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Also just to add no conspiracy about casino style trading it’s a known fact. Tiger hedge fund for one ubs trader back the financial crisis etc. If you look at the data for amount of retail investors who are using instruments of over leveraged products then you’ll see for a fact there’s casino style trading going on in the markets.
Respect your opinion stockready but, I have to disagree about patience. I’m extremely patient but I’m not going to hold for two years because I need the money for other endeavours this year. If you read my postings I was a Lloyds holder for over 3 years now and only recently offloaded because I see no more value in there won’t go into the details. Your view is very long in that you’re using metrics of here and now to justify a move to 500p in two years but two years is very long my friend anything can happen in between valuations change with time. Had I listened to your view last week I would have bought at 330s and been down almost 5% now. Like I said in a previous posting today’s person who’s right will be tomorrow’s person who’s wrong. Don’t worry about my reasons for selling they don’t affect you or the share if you’ve got conviction on 500p then good luck I do hope it goes there.
Mojo
My mate
Sorry to see you are leaving, got to do what is right for you , and I respect that!
Let me put my view, there is no casino style conspiracy going on here and absolutely everything is relys on fundamentals and of course will be affected my general market moves but fundamentals ALWAYS hold and pays back sooner or later. Remember this was under 200 not long time ago, forgotten that?!
The issue is you are not patient enough and perhaps expecting to scope a casino style bagging loads of cash suddenly, it would happen over night here and look at the history those who got frustrated and left always lose most and when they look back they could have hold longer and be more patient. Not suggesting you should stay as you know best
So no Manupulations or casino gang involve here is just a market, sentiment, economy, covid etc together with fundamentals affecting the price move
What happen yesterday may even be repeated again but this is part of readjustment and natural flow of the FTSE/Market and BP. will follow the same but much more resistance to winds than other shares.
I don't want to be out of this share SPECIALLY THIS YEAR as all the signals for BP is positive and the rewards will come.
This is exactly the big frustration period just before the real rewards. Pass July uncertainty we will head toward 400 mark IMHO
Oil will hit near $90 pb this year
Even below that price BP generate cash like a cash machine
Wish you best of luck mate
SR
IMHO
DYOR
Cheers Mojo.
Been sifting through and the effect on the FTSE cis visible, if not on the day then in the days leading up to witching.
Volatility can certainly be true about Aim and now the FTSE. The casino is here and IMO not sure how the effects can get tamed, just more and more volatile.
Larger cap company's SP often change by more than their annual yield in a day. For example RDS yesterday was down almost 5% at one point.
I've always thought fundamentals ultimately will win through, so I leave well alone the madness I see going on in Crypto / share issues / shares with paid ramping etc etc.
Cheers and GL.
Going to be gardening all day.
Lol another addition of what I forgot to say is volatility will become even more the norm now reason why I’m leaving. The problem is aim style investing i.e the casino market has found its way to the ftse and other larger indexes which I don’t like. Like most who complain here fundamentals have really gone out the window and can’t be relied on. Hence why I don’t like this new type of investing style hopefully with sports back to some normality a lot of these retail investors will go back to sports betting but, I fear it’s changed forever returns on crypto and other type of stocks have deluded a lot into thinking these returns are normal. I miss the good days when a 5-10% annual return was seen as solid returns.
Yup that’s the gist really you’ve summed it up. The Robin Hood crew plus traders who don’t trade with real money I.e CFD positions or spread bets can make the situation worse because of stop losses etc. A lot of the time you can read that situation from the forum mood and other sources. I generally try not to get caught up in euphoria or over pessimism it can hinder your logic. Let’s look at last week a lot of people thought I’d miss out on higher prices etc and I have to admit my finger almost hit the buy trigger but held my nerve. It’s all about going with your own research once you’ve done it and you’re confident on it stick with it and only adjust it when factual events affect it really. There aren’t many more ftse opportunities better than bp and shell at the moment the rest were well overdue a correction so they can move up. My target price is around 340p I plan to be out once the q2 results hit not cause I don’t see this higher but because I’m leaving the trading game and investment game soon (I’ll be back when the next crisis hits).
