Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Oriole Resources PLC said it will write down the carrying value of its 24.94% interest in privately-owned Thani Stratex Resources Limited (TSR) after its Hodine licence in Egypt was formally relinquished.
On 19 October 2022, Oriole reported that Red Sea Resources Limited (RSR) had spent US$2.2mln on exploration at Hodine, specifically the Anbat project, but that it would not be exercising its option to acquire an 85% interest in the licence.
The decision was made on the basis that the exploration programmes had not significantly improved the existing 2017 inferred Mineral Resource Estimate at Anbat of 209,000 ounces grading 1.11 grammes per tonne gold.
Furthermore, the Egyptian mining authority, EMRA, had concluded that the 2017 MRE did not satisfy the definition of a commercial discovery under the Egyptian Mining Code. Accordingly, RSR, therefore, forfeited its right to an 85% interest in the licence and TSR resumed full control.
With the licence due to expire on 31 December 2022 and no possibility of extending its tenure, TSR has advised the company that it has now formally relinquished the licence.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/oriole_resources/news/regulatory_news/story/x4n6jdr
December 30, 2022
While most of the world’s metal never sees the inside of an LME warehouse, exchange inventory levels are important because every short seller who holds a contract to expiry must deliver physical metal registered in an LME warehouse. The LME has introduced new rules to allow deferral to prevent future squeezes, but the exemptions come with costly fees.
https://www.mining.com/web/lme-ends-chaotic-year-with-metal-stockpiles-perilously-low/
My Thoughts:
When the house makes the rules, the dealer always wins
Maintaining continuity is the key phrase, and ASAP.
By the end of this year it will be just history.
Then with new ventures ,especially in Egypt, hopefully much higher production figures.
Spoonington agree with most everything you say and have a great deal of respect for Sami as he worked extremely hard to get Sukari which was always a dream and passion of his, up and running.
I do however disagree with one major issue and that is Centamin should never had gotten into the position of having to enter into a 4 year waste stripping contract, to enable the production guys to have the flexibility to maintain continuity.
It is however history and now we have to suffer the consequences of the necessary evil.
Agree, gold starting to look bullish on the charts.
Thanks Spoonington.
Without Sami El Raghy there would be no Centamin.
Without the efforts of previous management there would not have been the large cash reserves to enable Horgan to engage in the massive & financially inefficient waste stripping program.
I am well aware that the previous management made mistakes in being too aggressive in targeting higher grade areas but overall their performance in terms of gold mined, dividends paid & cash reserves accumulated was excellent - your repeated & baseless allegations that they in some way conned shareholders & engaged in a pump & dump strategy are uncalled for.
As for Youssef, you may not be aware that business is conducted differently in Egypt to what you are used to. Youssef was there for his contacts & ability to cut through red tape without engaging in bribery or other unsavoury practices - there were others employed who had the technical knowledge required. His abilities are important in Egypt - probably well before your time in Centamin, but we spent a period of 18 months before production started when work on the site was suspended, drill rigs stood idle & it was a terrible time - to my knowledge this was caused by Sami refusing to grease the wheels of bureaucracy through the payment of bribes which, whilst the correct action for the long term, caused the company & its shareholders a great deal of pain. Having someone like Youssef to avoid such occurrences creates significant value.
Before you **** off the previous management & in particular Sami, it would be appropriate for you to look at the history of Centamin & who it was that built it into a successful, producing gold miner.
I've been trying to find the company's previous AISC guidance for 2023.
Best I can do is P36 of the Investor Presentation for December 2021: 450-475,000oz @ $975-1200/oz sold.
This was a hasty AISC upgrade from two months previously in the October 21 presentation (p10) : 450-475 @ $900-1075
From this point the company has not mentioned AISC guidance again as far as I can see - but I've got a niggling memory that production was upgraded to 460-480, just can't find it?
The fierce inflation of the last year must have nudged the predicted AISC numbers higher - perhaps the reason the company hasn't mentioning AISC guidance for more than a year. I'm itching to know what they think this number will be.
On a more cheery note, GP 1828 as I write - which in the 3bear cave warrants a lower case woohoo.
Pardey is now heading up Predictive Discovery since Jan 4 2022, and they are only down 33% in that time period.
Others of course are worse.
I our focus shold be fair and square on the future. Hold the board and mngt accountable, loud and clear. 24/7
good luck to us all...
the gnome
Yes Mr T-----------we now know what has gone on in the past but we cannot do anything about it. They could have acted earlier and stopped the problem, or at least slowed it down to a managable level, without having too much impact. Obvioulsy, the longer they left it , the worse the problem became. I would have thought that the more they shift from the pile, that it would become quicker, easier and cheaper to remove?
That Martin Horgan seems to be doing the job properly now, suggests he is in it for the long haul.
We could do with some good luck now---------Gold price going up, a good find, basel 3 taking effect or a combination of those things.
How do you see the Basel 3 thing going? Will it have an impact or be ignored.
I did make some Plum and blackcurrant jam with fruit out of the garden. Bloody lovely stuff :-)
All the best for the New Year Mr T. Please try to not let political and other things get you too wound up.
HI Dasut & 3Bear,
I agree the high AISC is certainly a major concern and expense to us shareholders, what really annoys me is that if a competent and fit for purpose Sukarii mine manager had ben in post rather than the lying wastrel and lazy bugger Youssef El Raghy we likely wouldn't now be in this dire situation!
