Member Info for Enso

Dividend is for shareholders registered on the 14th April

Also worth noting that they intend to keep dividend coverage at 2x but have started with 3x cover (a prudent move imo). So plenty of room for that dividend to grow over the next couple of years as earning recover (and grow), further.

Stock markets are forward looking, it really isn’t difficult to see why the share price could hit 390p. With consensus EPS of 39p by 2024 that would be 10x earnings which LGEN consistently toys with.

International investors don’t seem to have been dissuaded from purchasing BP shares however.

I do agree though, Slater that BP hasn’t been a great long term investment for those of you who bought in before covid. It doesn’t mean this is where it’s future lies though. It’s already a very different company than it was pre-covid with lower debt (mostly fixed at a low rate for decades and with the cash to clear any unfavourable debt as they have done recently), a real chance of moving net cash over the next few years (if the board should choose to follow that path), decreasing share capital and a dividend that is now more than supported by earnings and increasing back towards the pre-covid level (I personally think in the medium term we will exceed it).

Personally, I’m adding on any weakness.

As always, DYOR

I wouldn’t be surprised if that has been part of the boards strategy since the buybacks were conceived. I would be worried if the shifting geographic layout of the share capital wasn’t discussed to be honest.

Totally agree, Happy! If labour ever regain power it’d be time to sell up and emigrate. Catastrophic for working people who want to get on in life.

Nightpusher - I guess she would argue that there is no windfall tax currently, instead an energy profits levy which gains heavy relief from reinvestment. I agree, no change to current policy.

I can’t find further information on the distribution of outstanding shares but I last noted that it was approx. 40% UK, 40% US, 20% other markets (namely Frankfurt stock exchange).

It’s worthy of note that as we clear shares from the UK stock exchanges we become even more driven by US sentiment.

So much emotion from this board, waxing and waning with every small move.

“£4.50 and I’m selling this dog”
Hit’s £4.50 “I feel it has more to run”

Those denouncing £7 aren’t carrying out any form of fundamental analysis. Simply pulling numbers from the sky…

BP is not the same company and the past doesn’t guide the future. I totally agree with happy, given the fundamentals I can’t see any reason for BP not surpassing £7 at some point in the future. The fundamentals add up, growing earnings, reducing net debt and reducing share capital.

The majority of the earnings growth isn’t planned to be achieved from the switch to renewables which accounts for $2-3b EBITDA by 2030.

It looks to me like much of the earnings growth comes from convenience and mobility. Remember we bought Thorntons in the US and opened our first Jio BP station in Mumbai last year (inc Wild Bean café). These businesses offer an opportunity to tap into high margin sales outside of fossil fuels and will contribute up to $10b towards earnings (alongside EV charging), by 2030.

Things seem to be running nicely. Past performance isn’t a guide to the future and all that…

BP won’t come out of this decade the same way it entered it.

Massively reduced debt (possibly net cash), massively reduced share capital, a growing dividend (quite possibly above the pre-covid dividend), and growing earnings out to 2030.

Personally I don’t think it will be valued as before in the long run.

Very little to do with oil prices (they aren’t that high historically).

However, here is a breakdown of the global Refining Marker Margin;

4Q21 $15.3/bbl
1Q22 $19.3/bbl
2Q22 $45.5/bbl (note it peaked over $60/bbl)

Quite obvious why the price of fuel was 30p more than it was in February. The problem was always in the products market and was driven by refining.

This was so obvious from the beginning and yet it took the Biden administration until June this year to acknowledge this! Unbelievable…

RMM 3Q (to date) $34.8/bbl although it has now dipped below $30/bbl, hence a small drop in price on the forecourts. Severe historic lack of investment (and capacity), in the upstream sector is likely to keep refining marker margins elevated (it wasn’t so long along the guidance was based on RMM of only $13/bbl)!

You could argue the same point when looking towards China however business goes on there too.

IMO sometimes you need to look forwards and I am sure the world will do just that if a peace deal is brokered. Punishing the people of Russia further will only antagonise them and cause further instability.

People tend to revert back to form pretty quickly too and my guess would be that businesses will flood back into the region once the war is over.

I agree with your sentiment though.

Mutterings of peace talks beginning between Russia & Ukraine. I sincerely hope that it comes true and a peace deal is reached to end the war and the suffering it has caused.

Business in Russia will become acceptable again and perhaps we’ll find a buyer (or pick up where we left off), for our stranded Russian assets.

I agree

BP.com-Investors-Results & Presentation-'first quarter 2022 results'-key downloads and then choose the 1Q22 Group Datebook

It has tabs for all business sectors including data for the past couple of years. A bit difficult to find (I don't find the BP website particularly intuitive), but has a wealth of information!

As at 1Q22:

Installed renewable capacity (net): 1.9GW
Developed renewables to FID (net): 4.4GW
Renewables Pipeline (net): 24.9GW

Renewable pipeline by technology:
Offshore wind (net): 5.2GW
Solar (net): 19.7GW

Renewables pipeline by geographical area:
America: 16.3GW
Asia Pacific: 1.4GW
Europe: 7GW
Other: 0.2GW

I generally agree, Spights and would obviously like to see the credit rating back to where it was pre-covid. However if debt is long term fixed debt at a low rate, is there any reason to pay it off? Better to conduct buybacks in my opinion and save cash on dividends.

There’s certainly a balance to be had between it all.

Incoherent garbage! What a plonker

Q2 earnings will look like full year!

You need to account for the cost of refining the oil. You don't simply get it out of the ground and stick it in your car, natural gas is used in the process for example and the Henry Hub in Q2 to date is $6.30/mmbtu vs $4.96 in Q1.

The global RMM realised to date in Q2 is 39.1 vs 19.3 in Q1, once you realise this it isn't difficult to see why the price at the pump remains elevated.

Also why our Q2 results are going to be so much stronger than Q1, which were already great!