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Handy, although I do tend to agree certain points you raise there’s some I have to disagree with, I’m sure no one wants to strike, it’s not just BT it’s the country as a whole and when you look at profits against normal working people good and bad they’re no mistake where heading into a major crisis with the cost of living while people at the top get large payouts that’s the issue and people are struggling all over the place and its getting worse so putting the banter aside I’m sure you really wouldn’t want people loosing jobs or their homes etc , look, were all share holders otherwise we wouldn’t be on here, genuine people like most are on here apart from the idiots that think they can buy bt shares just to sell tomorrow and make a packet know long term we will all be winners but it might take a few years or so.
Deutsche Telecom Hikes Guidance for second time
Ummm who said you were striking clown? Stop banging your gums. Nurse Ratched will be around for your bed bath soon.
"OK that doesn't offer a formula but I don't believe one exists, a certain amount of logic, coupled with judgment has served me well. I have said elsewhere and maybe here that my strategy has been for many years now to aim for 10% over inflation per annum and have achieved that in all but 3 years of the last twenty odd."
"fibre rollout will weigh on profitability for some time and I suspect that until the shadow boxing between the other players is resolved by some sort of tie-up and the smoke clears the telecoms sector may tread water."
It's great if you can time when to jump in and out of stocks and achieve consistently good results, most can't and the ones who can are the exception rather than the rule. I'm currently sitting on paper losses on the three stocks I hold, BT, Lloyds, and Vodafone, but I'm on target to bring in dividends of around £21,000 over the next year; Including the Vodafone dividend, i'll receive £10,400 of the £21,000 before the end of September. My paper losses are due to being heavily invested over many years, but I have brought my average cost per share down significantly throughout Covid, and each of my holdings average cost per share are well below historic averages, so I'm not worried by my holdings current underperformance. I'm growing my holdings by reinvesting dividends while I perceive low prices, and I'm 100% sure my shares will show significant capital gains once the market decides to take it's foot off UK value stocks. Going forward, I've decided that I wont be injecting any more external capital into stocks, and will concentrate simultaneously running the share dealing accounts down, while topping up the ISA's.
As far as BT is concerned it's the stock I have most confidence in, not from a Revenue growth perspective, but from a Net Income perspective. Ofcom regulation has been responsible for much of BT's decline in revenue, through forced opening up of the Network; Companies like TalkTalk rely on regulation to support their whole business model, since their businesses wouldn't be viable without cost controlled access to BT Fibre and the Openreach workforce. BT's costs will come down dramatically over the next 8 years, so much so that they could easily undercut any of the current rivals and still maintain good margins, in my opinion. The market is short sighted in my opinion, and I don't think this risk on mentality will last forever. I believe the current market mentality is a bit surreal, when you consider the amount of cash thrown at useless cr@p like Crypto.
Phat, you might as well surrender now. The strike is over. Even fewer people will strike next time, if there is another callout that is. They will be thinking more about their bills and their families. How many more days' pay can they afford to lose. No more, I reckon. Here we see typical union greed in the face of a national crisis. I say down with the fat, bald, aggressive union barons. They have no place in modern society.
Grs24 Please go easy on Jake and Elwood , it looks like they are building up to the moment when they finally come out of the closet.
Lets just concentrate on continuing strike action and giving the likes of Jake and Elwood a heart attack
Come on you cap doffers , grow a pair and get behind the CWU strikers
Jake the bird brain, what makes you think I was striking ? you’ve made your self sound as bad as that other buffoon lol. I presume you can read and know people are going to really struggle this winter and it’s no laughing matter but hey ho you’ll probably die a Lonely little man thinking you’ll be the richest bloke in the grave yard lol
It won't be a laugh when you realise how much lost wages is costing you and the bank manager comes calling. All while the Union hierarchy and supping their drink ,living the high life, still getting paid and taking the pi55 out of you. Not sure who is the more intelligent
Fleccy - just got back to my hotel and spotted your post of 18.13 last night.The question of fair value for BT is impossible to answer as it consists of the interplay of a myriad of often conflicting elements, BUT I'll have a go.
