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Clued
My purely personal view is there will still be some value attached to BPs stake.
I assume politicians and media,will crusade against BP ,but the amount of money there is bigger than some not very small countries have,so think BP will come out one day with something..
Unless the west put Putin into a position of retaliation if west take Russian assets in the west.
It’s a big game of poker, with unfortunately many lives at stake
Mark, I realise you've headed away for the day, but per your "BP's reserves currently lack depth due to Rosneft ' exit ' at 8.7 years at present but Rosneft is a write-down not write-off. Rosneft dividends for BP are still being paid and held on account. Wars come and go. Companies are more perpetual. I expect BP's near $24B stake - excluding dividends $6B - to return in value sometime in the next few years."
do others think these Rosneft dividends and investment will populate BP's A/C's again, as that would really add to its value ecen in a few years time ?
Mark ,meoryou and others thankyou
for your informative posts.
meoryou it’s freezing here.brrrrrr:)
Webcast details
bp's first quarter 2024 results will be released at 7am BST/2am EDT on Tuesday 7 May.
Murray Auchincloss, chief executive officer and Kate Thomson, chief financial officer will host a question and answer session from 1pm BST/8am EDT to 2pm BST/9am EDT (approx).
Date
Tuesday 7 May
Time
1 – 2pm BST / 8 – 9am EDT (approx.)
Hi WeirdPal
I fully respect your decision to sell. On this board there are a number of contributors who's opinion and analysis I totally respect and take on board and you are definitely one of them.
Out for the rest of the day now.
Have a great day.
Mark
Buenos dìas meoryou
Espero que estés bien
I hope you are having a marvellous time in Spain and wish you well for the rest of holiday.
I could not agree more with your last post. These are very interesting times to be a BP shareholder. In regard to those selling recently, the saying goes that ' taking a profit is never wrong ' and depending on individual circumstances that may be the case but if you are to reinvest your funds elsewhere I honestly can not see a better sector to be invested in going forward and out of that sector the possible rewards of being a BP shareholder, for all the reasons my previous post outlined and more ( Auchincloss confident of $9-$10B pa from growth engine sectors ) makes me confident to hold.
Anyway enough of me for now.
Adiós amigo.
Even though I sold all of my position on Friday - I agree with MarkGo - fundamentals here remain strong and I wouldnt be worried if I was a shareholder. If OPEC maintains cuts this year will be another strong one, combined with more tempered language from Murray the bp investment proposition could turn on its head
It's me again.
Last hog of the board today I promise.
On a down day, I want to finish today with some positives.
Peak season is just six weeks away Oil fundementals and price remain strong @ $90ish. So along with many other oilers, BP is refilling the cash tank.
BP has shifted its energy transition strategy to a more "pragmatic" approach with a renewed focus on Oil & Gas and shareholder distributions up from 60% to 80% of surplus cash to shareholders.
With this surplus cash payout raised to 80%, I see BP offering up to 12% total yield in dividend and buybacks for 2024 and an 11% annualized yield through to 2028 with its peers offering 9%.
BP's reserves currently lack depth due to Rosneft ' exit ' at 8.7 years at present but Rosneft is a write-down not write-off. Rosneft dividends for BP are still being paid and held on account. Wars come and go. Companies are more perpetual. I expect BP's near $24B stake - excluding dividends $6B - to return in value sometime in the next few years.
BP remains at a 45% discount to its peers.
Possibility, if not probability, of acquisition or merger.
So, all in all, I see BP offering me one of best current investment opportunities based on risk/reward profile in the industry,
Good luck all.
Mark
Morning Mark
All fine here in Spain, a little to warm so enjoying the shade.
Was having a little think.
Last week or two several on here sold, which is a decision based for each individual on a lot of variables,entry price ,need for cash etc.
However even at a reasonable sp by recent history,there were plenty of buyers to take the other side of the trade.( obviously part of that is due to the buybacks)
There are more headlines now than for a while about investing in energy.
I would suspect the message you would get if asking for advice on diversifying your shares would currently be are you in energy.
That’s a different message from the last 3 years.
