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Feel like this has been in auction for 30 mins + now? Last trade was 1:45 ish?
Great news this week......
Yup, Lady Homa Alliance bought 2.17 squillion shares last Thursday 12th Jan. And why not?
Great news, family buying again.
DISAPPOINTING - quantum of Allianz settlement
DISAPPOINTING - outcome and woolly narrative of Trading Update
DISAPPOINTING - if viewed as a barometer for progression, level of unsecured cash position which is effectively unchanged from 12 months ago and as at Interim Report stage
DISAPPOINTING - share price decline of past months and especially against Open Offer of 57p 12/20
DISAPPOINTING - the ever distancing prospect of Dividend restoration
And some sound contented!!
Whilst business looks unlikely to fall over in the short term needs some rocket boosters putting underneath it to try and unlock the apparent latent undervalue - maybe time for a Mr Ashley to enter stage left but against the shareholding strength of the controlling family difficult to see how in a meaningful way.
All in line and as normal, strong balance sheet. So can't complain. Get through this year and there is hope.
Just need to keep an eye on defaults on the credit side.
Considering the market backdrop I’m happy with this
With the decks cleared of litigation and from statement on monday suggesting 35 million uplift in cash then this must be a great chance to buy before tomorrow......must surely be worth more than this s.p.....
I was also disappointed by the size of the settlement, as I had been assuming something in the low 30s. So it seems had the market, given the muted response of the share price to the news. And I had not expected a settlement until closer to June, the scheduled date of the court hearing. This does smack of clearing the decks ahead of some form of corporate action sooner rather than later. Or it could mean that the recent trading performance gives the management confidence that they have the headroom to settle at this level, rather than go down to the wire. Either way, there is room for cautious optimism ahead of the upcoming trading update and further into 2023.
AO is also increasing its profit guidance for the year to March 2023, it has just announced via RNS. Hopefully Thursday's update from BWNG will be the catalyst that super charges the BWNG share price upwards. The BWNG share price is so under valued it's incredible.
Good luck, Brighty
I don't think it is unreasonable to assume they have generated significant cash around their peak trading period, particularly as we know that as of the last update inventory was already high (up 14% compared to the prior year) and they had plans to manage future intake, so I expect they will have traded that down to a more normal level generating cash and deferring or cancelling some future orders (again like 99% of retailers have done over the last year)
I think its difficult to look at it on a quarterly basis from an EBITDA basis and try to ascertain cash from that as a big part of it depends on the non cash provisions within the loan book.
I'm a bit disappointed by the size of the settlement, I thought that given N brown had counterclaimed there may have been at least some possibility of a smaller settlement as they must have thought they had a chance, but clearly not. A settlement twice the provision is a bit of a disaster, luckily n brown is in a much better cash position than a few years back or it could have been a lot more of an issue. I suppose it is good at least that the uncertainty has now gone, but I do think for some long term investors in particular they may just wonder what historic disaster will rear its head next, given PPI dragged on, now this settlement, all as a result of operations year ago.
Still, I think its difficult to argue that N Brown isn't very undervalued on almost every metric. Look forward to seeing their trading update next week, I think they set the bar very low with their last update which seemed to come out just before retail sales across the whole market started to improve (See BRC data, corroborated by Next's recent update).
If they cant hit the revised target of c. 9.4% down over the latest trading period and disappoint then I think I will be finally throwing in the towel and giving up on this.
o0owill it is clearly good management to maximise ones finance by using less productive cash balances, when not immediately needed, to keep other interest costs lower/improve margin by, temporarily or otherwise, reducing debt facilities but my point was about the comparable cash/resource availability from one reference date to another in a simple mathematical calculation to try and judge operational performance.
In the Interim Report RNS clearly states as at 27/08 had cash of 47.2m + Unutilised Sec Fac of 45.5 = Cash/Resource Availability of 92.7M over and above other designated unused facilities (100M). Today, state, as of 31/12, had Cash of £82.9M = disclosed Cash/Resource Availability of 82.9M over and above other designated unused facilities (112.5M). As have not,on this occasion, specifically stated what the status regarding the Sec Fac is, not unreasonable to assume now fully drawn or with little meaningful to spare, So, if I am correct, and all else has remained the same between 27/08 & 31/12, there has been a cash outflow of c10m (92.7M v 82.9M which, with the latter, includes what has now been fully drawn out of the Sec Fac, ) which further suggests in the last 4 months have not generated any cash from trading operations, indeed the reverse. If, however, still have 45.5M, or some worthwhile part, of available Sec Fac to draw and also have accumulated Cash of 82.9M, must have had a stonking/pretty reasonable last few months and generated anything up to 35M, way above previously forecast numbers. I would sincerely hope the latter is right but in the most recent environment ...!!!?
My thought is that the 82.9M includes a fully or largely drawn Sec Fac pulled together to pay the nigh on 50M to Allianz, otherwise would have had to draw on other unutilised facilities. Only c60 hours to find out.
Mike Ashley has been sniffing around this share.....I am not saying he will try a full takeover.....but......at this s.p. he could use proceeds from Hugo Boss sale to increase his holding......that would make sense .......especially before Thursday......the increase in cash reported gives a big clue.....I expect a busy 2 days before Thursday......
Your not disclosed for the securitisation was nil in the prior year. If you read the rns they used some of the cash to reduce the securitisation facility. This means lower interest and therefore should increase the fs margin. So your comparisons are net no movement in cash position.
Management have the option to move back to securitisation fully funding the book which would free up cash but slightly lower margin.
Whilst clears the deck I would have thought the quantum being settled disappointing implying principal culpability. As to cash position, yes, currently affordable but is it as strong as some think, when looking at comparisons :
27/8 31/12
NET CASH 47.2 82.9
UNUTIL'SD SEC FAC 45.5 Not Disclsd
UNDRAWN BANK 100.0 112.5
TOTAL 192.7 195.4
Were projecting Adj EBITDA of c£30M H2 suggesting should have generated add cash to end of year of at least £20M but if the previously unutilised Sec Fac, which has not been separately mentioned, is now fully wrapped into Net Cash have actually created little or nought last 4 months. Could be smoke and mirrors - ANSWER - 07.00 Thurs 12/01/23
Re Mike Ashley making a bid. I'm pretty sure that there were some calculations published a while back showing that the Alliance Family average was approx 118p a share in BWNG, following the £59.9million averaging down process at circa 57p. I can't see a 56% share holder (Alliance) going for a low ball offer from Mike Ashley & co of half what their investment was bought for? A bid would surely need to be at breakeven or higher to make it worth their while. i.e. 118p a share at least. Good luck, Brighty
I am expecting Mike Ashley to make a move soon....I see he sold out of Hugo Boss just days ago......Ammunition?
Customer debtor book covers the loan......Cash position impressive.....and getting stronger.....35 million in 3 months.....I cannot wait for update .....
FS not family service. Ducking autocorrect!
Because it’s not core debt. It’s solely linked to the debtors book so the interest is the cost of sale for the family service.
It’s the business model.
don't forget the £290m loan !! This is not included in an net cash position. IMHO net current assets would be a better figure to use and no mention of this.
83 million in cash......market cap 129 million......cash improved by 35 million in 3 months.......undervalued by a huge margin.........
From the interims in October the net cash position was £47 million as of today that was £82.9 million that's some difference. I think this will now get back to some where near it's fair value with the uncertainty removed .
Great news.....maybe the market will take a look at the incredible value here.....could be worth 3 times this price with a half decent trading update on the 12th....
Good news! Looking forward to trading update on 12th too...