BT appears in my folio now and again as part of the defensive, divi earning element which includes other shares such as LGEN,NG,IMPS,MNG, PSN.....all of which I currently hold and have held off and on for years (As I have said I am a buy and hold man but that means to sell when they are over my value estimate and buy when they fall back in , as at some point they all do)
While I have no hard and fast rules, I judge them on divi, P/E , recent earnings momentum, recent SP momentum, my perception of the market generally and any obvious threats/Opportunities they may have.
OK that doesn't offer a formula but I don't believe one exists, a certain amount of logic, coupled with judgment has served me well. I have said elsewhere and maybe here that my strategy has been for many years now to aim for 10% over inflation per annum and have achieved that in all but 3 years of the last twenty odd.
To get back to BT I will watch and wait, for me the short -term momentum is downward, the Drahi thing gave the stock an impetus which seems to have dissipated, fibre rollout will weigh on profitability for some time and I suspect that until the shadow boxing between the other players is resolved by some sort of tie-up and the smoke clears the telecoms sector may tread water. If you want me to pick a number for the SP I really can't. It would clearly be below my sell average which was I the high 180's and below today's SP , would 140 tempt me back? possibly, depending on all the other criteria set out above, below that it would be back towards the territory of my last buys and would definitely appeal. If / when I buy back in I will declare so and may still offer my input here on occasion between now and then. If I miss a rise and you profit then you have my very best wishes!!
Now it's late afternoon in Dubai, the temp is 40+ and the cool, shady air-conditioned bar downstairs is calling me (despite the extortionate prices!!)
You keyboard warrior capitalists seem awfully wound up at the moment
You need to relax , come join us on the picket line next strike day . Its a good laugh actually
No it’s simply that BT was privatised and is in effect a cash cow saving the Government paying the fat pensions of pensioners stuffing their faces all for ever costing more bleeding away profit living forever
The reason we are striking Gassy is to annoy easily triggered fools like your self
Up the workers comrade
Latest union update
The Communication Workers Union
15 mins ·
AN IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO ALL BT AND OPENREACH MEMBERS - PLEASE SHARE.
Let’s keep the pressure up!
It is one week since our BT and Openreach members took strike action in such huge numbers across the UK.
Have no doubt this support has hit the company hard. Our door remains open for negotiations but it is important we do not lose momentum and pressure.
On this basis, we want to push a number of initiatives this week:
1. We need every member as well as your friends and families to write to your local MP. We have had some excellent replies and this is shining the spotlight on the company. Use this simple form to join the thousands of members who have already helped our political campaigning. Use this link: https://www.cwu.org/.../write-to.../bt-openreach-support
2. We are setting up a meeting with major shareholders of BT Group to present our case for the pay rise you’ve earned and deserve.
3. We are drafting a major national newspaper advert which will be published prior to any further strike action.
If BT Group do not respond positively, we will, announce further action- expect further communications from us, by the end of this week.
Your continued support is creating the pressure to win this dispute – please keep this up!
Andy Kerr Deputy General Secretary (T&FS)
Dave Ward General Secretary
Can anyone throw light on current status/future
Just repeating the words on the RNS. Where there were sales on the other people the words “principally for tax purposes” followed the info on the sale. For those two there were no such qualifying words to explain the sale.
"Handy ,you are right all except Allera and Mehta were for tax."
Are you sure about that? If they were awards of free shares, then they're probably subject to income tax and national insurance. It's possible they received accounting advice to cash in the shares, but I don't know since I've no idea on the type of awards they were given, or the conditions attached to the awards.
"As with most of my sales, I will keep a watching eye and may re-invest if/when I think the SP falls below my estimate of fair value."
That's fair enough. What do you consider as fair value for BT, and how do you calculate said value? Also reading between the lines, I assume you believe BT may drop from here?