I have done some research and I am unable to find any other example of the qualifications of Egyptian Police Captain fulfilling the criteria for the post of a gold mine general manager!
Some of you may also recall the bull**** given to us over the years by Josef El Raghy CEO even at the Jersey 2014 AGM and then he sold shad loads of shares @ £!.74 and stepped down to take a back seat!
We were conned by the El Raghy family and Andrew Pardey, at least now Martin Horgan and his team are ding the job properly!
Ceratainlu
3bear no problem understand your numbers and hope to see a few more ounces, slightly higher gold price but like you the AISC is the worry.
ha nope sorry folks
Hoping this might make it easier to read. HNY all.
Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue 194.5m 794.4m 733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised 1721/oz 1792/oz 1797/oz -0.3%
AISC 165m 622.6m 502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold 1460 1405 1234 +13.9%
Too all, from Europe . ?
Below is my guess for the Q4 results and FY22 numbers. I've been having trouble tabulating so apols if they're not so easy to read.
Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue $194.5m $794.4m $733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised $1721/oz $1792/oz $1797/oz -0.3%
AISC $165m $622.6m $502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold $1460 $1405 £1234 +13.9%
Production, sales and revenue all looking good.
It is the market reaction to the AISC figure that concerns me - up almost a quarter on 2021, although we have known about this for some time.
I think the AISC guidance for 2023 will be a key driver of share price movement on Jan 20 but FWIW I believe 2023 will be even better than 2022 at Sukari, so bring it on.
Happy New Year and good luck everyone.
11,815 views 24 Dec 2022
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire shines a light on his whistleblowing origins, which began following an investigation with the CTFC and DOJ into national-level banks rigging the price of gold and silver in 2008.
The industry veteran digs deeper into his roots within the precious metals industry and examines how the Kinesis platform addresses the issues he faced in his whistleblowing career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Yzg7Dtg17w&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
LinkedIn Post
2 hours ago
Really, i'm happy to work with you Mr TIDIANE KONATE and gaining many valueable informations during your #training program in Egypt, hope you all the best.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mostafa-ibrahim-ab4a81166_training-activity-7014583500775256065-zHYH
Mostafa Ibrahim - Junior Exploration Geologist at Barrick gold corporation, Cofounder of (SME) Society of mining, metallurgy and exploration Student chapter
Giza, Al Jizah, Egypt
Note:
Barrick is bringing in its experienced miners from Cote D'Ivoire to run the programs.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tidiane-konate-84696a86/
golgnome yes I understand and we are in agreement which is why I wanted to emphasise how relatively simple the muck shift contract is to calculate/compare and the advantage that Capital has will have made the difference.
If it had been a full on Contract Mining project I am sure the competition would have been far greater given the increased complexity and think Capital's advantage reduced considerably.
Would Capital be successful at Doropo for a full on contract mining job, Questionable?
This is where the well known and well established contractors will fight hard and the cost comparison between owner and contract becomes very close.
Already established infrastructures, start up fleets, established people and local knowledge of sub contractors, experience in both drilling and contract mining jobs, reducing risks and up front capital expenditure on equipment.
Thanks Dasut
This is what I implied, somewhat vaguely, in a previous post
When you start UP, you need to START UP very quickly, and the bankers look for risks which they can leverage off of'
Thanks Dasut
This is what I implied, somewhat vaguely, in a previous post
When you start UP, you need to START UP very quickly, and the bankers look for risks which they can leverage off of'
Somnamna I would like to see more detail on the waste material contract especially given the reason is to move material quickly and 4 years isn't what I call quickly. So compared to what is my question. As for transparency I am not sure that this pretty simple to understand muck shift leaves a great deal to cover up financially as it would be very easy to see any discrepancies especially when using same size trucks and loading tools.
I would be surprised if all contractors asked to bid didn't use the same software to give them the basis of their bid and likewise Centamin and the independent organisation evaluating bids also using the same software.
Mantrac/Cat will have been asked for equipment life or 4 year costs which would be the same for all bidders.
As I have said previously the costs will have been less for Capital as they already have an infrastructure and therefore economies of scale.
Thanks Mr T.
There are steadily more and more "partnerships" between drilling companies and exploration and mining companies. Be interesting to know how (and when?) the drill companies decide on which company to drill for equity in, and which not, and what the nature of the partnership is (do they get free options, etc?). It would not be open slather, as most Junior exploration companies are financially and/or intellecutally near bankrupt.
thanks
the Gnome
( and good to see you back Mr T!)
European stocks were lower in Friday's premarket trading as investors look to the ultimate session in 2022 amid recession fears, hoping that the United States Federal Reserve may slow interest rate hikes in an effort to achieve employment balance. The traders also scrutinize the positive effects of China's reopening, while countries introduce testing requirements for Chinese travelers due to the COVID-19 surge.
The FTSE 100 lost 0.20% at 8:00 am CET, the DAX fell 0.13% and the CAC 40 was down 0.31% simultaneously.
The euro decreased 0.23% compared to the dollar to sell for 1.06436 at 7:59 am CET and the pound declined 0.18% against the greenback to go for 1.20455 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MX
Last trading day of the year
U.K. markets trading on a 1/2 day
8:00 — 12:30pm
*Other bourses around the world may differ!
Happy Friday y’al, enjoy your holiday weekend.