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AimMaster2018 - I first began buying BT early 2023, sold entire holding for profit summer 2023... began buying again in Autum/winter 2023 and I've kept buying up more this Spring. Max price I've paid for any of the tranches is £1.30. But that's the most info I'm willing to share... as I previously said I have been trading since Dec 2022 and yep, so far I've not yet made a loss but I'm very grounded and know that is just a matter of time... biggest gains I've netted have been from trading TUI, Currys & BT. Plus a number of other gains too. For everyone else on here AimMaster2018 is bitter because I was considering investing in Capita (CPI) but...I've been frank in my language on the CPI chat board that after examining the financials, the macro economics and risk v potential reward - I see far better value in BT stock right now... and that is where I've kept on putting my money. I think BT is going to be shorted heavily in immediate future, although I am in for the mid-long term. DYOR.
Want to see an example of ramping gone wild, try the bitcoin forum on Reddit.
OK i think I've found the answer to my quest
Ramping
The practice of trying to boost the price of a share and the company behind it by buying the securities in the market with the object of raising demand. If the price rises, the ramper may be able to make a quick profit by selling. This behaviour amounts to market abuse and is illegal.
Well said Abject , can we now have a debate on "ramping" please . For a start what the hell does it mean , is it some kind of sexual act , mandy used to use the word. So i figured it was a bad thing.
Not interested in what savage says or has said. Can we just move on and talk about something more enlightening
Savage stated the following
27 Mar 2024 12:36
Afternoon Mandy, sadly I've no £60k to place trades, if only!... I am but a tiny spec/amoeba, smaller even than a wee minnow in this vast ocean of traders...
I place infinitesimally small stakes (£0.5-£1.5k tranches) where I spot there may some gains to be had, by placing long trades (well mid-term really), using my salary income, in a desperate attempt to bolster my savings pot towards our house deposit (my wife also trades too)!
So far though we've been consistently beating bond/savings accounts by a considerable margin with ~7-20% returns from our positions (with just a couple of losses thus far). I began trading in late Dec 22
Key point is' with just a couple of losses thus far'
But in the past week, he said 'AimMaster2018 - Good Q... I actually haven't yet made a loss (trading since Dec 2022)'
Could you clarify please imho
"once Labour take the reins credibility will return, BT will be a keystone for unlocking economic growth."
Sorry SKR but I find that statement astonishing and unbelievable.
At least the Tories have the excuse of a very nasty war in Ukraine and a global pandemic for the economy being a mess. Agreed its a mess. But Brown could not balance the books in good times. Selling half our gold at its cheapest price for decades. Destroying company pension schemes, mine included. letting council tax run riot. Giving pensioners a 89p a week rise, remember that? leaving the country near bankrupt. ( He had a good teacher though. Denis Healey did the same in the 70`s I think) Labour being credible, unlocking economic growth? I think not. Not a Jack Polance.
I will not vote Tory or Labour this time. If Starmer and Sunak are the best we can do then we are in trouble.
..2022 is unverifiable and could be a lie along with all other lies on other boards imho
It seems talking the talk is easy lol. If one makes few trades and makes profit. You'll know exactly when u bought, sold and what profit was made from memory. For someone to believe it will hit 1.60 from when the price was just under 1.30. At no point would u have sold when the belief was there that it would hit 1.60. To say you've sold means u were ramping and didn't believe in what was ur target sell price that u were telling everyone it would reach. SP today is at 1.05. U failed on what u believed was 1.60 target price in short order. U failed to highlight and verify claim you sold when ur time history states otherwise. Then to go from sp target from 1.60 to now below £1 Indicates your claims of not making a loss since 20
I'll check the exact dates on Tues AM on HL account... what with enjoying the BH weekend I had not appreciated it'd attract such forensic analysis. My overall point remains and whilst I was off with timing of my £1.60-65 sp forecast for BT I nonetheless believe it'll prove very resilient through these turbulent times ahead.
