will be watching along the lines of my previous notes, and also any explanations as to why there have been down grades/ or even upgrades, and of course the exploration story in the LOM.
I wont comment much on the privileged few who scurry within the walls of the biggest tax haven in the world ("the City"), but what a privileged life, which is hopefully coming to an end, whereby they will have to compete on a level playing field. They will find it is differentout there.
best
the Gnome
For those queuing up to praise the current management team , just remember the share price has dropped nearly 55% in the past year. .so if you wish , by all means be impressed by glossy and slick presentations explaining to you how they have destroyed 55% of your wealth over the past year if you had shares in them at that time.
The key question to ask of course is why the 55% drop in share price ...the answer is simple ..the city lost confidence in the company and management team when they down graded production forecasts ...it doesn't pay to disappoint the city in terms of under delivering . Furthermore the downgrades didn't only cover one year , they cover 3 years... and ignore management terminology of 'resetting' production levels and instead, translate it into 'reducing' production levels and for the next 3 years and inevitably, by definition, EPS , not just for this year but for the next two as well ..
Lots of waste stripping going on etc ,to remedy the situation , but this is merely acting after the horse has bolted ..this should have been done before. What on earth was the audit and risk committee doing .
So you might ask , why am I investing in the shares.. well that is what I do ..I buy to the sound of the sirens and sell to the fanfare of the trumpets. .I got in at £1.03 so I am grateful to the board of Centamin for screwing up and allowing me to buy in at a cheap price. I accept the risk that the price could go even lower which is why I take a candid look at the prospects of recovery instead. I was hoping to piggy back off other people's research on this board, but there wasn't any of significance or relevance , other than an impolite suggestion from Mr Bond to conduct my own thorough research . Well that didn't take long .
So the reason why I am still invested here is because the city invariably over reacts to bad news which in Centamins case, came with the a anouncement of gold production reductions on 29th September 2020.when the price was £2.05 a share ...the following day the share price dropped 25% to £1.50 per share and by 6 weeks later , when the full implications of the announcement sunk in , the share price had fallen by 50% to £1.05 where it has languished since ..So I am now waiting for some good news to emerge , wait for the price to rise, and then sell, and move swiftly (hopefully within months ) to the next candidate . Centamin is a share that you should making stealth moves in and out of in the shortest possible time .. it is not a share to buy and hold forever. It has lost 50% of its share price over the past 11 years (excluding dividends)
Having read through all of the posts on this thread , the most pertinent question to ask , was posed by goldgnome which is where are the next 1 million ounces going to come from and when.
Good luck to all. ..this represents my own opinions so DYOR
It seems my first impressions were correct ...there is, as things stand only one proven economically viable mine at present (Sukari) which only has between 10 and 12 years of productive life left , (goldgnome.. to me Sukari is one gold mine , Mr Horan thinks it's one gold mine too because he refers to Doropo as their potential second mine in their interim report )
So even though the Group has 14.3 million ounces of gold RESOURCES ( 9 milion at Sukari and 5 million at Doropo) , only 5 million of these can be classified as gold RESERVES ...which are all at Sukari which is where the 12 life of mine comes from ..
For the uninitiated this means that of the 14 million ounces of gold discovered by Cetamin, only 5 million of that can be extracted PROFITABLY.
Yes of course , they maybe be able to unlock more mining reserves as time progresses , but at present , Doropo is the only area with possible potential , and they won't know whether it is or not until Quarter 2 of 2022 after the results of the feasibility study becomes available. Remember that the prospect for Balti West has already been ruled out of future plans due to them not being economically viable.
The worrying thing is that this time last year , there were supposed to be 7 million ounces of gold RESERVES at Sukari , but that has now been revised downwards to 5 million even though only 0.,5 million was natural depletion due to production .. that doesn't inspire confidence in the management team ..you also have to search closely within the 230 page annual report to unearth that .
Even though there will undoubtedly be new gold discoveries , the conversion of them into realised EPS in the Financial Statements will be many years away , and stockmarkets are more concerned with the here and now , rather than years into the future.
A sobering thought .
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6834931045968834560/
The pictures (posted 4 days ago)show some pretty primitive devices. Are they basically washing away the sand and letting the gold settle to the bottom like artisanal miners?
I would have thought these guys needed a financial contract with the EMRA before extracting gold - regardless of the miniscule amounts. I hope this is not indicative of things to come i.e. every man and his donkey combing through the desert.
Memories of good old mac69 and his centrifuge...
Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist: http://Europac.com |
Chairman: http://SchiffGold.com | Founder: http://EpacFunds.com , http://EuroPacBank.com | Host: http://SchiffRadio.com
Puerto Rico, 549.5K Followers
"It's noteworthy that while today's rise in long-term bond yields is hurting #gold, is not helping the dollar. If bond yields keep rising, and gold starts shrugging it off too, look out. #Inflation is bad for bonds, but good for gold. So bond yields and gold should rise together!"
A tweet from Centamin today about recycling balls... I like recycling, really I do, but...
$CEY is building a culture of improvement, looking for ways to #innovate in an everchanging world. Reducing waste and costs, and supporting local businesses, #CEY partnered with UCF-Egypt to recycle and resupply #Sukari grinding media
#values #social #gold http://loom.ly/MkiZmdA
https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1430481716108533760
<<------------------------------------->>
Improvement must begin w/ better disclosure to shareholders. Where's the long awaited maiden resource for Napelepera & Wadaradoo #gold deposits in #BurkinaFaso ?
Please release the data before selling these assets.
@EndeavourMining
@BarrickGold
@AndrewBellBNN
@TheFCA
@OSC_News
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1430540058721935370
Now Mark Campbell is back and they have funding they could well be mining soon.
For year s he was starved of funds .
SP shooting up. - Over 12.5% yesterday and over 6% so far today. - Try as you may, yer can't knock it.
Hi Mr Gnome, I agree The British East India company has indeed a great deal to answer for, Blair was foolish enough to feel the obligation to prove he wasn't left leaning by morphing into Tory mode and committing the UK military into becoming the lapdog to George Bush.!
A friend of mine has a very nice antique patio door curtain rail that was made from several 303 army rifle barrels welded together, it was given to him by his grandfather who's father had once served in Afghanistan as an army RSM,.
This curtain rain was formally part of a spacial gun built over open furnaces by Afghan tribesmen warriors, these tribesmen would watch where the British army spotter planes where taking off from and then take up position on a nearby hillside from where they would shoot the pilot through the head or if that failed just shoot the bi plan'se fuel tank!
Its been a long and hopeless history of foreign intervention in Afghanistan, and without tryiing to be provacative, seems to reach at least back to the British and the Opium Wars with a kick off in 1839 (w eshould not mentionthe British East India Company) ...., topped up by Blair's (what was wrong with this guy?, Iraq, Iran, Libya..yawn) stupidity in 2006 and deployment of British troops
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/jan/04/military.afghanistan
... I do have to worry about the endless rhetoric of sovereignty, versus the actions of continual invasion and occupation ..etc
An embarassment of stupidity and conflicts of interest,
I feel for the women of Afghanistan, for the ordinary people of Afghanistan who deserve so much better than the endless foreign f/ups
best
the gnome
Quite so after the underhand deal that has been agreed with the Taliban by the Trump administration who knows what the CIA have been up to, the American instigated supposed nation building in Afghanistan was a disgraceful waste of lives, money and the future of women.
As Tony Benn pointed out in past many times these international disputes and issues should be dealt with by the United Nations, not by the US, UK , China or Russia!
I await to see the total number of all deaths in the UK for 2020..
Iran attacking tankers is not proven..