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I've been trying to find the company's previous AISC guidance for 2023.
Best I can do is P36 of the Investor Presentation for December 2021: 450-475,000oz @ $975-1200/oz sold.
This was a hasty AISC upgrade from two months previously in the October 21 presentation (p10) : 450-475 @ $900-1075
From this point the company has not mentioned AISC guidance again as far as I can see - but I've got a niggling memory that production was upgraded to 460-480, just can't find it?
The fierce inflation of the last year must have nudged the predicted AISC numbers higher - perhaps the reason the company hasn't mentioning AISC guidance for more than a year. I'm itching to know what they think this number will be.
On a more cheery note, GP 1828 as I write - which in the 3bear cave warrants a lower case woohoo.
Pardey is now heading up Predictive Discovery since Jan 4 2022, and they are only down 33% in that time period.
Others of course are worse.
I our focus shold be fair and square on the future. Hold the board and mngt accountable, loud and clear. 24/7
good luck to us all...
the gnome
Yes Mr T-----------we now know what has gone on in the past but we cannot do anything about it. They could have acted earlier and stopped the problem, or at least slowed it down to a managable level, without having too much impact. Obvioulsy, the longer they left it , the worse the problem became. I would have thought that the more they shift from the pile, that it would become quicker, easier and cheaper to remove?
That Martin Horgan seems to be doing the job properly now, suggests he is in it for the long haul.
We could do with some good luck now---------Gold price going up, a good find, basel 3 taking effect or a combination of those things.
How do you see the Basel 3 thing going? Will it have an impact or be ignored.
I did make some Plum and blackcurrant jam with fruit out of the garden. Bloody lovely stuff :-)
All the best for the New Year Mr T. Please try to not let political and other things get you too wound up.
HI Dasut & 3Bear,
I agree the high AISC is certainly a major concern and expense to us shareholders, what really annoys me is that if a competent and fit for purpose Sukarii mine manager had ben in post rather than the lying wastrel and lazy bugger Youssef El Raghy we likely wouldn't now be in this dire situation!
I have done some research and I am unable to find any other example of the qualifications of Egyptian Police Captain fulfilling the criteria for the post of a gold mine general manager!
Some of you may also recall the bull**** given to us over the years by Josef El Raghy CEO even at the Jersey 2014 AGM and then he sold shad loads of shares @ £!.74 and stepped down to take a back seat!
We were conned by the El Raghy family and Andrew Pardey, at least now Martin Horgan and his team are ding the job properly!
Ceratainlu
3bear no problem understand your numbers and hope to see a few more ounces, slightly higher gold price but like you the AISC is the worry.
ha nope sorry folks
Hoping this might make it easier to read. HNY all.
Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue 194.5m 794.4m 733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised 1721/oz 1792/oz 1797/oz -0.3%
AISC 165m 622.6m 502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold 1460 1405 1234 +13.9%
Too all, from Europe . ?
Below is my guess for the Q4 results and FY22 numbers. I've been having trouble tabulating so apols if they're not so easy to read.
Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue $194.5m $794.4m $733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised $1721/oz $1792/oz $1797/oz -0.3%
AISC $165m $622.6m $502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold $1460 $1405 £1234 +13.9%
Production, sales and revenue all looking good.
It is the market reaction to the AISC figure that concerns me - up almost a quarter on 2021, although we have known about this for some time.
I think the AISC guidance for 2023 will be a key driver of share price movement on Jan 20 but FWIW I believe 2023 will be even better than 2022 at Sukari, so bring it on.
Happy New Year and good luck everyone.
11,815 views 24 Dec 2022
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire shines a light on his whistleblowing origins, which began following an investigation with the CTFC and DOJ into national-level banks rigging the price of gold and silver in 2008.
The industry veteran digs deeper into his roots within the precious metals industry and examines how the Kinesis platform addresses the issues he faced in his whistleblowing career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Yzg7Dtg17w&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
LinkedIn Post
2 hours ago
Really, i'm happy to work with you Mr TIDIANE KONATE and gaining many valueable informations during your #training program in Egypt, hope you all the best.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mostafa-ibrahim-ab4a81166_training-activity-7014583500775256065-zHYH
Mostafa Ibrahim - Junior Exploration Geologist at Barrick gold corporation, Cofounder of (SME) Society of mining, metallurgy and exploration Student chapter
Giza, Al Jizah, Egypt
Note:
Barrick is bringing in its experienced miners from Cote D'Ivoire to run the programs.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tidiane-konate-84696a86/
golgnome yes I understand and we are in agreement which is why I wanted to emphasise how relatively simple the muck shift contract is to calculate/compare and the advantage that Capital has will have made the difference.
If it had been a full on Contract Mining project I am sure the competition would have been far greater given the increased complexity and think Capital's advantage reduced considerably.
Would Capital be successful at Doropo for a full on contract mining job, Questionable?
This is where the well known and well established contractors will fight hard and the cost comparison between owner and contract becomes very close.
Already established infrastructures, start up fleets, established people and local knowledge of sub contractors, experience in both drilling and contract mining jobs, reducing risks and up front capital expenditure on equipment.
