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Hi Mr Gnome,
It is disregardful the way that so many for all the wrong reasons have received their pay off reward in the form of a seat in the 'Upper House".
However these last appointments by Boris Johnson who prorogued parliament, lied to the Queen , broke with impunity his owns government's Covid regulations and deceived the general public about the true consequences of leaving the EU must be some of the most undeserved and are an insult to our UK Parliament.
No wonder the general electorate have such little faith in our political and parliamentary system!
Hi Daz, agreed 480,000 oz isn't bad, but that said the astronomically high AISC as a direct result of over half a decade of intentionally high grading Sukari to pump up the guidance and hide the true state of the workings all of which has resulted in a loss of marker confidence and why the share remains where it is.
In 2015 Kees Dekker highlighted that the underground workings in many respects were crucial to achieving the predicted hoped for guidance as the open pit grades weren't that good, this was denied by Pardey on several occasions and in 2017/18 'Barminco"the drilling contractor allowed the sole but oh so essential LHDR to self destruct somebody had forgotten have a contingency plan ready, or even to order specialist spare parts!
It does seem the only thig you have to do to get into the House of Lords is go to an illegal set of parties and stand in the shadows of the PM, or something like that !!! LOL, of course helps if Boris is the PM...
We are doing it tough in Oz, ... Along with the 3.8 per cent growth in private sector wages, restaurant input costs have soared across the board. Retail prices for cheese are up 16 per cent in the year to June 30, oils and fat prices are up 14 per cent, bread is up 14 per cent, gas prices are up 26 per cent, and even spirits are up 11 per cent.
... there’s only so much people will pay for pasta!
The continued growth in services inflation is another factor causing angst among some economists. Service prices rose 6.3 per cent through the year, the highest rate since 2001, edging past the pace of price rises for goods. Service costs are weighing the MIners down, and they wont go away, or down, only up...as the RBA continues to put interest rates up ...
A big contributor to last month’s inflation result came from the continued rise in rents – up 2.5 per cent through the quarter and 6.7 per cent through the year – sparked by a huge mismatch between supply and demand, which is being exacerbated by the post-pandemic boom in overseas migration. Australia’s government policy on migration has led to intake or more than 400,000 in the year to June 30, and is expected to remain elevated at 315,000 this financial year...who are mostly renters, hence the increases in rent, and hence we have the Reserve Bank trying to correct for inbalances caused by Govt policy LOL
What a mess
the gnome
There is a lot I like about the results, now that I have finally caught up with them.~
Interesting to see the hedge at a $1900 POG. Then to look at the after tax IRR for Doropo at 41%., using $1900 POG The AISC is $1000 approx, and a low strip and met is fine. Hard to not see this project given a green light soon. Prep is the key to success in project start and ramp up, so I am happy to be quietly confident on this. This would make CEY a 610k ozs pa producer with a more comfortable AISC and 2 x 10 plus mine life mines in 2 jurisdictions in 2025.
Interesting to see the increase in tonnage coming from undergoound...at lower grade, but going owner operated is a far better way to go ...
just over 6,000 km2 of mineralised exploration permits, is a sound position to grown organically from.
I like the liquidiy, and would hate them to go and ruin the company on MandA
best
the gnome
If 480,000 ounces is in the “Spitoon of the Last stop saloon”…then I’d say someone else might like to get on the Cowichan bandwagon and get a better position too, Tibbs. Might Cowichan’s ‘balanced discussion’ simply be a poor facade for his true intentions and only feign compassion for fellow investors, it feels disingenuous.
The UAE-India economic agreement and how this may affect silver demand, along with the Q3/4 developments in the paper vs physical gold battle.
As BRICS nations meet to discuss a gold-backed currency and central banks around the world continue their gold-buying sprees, Andrew highlights how traders and investors can protect themselves from the possibility of a US Treasury default.
https://tinyurl.com/3js5m9vz
Hi Daz, fair comments, but then the company could if it chose correct any misconceptions share holders may have just by answering the individual concerned, 'Stone walling" is never a wise option as it leads to frustration and further misconceptions by all parties.
As to this forum the we all have the opportunity and indeed should contribute to the whole discussion, but that said without reverting to the awful rude spiteful behaviour of some other forums I could mention.
At least on here the majority of members know how to behave toward one another.
