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Hi Dasut & Mr Gnome,
Obviously its difficult to judge without knowing all the details or even the company criteria of how the decision to award Capital the contract was reached, although when considering the factors we do know, not least the urgency of the situation then it would seem to make sense to go with a known contractor who has the equipment available a working knowledge of Sukari with whom the company has an established a good working relationship.
Indeed in local and central government when considering contractors it isn't always necessary to go out to tender if for instance speed is a priority and it can be shown that the contractor has a proven track record (i.e. already a known company/contractor on the "Preferred List").
Unfortunately during the "Pandemic" the government of the day used 'Urgency" as an excuse not to go to tender, or even use companies on the preferred list and in the majority of instance used newly setup up outfits with no track record who charged exorbitant prices for unfit for purpose products and services!
So It is always prudent to be able to justify the contract award which it seems is where Centamin is failing at present.
goldgnome I thoroughly agree although item 2 can be overcome by employing the local dealer responsible for the equipment supply clearing customs, delivery to site and assembled ready to go.
New companies entering any new developing market is very difficult and Capital would have gone through this in their early days. As we both agree this is where they had a considerable advantage over others wishing to compete.
As a Cat dealer I was often confronted with a tender for equipment that included many items that we normally wouldn't get involved with and advised if bidding it is all or nothing.
If Cowichan has proof of wrong doing then I would suggest he writes personally to Horgan naming names but I don't see what advantage would be gained by Centamin's new team offering a sweetheart deal to Capital.
Unless there was a need to make an upfront deposit that has been misconstrued.
Yep, the only thing that moves the SP is economic data primarily from USA (there's a fair bit out this week so check your calendars). This impacts stocks in general and commodities eg. The other is RNS and we all know the date of the next scheduled one here. The rest of the rumours, twitter stuff, detail etc is all pure speculation and does zero to the SP.
See this moving much higher through the levels
Return to 200p+ is on the cards this year imo
Plus a veey healthy dividend from the present entry.
Spot on Goldgnome.
In 3 months CEY is up 30 pence.
Price is due to sentiment, its clear not many listen to this BB.
European stock markets are on track for a positive open on Wednesday, with traders awaiting the release of a new batch of economic data, as well as the latest minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting.
Markets in Europe are also in a positive momentum following yesterday's publication of Germany's preliminary inflation report, in which the figure is set to decline more than expected.
The DAX gained 0.10% at 8:07 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.33%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.28%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.14% a minute later.
At 7:59 am CET, the euro improved by 0.17% against the dollar, selling for $1.05702, and the pound grew by 0.11% to go for $1.19866.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy hump y’al
Gold pushing $1850’s
Plus over 1/2 a %
Perhaps I am missing something. To go into Egypt and set yourself up as a Mining Services Contractor, you would need to have a "contract in hand". To have a contract in hand in a competitive bid process is interesting when one has no experience in the country, but does have an inkling that there are lots of speed humps...
This could be problematical if you do not know the "Egyptian system", and lets just pick a case in point...or 2...
1. employing local people (for every expat I think you have to employ 9 local people - who have next to no skills in mining services when there has not been a mining industry in Egypt?). Just how is this factored into the work flow and management structure, the bid price, the project risk analysis etc...
2. getting equipment into and out of the countries. Knowing it is a problem is not solving the problem. How do you factor this into your bid price as it represents a potential significant risk
and so on and so forth. Working in Egypt, is a very Egyptian affair, and the Mining Industry really does not exist, apart from Centamin.
So to get a new Mining Services contractor into the country, one would have to work with the contractor, and try and tie up as much alignment as possible, knowing the alignment will not be perfect.
The risk must be dealt with somehow.
What have I missed...I have tried to be brief
regards
The Gnome
I agree with what you are saying about the waste there Mr T. If they had been clearing it as they were going along, it would not have become a problem-----AND it probably would have been cheaper than doing it in one massive effort.
We would probably not have gotten the same OZ's of gold out of the ground, or the decent dividends, but things would have been going along a lot smoother and the share price would be higher than it is now. SO--swings and roundabouts but generally we have lost more by the drop in the (artificially high) share price (or even a true one) than we gained in dividends.
The high share price and dividends suited the people who got out in time and had the knowledge to do so.
Lets hope that things start to get better for us soon. I think a bit of cheer would do us all good.
Interesting Mostafa is obviously a Fire Suppression specialist, he has been with Capital for 3 months and transferred from Centamin/Barminco.
Fire Suppression equipment is normally supplied by a specialist supplier that also comes with a very strong insurance to underpin a disaster to a very expensive piece of equipment.
Caterpillar don't supply fire suppression systems due to the need for the in country specialist support and the need for a very reliable insurance.
I don't know for a fact but would suggest Mostafa/Capital is underwritten by the supplier of the Fire Suppression system.
Hi Tony,
So both parties must have a pretty accurate idea of what's been spent so far and the time to finish the job, where is the information?
