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Interesting you're done with it Gingy! if bp has taught me anything over the last 2-3 years is it trades like a Yo-Yo on sentiment alone. There's an easy 10% + Divi to be made here if you buy c: 450-475 - OPEC has set its stall out and bp's business keeps generating cash. Bit boring, but reliable.
Investrat, I've come to the conclusion that its not in their interest to see the share price rising due to the buyback process. In other words they are stuffing two fingers at the ordinary investors. To answer your question I think we would've seen a considerable increment.
Buyback strategy off to it’s usual influence on SP already this morning ;)
What would have happened had they announced even a minor raise in dividend instead ?
Good morning all, still looking in from time to time. Not looking good here. I think BP has had it's day as far as the big return from oil. Personally I'm glad I got out. Good luck all .
Still feeling all rose tinted and positive you guys that posted yesterday about conference call? Market doesn't agree with you not did I yesterday. Blinkered by stagnation
Wow BP run for its Board and Staff... Not interested in shareholder returns
Jezzoo
Only hope I can give you is the start of the buybacks might help.
Been none for almost a week.
Not a good start
I read a lots of complains re buy back and all, next time consider the following : the consequence of buying buck your own shares implies trust in the value of the company from those within and more importantly reduce share count allowing for future increases in dividend pay outs. So to those who want higher divi like myself the correct way to get there is through reducing the number of shares , increasing in eps and at the end increase in the divi, so be patient, as ashareholders ci also have omplains about the mgt however in this case they are doing something right. Investing in quality cash generating companies is all about patience . as the German proverb goes geduld uberwindet alles
Many Thanks Happy
Hi Busman
Here's the Seeking Alpha version of the Q&A transcript. I can't find the official version yet on BP'sv website. Please see Kate's answer to Michele Della Vigna (Goldman Sachs).
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4690194-bp-p-l-c-bp-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript
Michele Della Vigna
Thank you very much and congratulations on the focus on cost efficiency despite the relatively positive macroenvironment. Two questions, if I may. On the dividend per share, it looks like we are up for an announcement next quarter. And I was wondering, how should we think about the underlying growth. We've got 3% to 4% absolute growth of the business and we've got a share retirement that is running at between 6% and 7%. Is it too simplistic to think about growth of the business plus share retirement equal what can be achieved in terms of sustainable DPS growth?
And then secondly, on the net interest expense, it's quite a difficult line to forecast. It's been around $900 million for the last three quarters. Is it fair to assume we remain at about that run rate in the coming quarters or is there anything else we need to take into consideration? Thank you.
Murray Auchincloss
Kate, you want to handle the dividend?
Kate Thomson
Sure. So, Michele, I think you may have done my arithmetic for me. I guess a couple of points to just to add to that. So if you think about the financial frame, remember to anchor on our balance points and also the fact that we are -- our first priority is that resilient dividend and at $60, the capacity to increase by 4% per annum. But as you rightly point out, we've had previous increases in 2Q '22, 4Q '22, 2Q '23, each around 10%, underpinned by strong performance and by reduced share count.
So as you'd imagine, the Board will look into many factors when we come to that conversation in 2Q, but as you consider what we've done with our share count, I think we're 17% reduced by the end of '23 and since 2Q '23 at the moment, we are about 5.5% reduced share count. So I'll let you add that to your current arithmetic.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Hi, Can someone please clarify what Kate said regarding Substantial increase in divi next Qtr Please.
BP is $37.66.
6 BP shares to 1 ADR.
Therefore at exchange rate of $1.25, it's trading at £5.03 or thereabouts, which is the same price as today's UK close.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
BP not doing well in the US tonight, a further drop tomorrow on the cards here I think.
I expect the next 24 months will be delivery of high expectations and rewards for shareholders.
Mark you write very well informed and insightful posts but i believe you are going to be very disappointed.
Just a view of of a 75 year old former OIM in the oil business(contracting) who has held BP for more than 15 years and has pre Macondo contract notes where my purchases exceeded £6.
Todays performance was dire and it is a relief that I started accumulating Shell when I felt BP were underperforming so that I always have a ready made barometer for on the spot comparison.
Why I am I still here,well I keep dropping my sell price,was £6,Then 5.70 then around 5.50,now I would take £5.25 and move the funds into BHP.
Will be interested to see if the slide today was halted by company buybacks,I sincerely hope not.That would be sheer desperation
BP’s ambitious share buyback plan is entirely logical because it offers excellent value for money. The company’s shares trade at just seven times forecast earnings, which grossly undervalues their long-term prospects.
With a possible dividend increase beyond the 4% hinted at, its cake and eat it time. With BP it always seems like jam tomorrow ( clever eh ) but I expect the next 24 months will be delivery of high expectations and rewards for shareholders.
Share save share match is for everyone, well. Apart from non majority joint ventures
One interesting figure from CFO was on buybacks. From 2021 to end '23 the buybacks were over 20% of total company shares excluding 2024 buybacks. This together with a planned minimum of $14 Billion of buybacks by end '25 is an enormous saving in dividends.
This is beneficial to board members, and excludes employee share schemes but this will be increase the value of my shares over the long run more than paying out dividends . I want a capital growth over the long term and I have calculated that should buybacks continue for ten years at the same rate, my shares will be worth around $110 BILLION as the only shares left. !!
WP
I agree but the relative underperformance was due to the results announcement not due to the call itself. That's all I was saying.
The market is still unsure about the tilt to green and what impact it is having on performance and focus. These are legitimate concerns which I share but the underlying business performance remains strong and the value is being underappreciated.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Not oil price related, shell up 1.3% today, bp down 1.9% A 3% swing. Market didnt like the earnings miss and future downward pressure will compound for bp as oil demand looks like it is weakening from the highs of 90
Sold out after update earlier as unimpressed. Share buybacks are known as 'financial engineering' since they can improve EPS without increasing cash but EPS often affects directors remuneration - looks good on paper. Overall uninspiring which is a pity since we have so few large cap stocks on lse cf US.