Tibbs
Cowichan, I respect your opinion, that you are already out and suggest the rest of us scarper to gold miners in countries in better jurisdictions. Well many of these are actually in African countries from Tanzania to Mali, which have proved at the least problematic, and even South Africa that looks far more dangerous than Egypt, or Argentina with its exchange controls, Peru with its left wing government that made Hoc tumble, Columbia with its insurgents, Chile with its increasing taxes on miners, problematic permitting etc etc. I would feel far safer with Centamin and a company that has not had its tax/royalties changed, mining in a peaceful out of the way area, in a country with an unpleasant leader but good for the company. It seems very fairly valued now, so there seems more likelihood of upside than down, in this long life near tier one miner, even if t is a shame that a main attraction, the high dividend, has reduced from most of the profit to min 30% tho actually a bit more. And a shame that they continue to pour money down African holes in the ground for their own aggrandisement, but overall it seems to me this is one of the safest gold miners to invest in rather than as you suggest super dangerous. So I am with Sisi Imho
Hi Mr Gnome,
Now that would worry me!
It would be bad form to disclose the size of my holding, but let me say that it is such that I feel I have every right to challenge Centamin and a right to honest answers, something that was obviously lacking in the past .
The last report was encouraging, the dividend is disappointing, but that said I am awaiting an improvement in both overall performance and the dividend!
If Cowichan or anyone else asks questions that are based on incorrect facts or media speculation then the company has every opportunity to answer them , indeed it is its best interests to do so!
Tibbs
Good Morning Daz,
There is nothing wrong in challenging the company on all manner of anything that is misunderstood or needs come clarification, indeed in a conversation with Martin Horgan he expressed the view that share holders have every right and should ask questions, it is healthy and the company has had and continues to have the opportunity too respond or engage in dialogue if it so chooses on all these enquires.
As a long term holder of Centamin I welcome Cowichan's enquiries and encourage all share holders not to behave like "Sheeple" and challenge anything and everything.
The failure to do so in the past and instead swallow the copious amounts of Pardey's & 'Youssefs s baloney is why Centamin is in the 'Spitoon" of the "Last stop saloon" .
It does seem a tad unbalanced....which does tend to diminish credibility or send people scurrying for motives
A sainthood? Perhaps a seat in the House of Lords?
the gnome
Thank you both for giving everyone the opportunity to have access to a much more balanced and informed presentation of the facts.
Your dialogue demonstrates how much better it is to debate a matter in a courteous and respectful manner which in turn encourages others to take part.
Best
Tibbs
Cowichan, your anti-Centamin/Egypt rhetoric is almost pathological. I’m interested in what’s driving that, what happened to you here, did you lose a lot of cash, or are you hoping to influence the price so you can take a position. I can’t think of any other reason you’d waste so much time on this board. Or, is it that Saint Cowichan is so overwhelmed with compassion for investors, that he is on a mission to enlighten them…I doubt it. 😇😅
Thank you for your balanced, honest posting.
Commentary/news articles - where do suggest I get correct info on Egypt?
For instance, here's an Egyptian journalist comment I read the other day:
"Between mismanagement of the economy, exchange rate problems, government weakness, and parliament's statements on transfers. Egyptians' remittances will decrease by at least 25-30% compared to last year, when remittances reached more than $30 billion."
https://twitter.com/asyooty_el
I read many such dire statements by academics living in Egypt. If I were making this stuff up myself perhaps you'd have a point - i.e. refraining from predicting a poor outcome for Centamin and Egypt.
But what is worse, staying invested in Centamin and losing one's investment - or getting out while their is still time & reinvesting in a better managed company in a much safer jurisdiction? I would think any reasonable person would choose safety - and wish the same for his neighbor?
Oh, one more thing. Don't you think Sisi is a certified lunatic? There is a video of him circulating where he's lecturing a stadium of people about his having a conversation with the 'Lord' . Sisi thinks he's some sort of prophet of God sent to deliver the Egyptians. That alone is worrying enough to stay away from investing until he's removed from power. Link here:
https://twitter.com/hossambahgat/status/1684893348069269504
One more point in his interview... Mr Samih Sawiris said (Actually for my tourism projects in Egypt, I pay less expenses now because the tourists pay me in dollars, and I pay my expenses in Egyptian pound, and as the value of the Egyptian pound has halved, so it's costing me less dollars to pay for things like electricity).. and he was very happy for that..
Which is exactly what I said about Centamin.. it's income is in dollars, while many expenses are in Egyptian pound, so the company is actually paying less for many things..
Hi Cowichan,
I'm back again as you are talking about Egypt :)
This article and the headline are completely misleading, incomplete and taken out of context..
The full interview with Mr Samih Sawiris is in this link..
https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/article/2023/05/03/samih-sawiris-inviestments-egypt-saudi-future
The reporter was talking to him about the dollar situation in Egypt, then she asked him (Have you stopped entering in new projects in Egypt for the time being due to the current dollar exchange rate/situation?)
He replied (Yes of course, I can't calculate any profits in this situation, so everyone is "waiting")..
Then, later in the conversation, she asked him (You showed interest before in Saudi Arabia.. Do you have any plans for projects in Saudi?)