Somehow the market managed to knock 30p off the share price, using a combination of speculative headlines involving VMO2 and the results on the 28th July, as excuses to knock the price down. It isn't the first time speculative articles have appeared leading to BT's share price dipping inexplicably, and excessively, lower. Coinidentally, or not, the TalkTalk/VMO2 story knocked 14.55p off the closing price on the 15th July, compared to the previous days closing price; When BT's results came out on the 28th July, which I thought were ok, 14.25p was knocked off the closing price compared to the previous day. This leads me on to the reason I think BT wont go any lower, when BT went ex-dividend the price dipped to below 155p, but has since recovered to near the Pre ex-dividend and post results price, which makes me think the market's decided on around 161p/162p for BT's current price.
I'm of the opinion that big players use Off Book trading to do their major trades, and drive prices On Exchange using Algo's. Considering the daily closing price drop after the TalkTalk story and after the results release were within 0.3p of each other, it does make you wonder if the same Algo's were used on each occasion to drive the price down. It was probably coincidental that the drops were within 0.3p of each other, but that's pretty close and you could be forgiven for being suspicious, especially since many of these stories appear out of the blue, like the Sky/VMO2 rumours that fizzled out. I'll add that I don't believe the TalkTalk story either, but if there is a glimmer of truth to it, I don't see it impacting BT/Openreach in the short term, and probably not in the long term either.
Handy ,you are right all except Allera and Mehta were for tax.
Fleccy I am not a short term trader , I've been a succesful investor for 30 years and my general strategy is to buy and hold good companies with good prospects. That said, every investment decision implies that there are no better choices elsewhere. I bought Into BT in early 2020 (having held for a number of periods in the past) when the price, then a little over £1, seemed far too low for a company unlikely to go bust and with an income stream less likely than most to suffer from the impact of covid lockdowns and all that followed. My analysis was borne out by the steady recovery, which IMV has now stalled . As with most of my sales, I will keep a watching eye and may re-invest if/when I think the SP falls below my estimate of fair value.
I have read and learned a good deal from your posts for which I thank you, your knowledge of the company is impressive and certainly greater than mine, BUT I do note in your posts the tendency to assume that anyone with an alternative opinion to you either doesn't understand the company or has an ulterior motive. I can assure you that does not reflect my view, My judgements, I hope, are entirely based on the best deployment of my resources and for now that is not here. I wish you and all who remain invested here good fortune, I can only repeat that I think there are, at the moment, better places for my cash.
Seems to me that most of the selling of shares by directors is to cover tax due. Am I wrong?
2-3 yrs at least before BT becomes more positive and popular share (IMHO) Unless a certain large investor /s takes the company a different route. Just reinvest and cross your fingers till then.
Sale of shares by directors isn't so bad as they have living costs too and their s are going up as well as everyone else's. I'm sure the school fees will have jumped and the cost of crewing the yacht not to mention the rent on the flat in London. Cash is king in a dodgy market.
"I do not currently hold as I see better opportunities elsewhere and am left wondering whether the costs of Fibre rollout will hold the SP back for some time?"
From what you've said I assume you're a short term trader, rather than a long term investor? From a long term investor point of view, wouldn't a depressed share price be a good thing if you believe in the long term outlook?
The way I view BT isn't as a growth stock per se, but as a company with huge potential to grow the bottom line through cost cutting initiatives, in the meantime I can grow my future capital gain by reinvesting dividends while the price is low.
I believe the perceived threat of competition from Altnets and VMO2 is overblown, with Altnets having a 1990's Deja Vu cable company feel about them. By 2030 BT will have a more efficient network, with less buidings and much lower operating costs. The Openreach workforce is saleable based solely on their operating profits, add in BT's Fibre, mobile, core network assets, etc and BT is clearly undervalued.
As a display of confidence in the medium/long-term SP, the immediate sale by eight directors of "free" shares as a result of the investment plan (see both of yesterday's RNS's) does not look good. The rules covering when directors can sell do limit opportunities to those times when they are NOT in possession of "inside info" but clearly at all times, they have a pretty good idea of how the company's medium-term prospects look.
Expect a gentle negative reaction to the SP over the coming days.
I do not currently hold as I see better opportunities elsewhere and am left wondering whether the costs of Fibre rollout will hold the SP back for some time?