Savage :
AimMaster2018 - Good Q... I actually haven't yet made a loss (trading since Dec 2022) but... I absolutely do expect to book losses and I'm not taking anything for granted. My wife has booked a loss on Synthomer though, quite a sizeable one but not outweighing her other profit making stocks which saw her through.
How can someone who says BT shares won't be sub 1.30 for long and will bounce to 160-65 but share price has been on downtrend. If sub 1.30 was good enough purchase price for him. If he had sold. It would have been at a loss because he would have held for his 1.60 which never happened. So how can he claim he sold at a profit lol. Imho
@IDoMyBest Savage claimed on a different board that he's never made a loss. This guy sounds like he lives in a cuckoo land imho
Seems strange that you would post this the day after Boxing Day, if You had already sold all of your holding.....
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27th Dec
"Correct, you have to be holding the shares at close of business today to be eligible for the interim dividend payment 🎅 - lots of reasons for positive moves on BT SP these coming months ahead!"
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20th Dec
"SOM - You'll want to top up before SP rises up to £1.60-65p ;-) - the bull run is on the way!"
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I'm puzzled, is it really that hard to admit it.
Please, do save me the time and point me in the direction of where you posted that you had sold and taken a profit. I can't seem to find it. ;-)
I purchased last year yep, sold the whole stake for profit... waited... bought back in again this year 👍 - only a small stake though and I plan on buying more on these upcoming dips.
The assumption being that it recovers. What if it stays where it is and later there is a cash bid @ 150p
I have seen so many times that those holding shares that have fallen hard, state that by holding they will eventually recover. None seem to realise that a cash bid would force them to sell.
All that said, it is rather unlikely here.
Would be nice though, currently holding at an avg. of circa 106p. I'm leaning more toward a break up, carving off the retail arm EE. I am assuming that merging the two may be a precursor to this.
Missed posting a link to one of the charts in the previous link.
This is the chart comparing the value of the stock in each universe.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=1399088825&format=interactive
I expected a response from Toff to my post in the sub £1 thread. I think compounded growth through dividend reinvestment is a subject worthy of its own thread. As I said in the previous thread dividends aren't guaranteed, but neither is continual price outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks.
I'll repost the previous chart showing the compounding effect of reinvesting 7% returns over an 11 year period, with an initial investment of £100,000. After 11 years the £100,000 will have grown to £210,485.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=257670331&format=interactive
The next example involve two different Fleccy's in parallel universes.
Fleccy1 and Fleccy2 both invest £100,000 in BT stock, at £2 a share, purchasing 50,000 shares each; In Fleccy2's universe the share price immediately halves a week after he buy's the stock, but in Fleccy1's universe the price remains at £2 a share. The dividend remains at 7.7p a share in both universes and both Fleccy's reinvest their yearly dividends back into BT stock. After 19 years of dividend reinvestment the value of Fleccy2's portfolio catches up up with Fleccy1's, with each owning approximately £204,000 of stock, but after year 19 Fleccy2's reinvestment pulls way ahead of Fleccy1's due to more dividends buying more stock at a cheaper price. After 30 years Fleccy2's stock is worth £498,000, whereas Fleccy1's stock is only worth £322,000.
The reason Fleccy2 outperforms Fleccy1 over 30 years of reinvestment, is due to each Fleccy2's year on year reinvestment buying increasingly more stock than Fleccy1's. After 30 years of reinvestment, Fleccy2 will own around 498,000 shares with a dividend of £38,000, whereas Fleccy1 will own around 161,000 shares with a dividend of £12,000
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=933652602&format=interactive
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=305726335&format=interactive
Obviously this is a made up example, aimed at demonstrating the power of dividend reinvestment when a stock drops in price. If both Fleccy's retired after 30 years of reinvesting dividends, and decided to take income instead, Fleccy2 would be far better off even though he initially suffered a paper loss due to the drop in price of his initial investment.
Savage.....bought this year?
Come on, you can admit you bought well before, and well before current levels. The posting history doesn't lie.
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15 Dec 2023 - 125p
Get your buys in while you still can for sub £1.30p as SP will not be staying down at these low prices for that much longer!