Thanks mojo.
I'm reading up on it now, then research some examples.
So in a nut shell, yesterday's drop was the regular quad witching, which sparked a profit taking correction and became exaggerated, in part due to the masses, the Robin Hood crew, and also investors like myself, the many attracted to profiteering from the pandemic dip via stocks commodities etc.
From your answer, the implications are that the market will recover quickly, and whatever the overall trend was will resume.
In that respect, it's simply another time to batten down and do something else, but if there is the time to trade, then it's an opportunity.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp
Dates here: http://www.forex-central.net/options-expiration-calendar.php
Also like to mention the severity of quad also depends on market conditions I.e has the market been on an overly bullish run and are things over bought this is something I mention a few days before the drop on poo and bp that they were two points away from breaching the rsi (again this was scoffed at). This all made for a perfect storm scenario. What’s helpful is if you find indicators that work for you I have mine but won’t be sharing them for my own reasons namely I don’t want others to start using it lol.
Sorry forgot to say what I said about 3rd week incorrect it’s 3rd Friday of every month because a week of any month could start on a Saturday apologies was an early morning reply needed time to gather myself.
No problem tbh people haven’t taken notice of it including myself until March the reason it’s so exacerbated is because so many retail investors have access to tools they shouldn’t use. Anyway my understanding of it is this. 3rd week of every month on Friday options expire this is known as triple witching. It has a slight impact on all shares however every quarter i.e March June sept and December you have a phenomenon where 4 options contract types expire on the 3rd week of that Friday. Most professional traders and hedge funds take advantage however the advice is to not trade the volatility. My understanding is most of them will sell off well before quad happens I.e a week in advance and buy back the week after quad has taken place. There’s a lot more to it though than what I explained you’ll need to do some research on it etc. Anyway I don’t like to rub salt into peoples wounds we’re all human and make mistakes the difference is to learn from them there’s always someone who has a bit more knowledge/experience than the next person good luck.
Hi Mojo.
You were absolutely spot on about Quad Witching. I think you mentioned it two weeks ago.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-poised-to-skid-lower-to-end-fed-week-mark-5th-straight-drop-11624017361
https://forextv.com/market-news/market-snapshot-dow-sinks-about-500-points-on-quad-witching-friday-as-investors-focus-on-bullards-hawkish-comments/
The market got proper clobbered yesterday and I held through with the notion that there was no great reason for the market to go down greatly, even with a profit taking correction. Wrong. BP & RDSB among loads of others are down 2% to 4%.
Quad witching is something I have vaguely heard about, saw it mentioned and never really paid any attention to it until now, unfortunately in hindsight. From now on I will !
All this witching is in my look up and reading list this week.
When is the next and how often are Quad Witching days ?
Does the market usually recover quickly from a Witching bashing ?
Are there others like Triple Witching days to be aware that can be just as brutal ?
Darktrace is a LTH for me. Looks like the opportunity to go further.
You still waiting for your £3.09 well done if u get it .Nice wee drop for the divi reinvestment and might do a top up, few pennies either way does not make a difference .Darktrace up at present do I sell and put it all back in BP decisions decisions.
Sorry meant equities but you get the gist.
Combo of things quad definitely impacts but people chose to ignore the over heating rsi on all oil commodities as well as Brent and oil. There are other factors at play too but a bit long to go into them.
Could quad witching explain this non fundamental drop in the SP. I understand the basics of QD but question if this could be so influential on the SP. Happy for the drop as I intend on topping up today.
Ditto ??
Possibly I’ll assess how tonight’s sell off goes and decide if I’ll wait later tomorrow or next week Monday. 316 atm adr
Just in time for the dividend payment, it’s almost like it’s planned this way!
Thanks Mojo
You may get that BP re-entry level you are looking for
Generally affects the entire market the sell off likely to continue into tomorrow after a little early morning "dip" bounce. I wouldn't buy at the moment till possibly early Monday the sell off looks like it's beginning.
Do you sense this having a negative affect on BP . Could this be causing todays lacklustre performance?
Almost upon us looks like the first to go are the miners they are having a terrible time. glad i waited on the glencore buy.