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I had just been going thru the numbers when the latest RNS broke but make what you will of the following :
- Lady A progressively acquires 13.9M shares (3.02%)
- a seller disposes of 57.9M of which 46M ascribed to be remaining Schroders holding - the balance from whom!!?
- of Lady A's purchases 3 (1x 875K, 4.5M & 4M) could be matched to earliest of Schroders disposals
- Frasers acquire 58.15M shares @ c£17M
Q's/Observations remain :
- why would Schroders, on the face of it, drop, on my calcs, c£11M, that is a hell of an investment decision
- why would Schroders look to have changed horses i,e firstly offering shares to the A's and then Frasers - were the former not interested in that large amount/didn't want to finance when already" control" the show or did S, commercially, find a better offer
- everything, at the moment, appears to being transacted at not more than 30p
Needs a Chess Grand Master to work this one out or shall we call it a Clash of the Titans - and the winner is!!!?
I'm off out now, I imagine further dramatics could have unfolded by time I return.
Unhooked, the last chunk went to frasers yeah, but when they first started selling down last week it was alliance family buying - there were numerous RNS’s where schroders were reducing and lady alliance was adding the same amount of shares.
Few more rns’s this morning albeit delayed from Friday, for this to take off we need to see frasers or alliance battling it out to buy shares in the actual open market now schroders are out IMO.
Lady Alliance has upped her holding to 3.02% today. The Alliance and Fraser buying is relentless currently. Something is up. When we will hear? Takeover or defensive position by either? Good luck, Brighty
Those are fair points Paulof. I guess it depends how you define 'distressed' He doesn't always buy a company out of administration, he buys where he sees the value and , let's face it BWNG is cheap. Indeed sometimes Ashley doesn't bid at all - he holds a stake in a company for a while and then eventually just sells the stake. Re your comment about the Alliances scooping up Schroder shares, I thought it was established from the TR1s that the Schroder stake had gone to Frasers.
"N.Brown (BWNG) is sharply ahead this morning at 35p as the market wakes up to the fact that bid talks may well be on the way. The Alliances are loaded with stock and the Mashley feels like running the joint. It is simply a matter of price and it is hard to see why this should be less than 60p"
Frasers usually only low ball because they buy companies in distressed sales - that is far from the case here.
The alliance family didn’t sell when it hit near £5 a share when Asda were rumoured to be interested in taking the company over 8 or so years ago, struggle to see why they would sell it now at c.30p and also forgo all the tax benefits they have entitled themselves to with the move to AIM.
NAV here is well above the current share price as others have mentioned, but also the value to frasers in particular is more than that.
We know frasers big strategy this year is around financial services, they already bought studio retail last year to get the ball rolling on that. Now if they added n brown into the mix that could really accelerate their strategy, not to mention all the synergies they could get down the line.
I still think the most likely scenario here is that frasers have been waiting in the wings for lord alliance to pass away to table a bid, then schroders start to sell and to frasers surprise the alliance family start scooping these up. Then, to stop the possibility of the family taking it private themselves frasers start buying shares, defending against any possibility of them taking it private and getting them a seat at the table and first dibs essentially when the alliances eventually pass.
They are on speaking terms. Maybe Ashley has told Brough of his plans and on that basis Brough has sold out at a price somewhere in the low 30s.... that tells us something.
Andy Brough at Schroders has always been a fan of Mike Fraser.
One thing we know about the latter gent, is he will *not* overpay - quite the opposite in fact - so, if there is to be a credible Frasers takeover, one or other of the Alliance family will need to be prepared to accept a low-ball price. It's possible. Deffo can't see Ashley paying 70p.
With the BWNG NAV at over 70p a share and the BWNG EBITDA for 2023 forecast at £57.5m it goes without saying that Frasers would be getting an amazing deal if they managed to acquire BWNG for less than 70p a share. I can't see Alliance giving it away so cheaply? Interesting few days coming up....
Good luck, Brighty
Bought by Fraser group, there was enough shares in free float for Frasers to take 17% until Schroeder's sold. Also the timings are perfectly concurrent.
RNS just out: Schroders sold their remaining 9.98950% holding in BWNG on Friday 27th. Are these now owned by Frasers or Alliance? This is likely to dictate what happens next....
Good luck, Brighty
Helpful comments, all. But I had expected clarity today on the identity of the seller to Ashley, yet unless I am very much mistaken, this is still shrouded in mystery. I find this surprising, because the answer to this question should have a material effect on the share price, short term and long term. I am happy with today’s 14% increase in the share price, but would not add at these levels unless there was more transparency, or at least solid clues, about exactly what is going on.
Fridays holding rns. Frasers group bought 17% in January crossing the threshold on the 27th.
It will be interesting to see if they continue buying up to the point they have to make an offer.
Perhaps explains the recent directors buys here.
If they the Alliance family sell they will want a big price.
Interesting times.
Bwng in recovery mode now the Allianz settlement out of the way. Despite it being more than expected the company are left with a healthy net cash position of £30 million.
Most look at the debt and dont realise its all more than covered by the loan book. I saw a respected investor comment on debt on twitter with no clue about the financial arm of NBrown and the loan book.
I first bought in here at 23p a few years ago and it went up to 70. A repeat would be nice. The company is in better shape now.