Maybe , but then had Sukari had a properly qualified mining manager who would have implemented a proper waste clearance program since 2015 then there wouldn't have been the need to spend $590 million now to possibly enable ongoing yearly production of 450, 000 - 500,000, which is considerably less than Centamin's Youssef EL Raghy and Andrew Pardy were boasting about about in the media in 2018 three weeks prior to yet another unexpected encounter of low grades which they again glossed over by high grading and ignoring the wastes piling up!
That said any extra profit made by high grading and some has now been more than lost and we are paying to put things right!extra profit has now been lost
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/30602/Sukari-to-produce-600-000-ounces-of-gold-in-2018
Not to mention the many millions of dollars spent for no return (albeit a nice little earner for the drilling contractor ) for no return!
So I do hope the lender carried out proper due diligence !
CEO Martin Horgan told Mining Journal that Sukari “couldn't deliver a bloody pizza” over the past few years !
See the Capital website the new CEO of Capital was previously the CEO of Barminco - coincidence !!!
https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Announcements/CAPD-2022-08-CEO-Announcement_20220902_Website_FINAL.pdf
Centamin's big dividend has served as a 'get out of jail free' card for management far too long
'arrogance, lack of transparency, complacency and that investors money held in the company can be taken for granted. Hence the sensitivity on poor communications, supplying vague data, low balling to meet targets that pay management well, poor decision making as scrutiny outside of the board is ignored.'
this is all true - therefore it's up to us shareholders to ask questions and not just the no brainers - it's clear the 'professional' analysts don't ask anything that might embarrass our CEO or his team
one of those key questions is the cost analysis/rationale Centamin used to determine owner operated vs Capital operated waste movement - I don't expect Mr Horgan can answer this question truthfully (but please Mr Horgan prove me wrong!) because it was a sweetheart deal with Capital's former CEO making $ off the books
but Capital is now working on (new?) underground equipment for Sukari. Point being haven't seen Capital involved with Sukari's underground equipment before.
Mostafa Abdelrahman - Fire suppression system Team leader at Capital Limited
We strived for the perfection to Protect our #BOGGER to achieve the safety for the operation process underground.
#firesuppressionsystem installation
#caterpillar
#mining
pictures here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mostafa-abdelrahman-0b59b9119_bogger-firesuppressionsystem-caterpillar-activity-7014869268768952321-MQB4
You don't secure $150m with a crap business plan
Step by step up the mountain :))
Gold futures now at $1836 per ounce. Either gold is running with bull traps or a genuine breakout is being worked through. What favours a breakout as the Chinese New Year physical buying. The Year of the rabbit kicks off on 22 January. Gold sometimes rally before the lunar New Year or afterwards. Another feature is hot first day for the new year and we then get a sell off for the remainder of the week before stepping up again next week.
That is why I think it is a 4 year contract so not quite so dramatic. To me however it is like a Water torture a drip that just goes on and on.
Hopefully we will start to see some justification with improved production because of the ability to access multiple benches and build a continuity of ounces.
Given that Capital are now a couple of years into the contract they will have moved considerable tonnage so would be interesting to understand how much ore has already been exposed.
Johnathon DA Silva.
There is he admits a possibility of 1880 soon.
If that were so ,it would negate the AISC somewhat.
The wild card.
There's one thing for sure which is glaringly obvious: - The waste pile might be slow in disappearing but the'Cash pile' has rapidly disappeared. - It was a treasury contingency that afforded some degree of protection. Now it's disappearing fast and leaving Centamin exposed. - Sotolo makes a good point I feel. - The CC is gonna be an interesting experience.
Centamin has around $160M plus cash. My comment related to Egypt. The company has reduced quite a bit of costs but they are still 8% higher than before and a lot of costs in 2021 overran into 2022. They also had a lot of additional operational costs by replacing subcontractors and doing their own mining. The overall figure still comes out to 16% although the Board did guide those costs for 2022.
Looking back !
Dec. 19, 2018 10:45 AM ETCentamin plc (CELTF), CEE:CA2 Comments
Summary
Grades are dropping significantly at the Sukari Mine of Centamin, far below planned reserve grades.
They are soon starting up underground.
The stock seems overvalued on a NPV5 basis.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229201-kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis
Nov 2015
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-out-while-going-is-good
The case against Centamin was brought by Egyptian lawyer Hamdy Fakharany, who argued that the state was not receiving sufficient returns and should stop operations at Sukari.
https://www.reuters.com/article/centamin-idUKL5E8M8DY520121108
Westhouse Securities says: 'It is obviously positive news for the company, and reinforces our belief that the company is likely to win its appeal. However, until the challenge is removed we are retaining our 18% discount rate on the stock.'
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-eyes-end-of-legal-pains
Good Points Dasut,
Information such as this is essential for shareholders, it keeps them informed and helps to avoid possible misunderstandings or misconceptions!
Perhaps you will put them to Centamin in writing and I will do the same, possibly Cowichan will raise them via his social media links?
Sorry Typo below should read "Interesting assumptions regarding my Centamin shareholding",
True the Centamin management made a lot of money, albeit by short term and unsustainable practice but unfortunately they made some big mistakes and bad decisions for which we have to pay the price!