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So in your opinion had it not been for inflation then the crack in the open pit wall and the huge CAPEX for the complete open pit recuperating and waste clearance would have had no or negligible effect on the share price ?
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, we shall just have to wait see next year.
In one week the pound has dropped 2.91% against USD. The company earns USD and is priced in sterling pounds. So 88p last week is now with 85.5p. Centamin is getting no benefit in being priced in a devaluating currency. Furthermore the pound is expected to decline further against USD. It can not go on like this it makes no sense. If the pound was equal to USD on parity would it go up 20% or continue to stay where it was and then reduced further in price for good measure.
There is no way this SP would be >£2 if it was not for the wall issue.
It would have suffered like the rest from inflation etc.
Were a crock of s--t
We now know what happened regarding the waste clearance and "high grading" in the past.
It seems that every time Centamin got tipped by a newspaper that it would briefly jump and then something would happen.
When the share price went up to over 220p it was because people were being told that production figures were still going up. Didn't the ex police chief who had a job there mention 680,000 ozs?
As I have often said, Sotolo was expecting the SP to go up to £3 from the 220p --------WHY? It was probably because Sotolo was believing the hype?
Maybe if Sotolo is reading they will comment on this?
You have to ask whether people would have being buying shares at the time if the wall was known about and that the claims of increased production figures we a crock of S--t?
I speak the facts as they were at that time, every mine goes through crisis from time to time with the same result.
Other miners along with CEY are in the same boat .
SP is no real indicator of anything other than the buyers and sellers,apart from the institutional holders and they have stayed put.
Mr Bond, why mot admit it you just like disagreeing for the sake of it , over bought indeed, come on you know as well as any long term holder this was over £2 and would have easily remained so were it not for the crack in the pit wall forcing the admission that the mine had been poorly managed and high grading without adequate waste clearance for far too long .
This resulted in a loss of market confidences and a huge increase on capital expenditure for am estimated 4 years, true some traders did exit because of this but then what's new ,traders always enter and exit what ever the company or share price.
I'm sure though that members would appreciate hearing your reasoning as top why the the massive reduction in waste clearance costs with increased operational flexibility and accessibility to higher grades along with reduced diesel and haulage costs wont result in a rise in profits and indeed the share price.
Thank you
Hi Paul,
I also hope we get a vary decent Q3 and if so then possibly a rise of 10p or so would hopefully be possible and a welcome change, but that's just table scraps, what's needed is a steady rise by 50p or more as the waste clearance costs normalise and Sukari is proven to be operating with with more flexibility to deliver sustainable decent guidance .
Inflation unexpectedly fell last month despite fears about rising petrol prices ahead of the Bank of England’s next decision on interest rates.
The consumer prices index (CPI) dropped to 6.7pc in August, down from 6.8pc in July, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The Bank’s own forecast previously predicted that CPI inflation would rise to 7.1pc.
The fall came even as motorists contended with rising fuel prices amid a global surge in the price of oil, driven by supply cuts in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had suggested earlier this month that inflation could increase given that prices went down in August last year but up this August.
Policymakers will decide whether to raise interest rates from 5.25pc on Thursday.
Major European stock indices showed a upward trend during premarket trading on Tuesday, as investors digested Eurostat's report on inflation in the area and the latest OECD report on GDP. Later in the day, shareholders will also anticipate US Fed Interest rate decision.
The German DAX gained 0.16% at 8:00 am CET and the UK's FTSE 100 rose by 0.09% at the same time. France's CAC 40 was 0.23% higher while the Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.24%.
The euro and the pound traded flat compared to the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06810 and 1.23875 respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Happy Hump Y’al
I think I will not invest in gold anymore. Stick with tech stocks
Gold is hard to make money. USA will never let the gold price jump over 2000 mark. Us and allies has to much to lose. Paper gold wins
Yes Tony ,beer and skittles if they could get away with it.
Time will tell all, lord help them.
Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/united-states-national-debt-tops-33-trillion-for-first-time.html#:~:text=The%20debt%2C%20which%20equals%20the%20amount%20of%20money,the%20debt%20topping%20%2433%20trillion%2C%20the%20department%20said.
Debt going up fast and a shut down planned for 30 September as highlighted when the downgrading of the USD was made.
Just imagine if all governments could run massive fiscal deficits and how good their GDP data based on debt growth would look. Next year it will be bread and circuses time probably for both USA and UK. I wonder what our currency will look like in September 2024. UK sterling lost the 124 handle today on USD. I suspect 120 cents for a pound by Christmas if we are lucky. Gold in pounds probably at a much higher price.
I hope you are wrong on that Mr T and that we get a decent Q3 and things start to pick up. Obviously there are other factors to consider Price of gold/Price of fuel etc
I think a big part of the problem is with what has gone on in the past, Martin Horgan cannot afford to have anything bad happen or he and Centamin will lose market confidence.
Crept out. Typo ;-)
The cat,crept into the crypt ,crapped then creped out ,comes to mind.
Mr T .
Down 60% from what?
The overbought ,inflated 2,20 plus pence ,rush into CEY ,which was good but probably not that realistic.
Then those same traders rushed back out.
Ce la vie.
Miners are VERY HIGH RISK investments!
They all are and each have their own issues, CEY is no different.
Waiting for a "silver bullet" to cure issues and raise SP is simply unrealistic, the long term institutional investors follow the presentations.
Everyone is welcome to their own opinion and those you refer to aren't why the share price is down 60%, as any long term holder realises, its the bottom line of increased CAPEX and the loss of market confidence that are the overriding reasons,
Possibly short term traders need to consider their options though because this is where we shall stay until next year so those who stay may as well get a comfy seat
Https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/How-will-oil-prices-influence-the-Fed-s-next-moves--44876944/
Not great, but key for short term traders, interpret the above as you wish as normal.
GLA.
SP's on UK exchanges over recent(ish) timeframes. To say the impact of usual influences of inflation etc is completely false. Bear in mind in the below I've not included dividends, which are significant for CEY.
CEY - a) 0% (flat) in 1 year b) -16% in 5years c) -60% since peak in 2020
FRES - a) -21% in 1 year b) -32% in 5years c) -57% since peak in 2020
HOCHS - a) +47% in 1 year b) -46% in 5years c) -71% since peak in 2020
SRB - a) 0% (flat) in 1 year b) -54% in 5years c) -76% since peak in 2020
SO
This share price is really gong to stay where it is until there is a sustained delivery of predicted guidance or better and the drain on profits by the waste clearance contract abates very considerably.
I appreciate that there is all the usual influences of inflation and market gold price manipulation but these are really negligible and would be more t than easily coped with were not for the huge drain of CAPEX just to make the Sukari site safer with more operational flexibility.
Once the management has proven to the market that it can be trusted and by delivering the predicted and sustained production rand it is rid of the parasitical cost of the waste clearance then the share price will respond accordingly.
And 10 days until dividend payment date…
Trading on a forward PE of 6.1 yahoo and other sources. The lowest i have seen in years.
144 institutions own Centamin shares comprising 76% of all Centamin stock.
Trading at 0.93 price to book ratio not far off all time lows.
Projected income to increase substantially in H2 with higher production.
Average gold price sold is probably $10 an ounce less but production ounces say 10,000 plus higher. Equates to -$1.1M on price + $4.7M earned on higher production. AISC anticipated to be similar to H1.
Share price trading 15% lower than H1 despite higher net earnings.
Sorry, in post below spellcheck clanged "concern" to "cony" foe some reason?