The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
What do posters see as the reduction in the BP share price when the inevitable windfall tax is announced? The tax is coming whatever anyone says & a lot of people holders & not will advocate that the company can afford it.
Please don’t post that “I’ll never vote Tory again” What is the alternative, anti-business Labour or “Tax em high, wishy washy liberal”.
Me, I see the SP settling around £3.65, talk of a £5 share is a distant dream until the cost of living issue has resolved itself.
Surely priced in already? Or a bit like the loss of the Russian assets, share price falls then goes back up again.
How much is the tax going to affect BP individually? 1 or 2 billion at worst? Easily affordable and the shares are still under valued if oil price remains at its current level.
If it’s inevitable Gary then surely it’s priced in?
Did you buy in again after you sold at £3.90?
Whenever potentially damaging (or beneficial) announcements are made, I check what time it came into the public domain. I think this one came out before 4.30 pm?
Pete, I hope it’s priced in for the sake of holders & no I haven’t brought back in yet. Keenly watching here & at Shel though but I’m going to stick to my previous limits of percentage of portfolio this time round. I realised a lovely profit with BP when I sold a few weeks back but as my old school reports said, Could have done better. GL All.
Personally don’t see it knocking 14% off the share price. How much it falls will depend on the scale of the cash grab. Is it going to be levied only on North Sea profits? If so it’s a drop in the ocean and I don’t suspect the SP would drop more than 3% before quickly recovering.
Good opportunity for BP to sweep up some more shares if the markets stumbles.
Lets see how the week ends
The big question now is how much.
If they are looking for 10 billion in total as has been suggested I would expect at least £1 billion from BP .
If they can sweep up windfalls from the various companies which posters on here have identified as having had a windfall that might lower the BP bill.
Think it has to be clearly identified as a one off.
I do like the part that suggests you can invest to maybe have a lower windfall bill.
Suspect in part it is priced in as has been a topic for a while.
I would say that just now it is very easily affordable to BP and feel that the quicker it becomes fact the better.
Then BP can just forget about it and get on with running the business without this distraction.
Would like it to be based on end of financial year as that gives BP more time to spend cash on debt reduction before it becomes real.
I do feel that the market is no longer punishing BP and is slowly accepting that we are generating really big amounts of cash
I am sure that any Government can make massive annual savings as follows:
Cut the total number of MP's by 25%
Cut the House of Lords by 25%
Cut certain civil service departments by 25% and flog off the resultant empty offices.
This would save billions of £ per annum
Cherryburn
Totally agree except. Cut house of Lords by 75%
Would rosneft loss somehow affect the profit total that could be grabbed?
Proceeds of chelsea football clubs 4bln is not going to Putins money launderer abramnovich, maybe this should go towards the fuel poverty that the Russion dictator has caused..
nick,
There's only this country's government's, past and present you can blame for fuel and heating costs in this country.
Decisions made decades ago have put this country where it is.
News update , chelsea 4bn + proceeds sale now going to ukraine . I wonder how Roman is now feeling toward his puppet master now he has lost him his footbal club PMSL..
Abramovich said the sale proceeds would go to Ukraine when it was all first mooted.
He also is not (not that he'd be able to anyway) going after the club for the more than £1.5 Bn debt it has accumulated to him during his tenure.
Must be nice to be able to write off £1.5 Bn, just like that.
some people will blame the Ukraine invasion on everything
They can't be reasoned with
Skwizz,
Abramovich did NOT say that it should go to the Ukraine alone. He said that it should go to those affected adversely by the war/special operation, which could mean, of course, Russia. He was careful not to pick sides.
So if a windfall tax is announced tomorrow what's peoples opinions up/down 1%/2%/3% etc
Time for bp to half there investment in renewables in the uk. Increase investment in US and mexico. Then move Hq there too. This country is finished for investment
My view anything less than £1 billion already priced in.
I’m hopeful for nearer £0.5 billion or less .
Think could possibly be a knee jerk reaction to take sp a bit lower, but over a couple of days buybacks will help to regain upward momentum.
You could even get a relief rally just to finally put it behind us.
Just my humble opinion ( and I have been wrong often before)
Claim the 25 billion rosneft loss back from govermment aswell. Goverment that is still buying russian gas and letting them keep 100% of the profit when 20% belonged to us. Joke
I’m not sure I would pick US to move HQ to as they have already had their cash out of BP.
Think I would register in Switzerland, they seem to look after companies better
Even Ireland. Corp tax is only about 12%. They would welcome bp an sure. And apreciate the jobs they create.
In Q1 BP announced Operating cashflow $8,210m vs Q4 2021 $6,116m. Therefore increase of $2.09bn divide by 1.25 = £1.67bn.
In Q1 BP announced Surplus Cashflow $4,089m vs Q4 2021 $2,998m. Therefore, an increase of $1.096bn = £877m.
Imo. A drop then share buybacks so that within two weeks back to 430p.
The extra profits would take 1 to 2 yrs to offset the 25 billion write off though. Now they want to take the extra profits away. Realistically will take yrs now to offset the write off.
Therefore i cannot see bo hitting 5 quid a share any year soon