He replied (Yes, I'm looking at a few things in Saudi and already in negotiations because Saudi is very promising and the recent development there is like a revolution because they have changed everything and it's up to date now and in a few years Saudi will be the biggest place for investment).. that's it!!
I can't see anything wrong with that.. a businessman found an opportunity for a few projects in Saudi Arabia.. that does not mean he is relocating.. Even football players are going to Saudi now because of the huge financial potential there.. it does not mean the premier League and La Liga are finished..
When Mr Naguib Sawiris started his gold company outside Egypt, this was not relocation.. it was an opportunity outside Egypt..
The 3 Sawiris brothers are by far the richest family in Egypt.. their huge projects and investments are everywhere.. they know how to make money in Egypt..
-----------------
Regarding (Public sector = loose money = corruption), Mr Sawiris was replying to someone asking him in a tweet (What are the reasons behind EgyptAir losses?)..
So his reply was because it is a public sector company with its finance not monitored which led to corruption.. He was not talking about (Egypt economic misfortune), and you could go back to the original tweet you posted..
You really need to take it easy on looking for something and blow it out of proportion to show that it's the end of Egypt and Centamin.. Of course there are many problems and negatives in both, I admit that, but it's not the end of days as you are making it..
One last question to you Cowichan.. what did you mean by (The end could be sooner than shareholders think) ?
Thanks for this healthy exchange which is useful for other shareholders and readers..
Siko
Egyptian billionaire and renowned businessman, Naguib Sawiris has defended the decision of his brother, Samih, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Orascom Development Holding Company, to suspend all investment activities in Egypt and relocate to Saudi Arabia.
"People should not assume bad faith in a family or in a person or individual like Samih or myself when we say something, (..) Today, many investors are afraid to come [to Egypt] because they do not know what the US dollar price will be tomorrow," Naguib said in a telephone interview with Al-Hadath Al-Youm TV channel, which he posted on his Twitter page.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230512-egypts-billionaire-naguib-sawiris-defends-brothers-decision-to-relocate-investments-to-saudi-arabia/
------------------------------>>>>
Yes, it's an article from May 12, 2023 - but the smart money always flees first.
More recently (June 25, 2023) Naguib posted on his twitter account (speaking about Egypt 's economic misfortunes) “Public sector = loose money = corruption.”
https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/1673009454298669059
Bottom Line: Centamin has had plenty of time to diversify out of Egypt, but management sat on their hands and wasted shareholder funds hand over fist - the end could be sooner than shareholders think.
Thanks Steve
Perhpas \I will become a day trader, none of this long term BS.
The levels of uncertainty not to mention lying and loss of trust is bewildering.
Here is some of the new entertainment in USA ... which passes for politics, or political comedy or something like that
The “Facebook Files” story Jordan went on to tell revealed a worst-case scenario for modern digital censorship, in which the White House not only strong-armed Facebook to remove content, but did so over exactly the kind of speech the Constitution was designed to protect, political satire. Not only that, but the White House’s demand had clear political motivation. A law professor would have a difficult time scripting an episode more directly offensive to the First Amendment.
https://www.racket.news/p/the-new-facebook-files-show-everything?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
|Just hopeless ...
best
the gnome
I don't always win - the last time I posted a trade here it was a loss- eg 2% S/L kicked in, when my profit didn't hit my target so I held too long- but I tend to protect myself this way, but let profits run sometimes which can be a fault. I don't worry about the SP at all eg if I sell with a profit and it jumps and I'm out too early, I'm equally happy to go back in at a far higher price if I think the data tells me to do so. Today has caught me out a little, but not to S/L level... yet... will see Monday. I'm surprised at the closing 93.7 as the FTSE, US is flying, and gold rose and yet CEY dropped, although UK miners didn't do great overall today. However, Barrick and Newmont going well now in USA as I type so will watch to see where they, and gold closes. Of course, I cannot trade until 08:00 Monday. Will see what that day brings. Have a good weekend.
Steve
I have done those type of trades in the past at 60,000 sells here on CEY. It is great when you can pull those kind of moves off. I presume it is Michelin star restaurant this weekend or something nice. Tony
I went back in again after US data released @~94. Surprised it dropped a bit, but expect this is good entry point. I went out yesterday @~99.2 avg on data. I traded approx 100k shares. Like I said, can't win them all, but aim to win more than lose- will hold these unless loss gets past my S/L
$1960
Data point on Michigan view on inflation. Last time it goes up a little bit and they hammered gold. This time the data all goes the other way. Lets see what happens now.
Also I keep saying it doesn’t matter what you or I or anyone else thinks what is fair value or not - stocks with primary drivers like cey never work like this - work within the system - you’ll drive yourself nuts otherwise