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8 Nov 2023 - 121p
Since it's fallen down to the current levels I've restarted my process of buying again but... this time I plan on buying many more tranches and holding them for far longer.
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19 October 2023 - 116p
I think you're absolutely correct on long term hold however, this is about to move sharply upwards imo for several reasons... Incoming revenues are inevitably swelling and making it easy to service debts. BT is seen as a safe equity, a healthy and stable divi return, plus it's deeply embedded culturally as well as its infrastructure. These past years big investors have chased bigger returns in start ups/crypto etc... I think a trend of buying up safe and stable assets is about to begin, as large funds seek to re-evaluate exposure and shield themselves from risks.
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;-)
" I'd suggest the shorters are currently betting on the class action result "
Fleccy
I suspect some are merely betting around the FEAR regarding the result, rather than the result itself...
Closer to the time they may change position to more match what they really think...
So far BT has not put aside any provision, as far as I remember, which gives some indication of their strength of position
Also, BT has not sort any kind of out of court settlement deal , with the notion that they accepted they knowingly did anything wrong,
I think that from BT legal team, they have gone into it feeling they have a good case to argue
Pokerchips, are those all. savages prediction? Lol.
"Yes pokerchips, seems my 165p prediction was incorrect/premature"
"I think we'll be seeing 114p+ shortly."
" IMO We will see sub £1 this week."
Savage
Well , whatever crystal ball you are using ...I think you need to get a refund... it keeps sending you very different messages
For transparency; I'm a holder of small qty of BT stock, purchased this year...
IMO We will see sub £1 this week... Shockingly bad house price data will kick off a VERY bad week for UK stocks. Plus Tory party digging in through backdrop of dreadful UK macros is going to amplify the carnage. BoE is stuck; raise, to tame inflation, and weak economy will implode like a squeezed rice crispie... hold is only sensible option but... gives no support to business & consumer demand and no relief to the indebted, cut and comparitive dollar strength will see inflation return to UK economy with a punishing vengeance. Longer term BT is a top value stock, once Labour take the reins credibility will return, BT will be a keystone for unlocking economic growth. We're a long way off from that though and the turbulence from now the then is going to be epic.
That's why he is the Motley Fool. He had the same opinion on Rolls Royce Shares and look how they have gone from strength to strength.
It all depends on your strategy. BT is currently yielding over 7% and if the price stays this low for a sustained period of time, the compounding effect from reinvesting that 7% plus yield can be likened to a form of growth.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=257670331&format=interactive
Lets say BT stayed around the current price for 10 years with an initial investment of £100,000, you then reinvest your 7% yield back into BT every year, after 11 years of reinvestment you'll have more than doubled your initial investment and should BT's share price increase after year 11 you could benefit from that too.
The silver lining is that should BT's price drop further, and as long as the dividends are maintained, the yield will increase and your yearly reinvestment will buy even more stock.
Compounding is a well understood concept, but the decade long unprecedented low interest rate environment, and unbelievable outperformance of US stocks, appears to have hypnotised many into only considering growth type stocks. Should you be lucky enough to pick a stock that climbs stratospherically, like Rolls Royce has recently, then I'd suggest you've done well and your stock pick has worked in your favour; I'd rather pick reasonably safe stocks with good dividend yields and realise growth through reinvestment and compounding.
The caveat to the above is that dividends aren't guaranteed, but the outperformance of "Growth" over "Value" stocks isn't guaranteed either.
Fleecy
“It's a pointless exercise guessing the short term direction of a stock,”
But anyone who guessed Vodafone & BT were going to remain in the doldrums long term and become textbook bears in a bull market would have been correct. I think I’m right in saying both stocks are lower now with the ftse at 8200 than when the index fell below 5000 when covid hit home.
Telecoms have been an appalling investment over the past few years. Even a tracker would have outperformed them by about 30 percent, and that requires no active participation. The worse thing about backing losers is you not only lose money from your losses, you also lose money from backing the stocks which have risen.
Which is just about everything apart from telecoms.