Thanks Dasut
This is what I implied, somewhat vaguely, in a previous post
When you start UP, you need to START UP very quickly, and the bankers look for risks which they can leverage off of'
Thanks Dasut
This is what I implied, somewhat vaguely, in a previous post
When you start UP, you need to START UP very quickly, and the bankers look for risks which they can leverage off of'
Somnamna I would like to see more detail on the waste material contract especially given the reason is to move material quickly and 4 years isn't what I call quickly. So compared to what is my question. As for transparency I am not sure that this pretty simple to understand muck shift leaves a great deal to cover up financially as it would be very easy to see any discrepancies especially when using same size trucks and loading tools.
I would be surprised if all contractors asked to bid didn't use the same software to give them the basis of their bid and likewise Centamin and the independent organisation evaluating bids also using the same software.
Mantrac/Cat will have been asked for equipment life or 4 year costs which would be the same for all bidders.
As I have said previously the costs will have been less for Capital as they already have an infrastructure and therefore economies of scale.
Thanks Mr T.
There are steadily more and more "partnerships" between drilling companies and exploration and mining companies. Be interesting to know how (and when?) the drill companies decide on which company to drill for equity in, and which not, and what the nature of the partnership is (do they get free options, etc?). It would not be open slather, as most Junior exploration companies are financially and/or intellecutally near bankrupt.
thanks
the Gnome
( and good to see you back Mr T!)
European stocks were lower in Friday's premarket trading as investors look to the ultimate session in 2022 amid recession fears, hoping that the United States Federal Reserve may slow interest rate hikes in an effort to achieve employment balance. The traders also scrutinize the positive effects of China's reopening, while countries introduce testing requirements for Chinese travelers due to the COVID-19 surge.
The FTSE 100 lost 0.20% at 8:00 am CET, the DAX fell 0.13% and the CAC 40 was down 0.31% simultaneously.
The euro decreased 0.23% compared to the dollar to sell for 1.06436 at 7:59 am CET and the pound declined 0.18% against the greenback to go for 1.20455 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MX
Last trading day of the year
U.K. markets trading on a 1/2 day
8:00 — 12:30pm
*Other bourses around the world may differ!
Happy Friday y’al, enjoy your holiday weekend.
Not a bad sign for CEY and the goldies ....
https://www.ft.com/content/e0983ebb-bbe0-4d33-8517-e19fa06e1a77
regards
The Gnome
Well noted Dasut, a similar situation existed in the oil and gas industry until it was reaslised how easy it was to tilt a contract in the direction of a fvaoured bidder, be it at company level or by management in their own, often personnal interets .
Well noted Goldnome re fleet avaiability, I would have expercted that to be a techinical crieriteria balanced against need for early start and price diffrerential.
My feelin g on the waste contract is Centamin through Buchanan could do a better job of informing and communicatiing, espcially the costs v future benefits in more detail. This way Shareholders could understand better the rational.
Hi Cowichan
As always with your posts nail on the head observation/.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (a la Comex and the Fed) can only manipulate and obscure for so long before real world pressures burst the dam
Or does the saying dont fight the Fed still reign.
Kindest regards and thanks for the work and insight you bring to this board
Bob
Hi Cowichan
As always with your posts nail on the head observation/.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (a la Comex and the Fed) can only manipulate and obscure for so long before real world pressures burst the dam
Or does the saying dont fight the Fed still reign.
Kindest regards and thanks for the work and insight you bring to this board
Bob
Central banks are scooping up gold at the fastest pace since 1967, with analysts pinning China and Russia as big buyers
Acknowledging its intake — but also possibly trying to signal its limited role — the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported earlier this month that in November it made its first increase in gold holdings since 2019, with a 32-tonne bump worth about $1.8bn.
Yet the gold industry says Chinese buying is almost certainly higher.
Mark Bristow, chief executive of Barrick Gold, the world’s second-largest gold miner, said China had bought tonnes of gold around the high-200s mark, based on his discussions with numerous sources.
https://www.ft.com/content/e0983ebb-bbe0-4d33-8517-e19fa06e1a77
My Thoughts:
How long can physical gold demand stay 'hidden' ?
Tibbs As we have seen from Cowichan's input the Mining world is somewhat incestuous and mercenary with people from mining companies jumping from one to the other for improved financial rewards. mining and drilling contractors are no different. Machine equipment dealers also have their tech guys tempted to work for all of the above companies.
Early days Pharoah Gold saw people moving from Tanzania from the likes of Barrick North Mara, AngloGold Ashanti's Geita. Capital had a base in Mwanza supporting the Tanzanian mining projects so no surprise that they were introduced to Pharoah Gold.
It is also common place to see contractors moving with Mining companies particularly into new mining areas. Ashanti Goldfields move to Geita in Tanzania saw African Mining Services venture into Tanzania as Tanzania developed then other West African Contractors spread their wings.
The only comment I can make is that getting equipment into and out of Egypt is a major headache, and delays are the norm, it is just a matter of how many months if not more than a year. There was and still is limited mining industry sevices in Egypt...this may have flavored decisions...