Those are great posts Beechurst and Adamant. I'm also interested in the fact that BWNG is guiding FY23 EBITDA at £57.5m (as at 11 January 2023). You can see why a potential low ball offer is so attractive. However, you could also see the current posturing and buying as a way of the Alliance / Concert Party protecting their interests. A curve ball view could be that they infact might not want to sell? They have always been keen on the dividend afterall. Perhaps, the jigsaw pieces are about ensuring an iron like grip / hold over the business to provide a meaningful divi moving forward rather than buying BWNG, which would still be costly for the Alliance / Concert Party. It is also interesting to note that the share price is climbing and is up by 40% in the last month. Perhaps we are seeing a play to get the share price up and out of Frasers price range? The SP is currently at 35.25p, up another 10% so far today. At what point does this become too expensive for M Ashley or Alliance to bid......
Good luck, Brighty
Beechhurst, you must be smoking some pretty good stuff in your metaphorical pipe – good enough to convince me that you’re right to suggest that it’s implausible that Schroders are the seller. We have all the pieces of the jigsaw on the table in front of us, but they don’t fit together because we have been arranging them in the wrong way. You give some good reasons why David Alliance must be the seller and I would agree and surmise that, like a good chess player, he has sacrificed material – selling one third of his shares cheaply – in order to open up the game. Perhaps the offer price has already been settled between the main parties; or perhaps there is still much to win and lose. Either way, tomorrow looks interesting for all shareholders.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/28/frasers-group-boss-mike-ashley-plans-major-push-financial-services/
What could be better with BWNG having an existing platform for providing consumer credit and all the regulatory approvals. Synergy!!?
Another thoughtful piece, AdamAnt, which I read, metaphorically of course, in the comfort of enjoying "the smoking of my pipe" and, so it would seem, no worry of ending up with worthless shares contrary to all repeatedly thrown at us by our resident prophet, not!!
There remains much intrigue and mystery over yesterday's, if not also earlier, events, particularly as to the seller. Yes, there is plenty to suggest included Schroders remaining 46M to which would needed to have been added a further c2.6% from one or a combination of other non disclosable holders. If, however, it was truly a single transaction there can only have been one source!!!? Against it being S, can they really have thought, when things were clearly going to be hotting up, this was such a poor investment prepared to take a hit of c20p (reassessed ave pps @ c50p) = £11M+ (out of c£28M) - somebody might be looking for a new job if that is the correct scenario.
One also needs to accept the realisation that the seniormost members of the family won't be with us for ever and a day and if there is no realistic family succession (JA?) to take over the helm why not have some foresight and look to form fresh relationships/collaborations that could better maximise the family wealth with some new thinking - sooner or later the block of control has to be broken up if there is no family to carry on, so why not prepare for a more orderly dissipation. Like or loathe his business methods, Ashley hasn't made a bad job with the value of Sports Direct/Frasers Grp. so if he can bring a different approach to what seems to have become a sort of stagnating business why not. After all I did say in my Post headed DISAPPOINTING (12/01) after last set of results .".......... needs some rocket boosters putting underneath it to try and unlock the apparent latent undervalue - maybe time for a Mr Ashley to enter stage left ......." I am not suggesting somebody heard me but on the face of it there isn't going to be much positive happening here, as is, for the foreseeable future or that as it seems to be to me.
All the speculation may start to unfold as early as 07.00 on Monday morning - set your alarms!!
If it is indeed Schroders who are the seller (and we should know very soon), there must be some logical reason for them to do so. Barring some quid pro quo or other factors of which we are unaware, the only rationale for them to sell out at these relatively low levels is that they have calculated – rightly or wrongly - that a bid by Mike Ashley, even if it materializes, will not be successful; that Ashley would then cash in all or part of his chips; and that the share price would then consolidate at a level not very far from where it is now.
From what little I know of Ashley, he is a clever man who will want to emerge from this a winner whatever happens: Plan A, get the company on the cheap; Plan B, nice trade.
The Alliance family, if they act in concert, can block a bid. We cannot of course be sure that they would, in all circumstances, act in concert. But blood is thicker than water, so it is a reasonable assumption that they would stick together, regardless of any private differences (which undoubtedly exist).
My gut feeling is that the largest shareholder does not want, under almost any circumstances, to see the company fall into the hands of Ashley, and absolutely not on the cheap. Lord Alliance is a remarkably resourceful, intelligent and determined man, whose motto is “There is no such thing as ‘can’t be done’”. As long as he is in command of his faculties, he remains a formidable adversary. That tips the scales heavily in favour of the status quo, for the time being.
It’s probably unwise for me to opine when everything is in such a state of flux. Like everyone else I am intrigued and excited by the latest turn of events, but am trying to remain cool and analytical!
Fraser's clearly grabbing shares so he remains a major influence. Alliance family grabbing shares to try and stop him...
Schroeders wants non of it and copped a huge loss.. big money games.
Fraser’s (M Ashley) up to 17.88% tonight via an after hours RNS. Things are getting Interesting….
Good luck, Brighty
Landed. Looks like Mike Ashley has increased his stake.
Something doesn’t seem to quite add up with the Schroders holding amount. Various sources, including the N Brown website, have Schroders' total holding as of 11th Nov. as 15.18%, which amounts to just under 70m shares. According to the RNSs so far this year, Schroders have already sold ~9.4m shares. If the original 15.8% was correct, this would then leave Schroders with a holding amount very close to the amount of shares sold this morning.. maybe this is them getting out completely?
I had their average a little higher than 48p beechhurst, but even still i’m not sure why they would sell at such a loss.. surely holding on to them would force Alliance’s hand, not to mention the share price? I suppose we’ll find out soon enough!
When a stock is listed on AIM is a far cloudier affair...
Why isn't everyone rushing to buy if it's a get rich quick scheme??
Guess we will find out post close if they issue the RNS today