Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Uncertainty-Drives-Investors-to-Oil-Stocks.html
Traders flocked to the crude oil options market last week, trading record numbers of call options that Brent would hit $100 per barrel in the coming months, data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Monday.
As tensions in the Middle East escalated earlier this month, traders moved to the options market, betting on higher oil prices as a hedge against spiking futures prices. The call options give traders the right—but not the obligation—to buy assets at a certain price, the so-called strike price, by a certain date.
Days before the Iranian attack against Israel over the weekend, traders traded last week more than 1 million call options on Brent crude, focused on the $95 and $100 strikes, Bloomberg’s data showed.
In Brent Crude, call options at $100 and $110 per barrel have been the most popular options held by traders over the next 12 months, per data from ICE Futures Europe compiled by Bloomberg.
The front-month futures Brent contract fell below $90 per barrel on Monday, despite Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel that the latter said had only done limited damage.
Risks have risen in the Middle East over the past weeks, and despite the muted oil price response to this weekend’s attack with drones from Iran toward Israel, call options are likely to be heavily traded in the coming days and weeks, analysts say.
The bullish call options have been trading at high premiums over the bearish put options in the options market in recent weeks—another sign that the market seems bullish on oil and may have already priced in some escalation in the Middle East.
Short of actual disruptions to oil supply, Goldman Sachs analysts have brushed off the latest events between Iran and Israel as a bullish factor for oil prices, citing potential hedging by producers.
“Any rise in oil prices on higher geopolitical risks may be dampened by oil producers deciding to hedge their price risks and sell forward their production,” the bank said as quoted by FXStreet.
Harmonica
I understand that.
And up till now that has been a benefit every time the sp,dropped again below £5.
However if someone does look at taking over BP a low sp, and less shares makes it much easier to do.
I think the landscape has changed, and it’s now time to defend £5
Meoryou,
Whoever is running the buybacks probably wants the share price to fall! Why. To be abke to buy more shares for cancellation cheaply!
The last thing that they want to do is to defend £5!
WeirdPal,
Had the UK bombed a diplomatic building abroad, retaliation would be expected, so it might then be left at that.
Agreed it’s a very low bar to hold him to.
But it’s just a start.
Too many times £5 has been normal for only a few weeks or months.
I believe the fundamentals support higher.
If we get a take over sp will be way higher.
If Murray is to defend against a take sp has to be a lot higher.
£5 for now.
As Cong said yesterday £7.77 sound good
It’s just when we get there.
When high £5 becomes normal again I will want £6.
At these oil prices it should not be so hard to defend sp.
Perhaps I should have said for now £5 has to be seen as a measure of success.
With respect to Murray, holding him to £5 feels like a low bar. Look back at the historical share price, at the legacy Bob left him (despite the damage Bernard caused), the great 'reset' that saw 10,000 experienced people leave the business and the comparative valuations of peers. Though, maybe you are right, wokery does drive a discount.
In previous rounds of buybacks recently they have paused buybacks at times.
I would like to see them dropping volume of buybacks daily by about 25%.
Just to have some extra volume to use if we need to defend the £5.
Think £5 has now to be a measure of our new CEOs success going forward.
As long as he can keep sp above he looks like a success.
( obviously £6 would be even better,but little steps first)
Morning WeirdPal
Just posted and saw your post. Daniel Haynes had said the same in a much more polished way.
Morning all
Oil down this morning, as I suspected it would be, the oil premium has benn sold on facts. The iranian ' retaliation' was designed to look like a hard response while in truth it was a choreographed farce. Iran informed the Americans hours before the attack commenced. The drones took fro. 4 to 6 hours to reach Israel, hardly a lightening, stealth strike and after Iran firework show they immediately released a statement saying they there campaign against Israel is now over - as long as Isreal does not retaliate. Puffing out of Iranian chests over. Iran has much more destructive weaponry but decided against using them.
In summary, Iran does not want a war with Isreal. Isreal does not want a war with Iran. The Americans do not work Isreal to retaliate. Iran wants the US to stop Israel retaliating. Israel wants the US to allow a Rafar operation for restraint on Iran.
Away from this temporary side show, fundementals are all that matters in the medium to long term, as meoryou rightly mentions.
Looks like it was very much baked in which is why it rose 2-3% on Fridya:
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https://www.ft.com/content/3bbeb6b5-b9b6-4474-a858-cc8a23c448ba
Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said the calibrated nature of the attacks and the fact that they were well telegraphed had eased oil market concerns.
“We had a build-up in the oil price before the weekend and so a geopolitical price premium was already built in prior to this event,” he said.
Hopefully Israel doesnt react, although If a country launched 300 drones/missiles at the UK I'm not sure we'd show the same restraint... for now the situation seems calmer which is a win for the most important thing - humanity.
Would appear for now that the risk premium on oil due to the Middle Easr has been dropped.
Hopefully wiser heads prevail .
Bid premium looks like it’s also gone currently for BP despite some press over the weekend.
Several commentators seem to think BP may now be in play.
For now we can just focus on the fundamentals ( which are not too bad).
Only important thing
Hold £5 at any cost
Https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/14/markets/asian-markets-gold-oil-iran-attack-israel-intl-hnk
Good Morning !! Worrying times, but US Index Futures Up c 0.20%
Ironic that the Big Mideast dustup occurred over the weekend when oil trading is down.
I'd say the powers didn't want the Oil price to spike...
SPR still needs to be filled and there is an election approaching here in the US.
Aquisitions that should be lol
That's quite a leap from current, but consistent with their previous call. Been a lot of talk about accusations "on the cheap". Seen smds getting American interest following the initial takeover approach by Mondi. Any luck the Americans start sniffing about BP also and price reacts accordingly.
So, changing topic to BP.
If Shell does leave FTSE, that would propel even further.
I’m presuming that is what BARC are basing their SPT on Bp at 1000p to be
Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth maintains his Buy rating on the stock. The target price remains unchanged at GBX 1000p
Harmonica, I expect the Oil price to be up tomorrow.
Sky News said the drones were attacking Israel around 1:30 -2:00 am Israel time so around 11:30pm UK time. They were well on their 9 hour way when you posted at 21:39 13th Apr. If Sky News are correct, and their times are not the most accurate I find, then the drones left Iran at c. 14:30 UK time to arrive near Israel c. 23:30 UK time.
Hey Mark, all good thanks, and hope the same for you.
Now that would be nice, I'm going to get in there early and give my Xmas 25 price hope of 777 then!
Hi Cong
I hope all's well with you. It is always a pleasure to see posts from you.
With the caveat that nothing is certain with the energy sector. I would certainly hope that BP share price starts with a 7 by year end 25.
Hey Mark, what you hoping for by end of 2025?
Hopefully Israel won't go full out and have restraint, if the kid dies though that may decide things. Let's hope nothing happens and tbh I'd rather oil just stay at 90 for now
..... a year or so. I hope by the end of 2025
Have a great Sunday all.
Mark