Even saw someone say energy was the new hedge against inflation or recession,as people still need oil.
Interesting times.
Ps hope you also are well
Morning meoryou, I hope all's well with you.
Darkresh - with respect- It is totally acceptable and you are fully entitled to disagree with my opinion. You seem to miss the point in your post. Yes, the Opec+ cartel are currently cutting production- mainly KSA to support the price of oil - during this short term period of various headwinds as I explained in my previous post.
Oil demand is at record highs and will continue to grow. Regardless of recent weeks inventory builds, global oil inventories have barely built from the beginning of the year - a period when usually demand is low and builds are high -and in the coming months as we move into peak season global inventories will reach record lows, Summer driving season is nearing, US shale growth is slowing, and Opec are fully in control and will manage the situation in the short tetm aware of possibilities such as releases from the strategic reserve. They will wind down the cuts into growing demand and once this has been achieved attention will be on maximum global capacity which is surprising Limited..
While the world will never run out of oil, extraction, production and supply will become more challenging. With Africa and Asia going through their own industrial revolution peak oil demand will be decades away whereas supply is another story. A lack of exploration over the past decade means there will be a lag between recent years exploration and actual increased supply. That lack of previous exploration will fuel the price of oil over the next few years or at least that is what I'm betting on that oil will recover from the short term to be higher for longer. An average of brent $90 to $100 until year end 2025 should push BP beyond my price target.
In regard to debt, I agree with meoryou's analysis.
Have a good day.
Mark
Darkesh
My take was that net debt only increased due to expenses being front end loaded in the fiscal year.
Ie mainly a build in working capital which will at least partly unwind during the year.
I think they are very sure of their cash flow as they increased the distribution of excess capital to 80% from 60%.
As far as oil price is concerned a price above $100 is bad in the long run as it encourages more replacement by renewables .
I’m sure if I got it wrong someone will tell me
The Opec countries are suppressing their oil production and ultimately they will control the price. They have also stated their target is below $100. So I totally disagree with your take on the situation. BP have also stated they have increased their Net debt, which in an environment of decent oil prices is not good.
Morning all
As interesting as the current geopolitical theatre is at the moment and the short term focus on the implications for the price of oil and therefore oil companies, the geoeopolitical risks should not distract everyone from what's happening for the next few years to come which will see a global oil structural supply deficit.
Oil market fundamentals this year have been healthy, but we are entering a short-term lull due to global refinery maintenance in April coupled with stretched financial positioning means that the headwinds are building for oil prices. I expect to see inventory builds continuing over the next few weeks coupled with the weakness in refining margins that will pull back oil in the short term.
However, this short term pull back should not distract from what is to come later this year. I think as oil pulls back in the near term, opportunistic investors and traders will continue to bet on higher oil prices going year end and 2025 being aware of the deficit data.
The structural supply deficit has been commented on by a number of CEOs of various oil companies. When this prediction becomes fact and materialises I expect oil equities including BP will be much higher than today. I would not be surprised to see the share price fall in the short term before building into year end and 2025. Without unforeseeable events, I would be disappointed not to see BP's share price starting with a 7 by year end 2025.
Have a wonderful day all.
Mark
Bp Ventures did a lot of really weird stuff, from blockchain to EV taxis (yes, really). It was like watching kids in a sweet shop, everyone wanted to be part of the cool crowd who got to work 12hr days in WeWork offices (remember them?). Those of us working in hot and dangerous locations actually looking for and producing oil & gas a. never got it, and b. lost our jobs.
“ Another ‘growth engine runs out of fuel . How much money have they wasted on non-commercial Businesses.”
A swing and a miss Exploration, they said in the last investor call Germany and China is already cash flow positive.
News
The FTSE-250 engineering services company John Wood Group is facing fresh calls to launch a strategic review almost a year after the collapse of a £1.7bn takeover bid.
Sky News has learnt that Sparta Capital Management has written to Wood chairman Roy Franklin to urge him to explore a US listing or a sale of the company after seeing its shares slump by more than a third during the last 12 months.
I
Israel still sabre rattling so oil is back up. looking at going past 90 bucks again
Another ‘growth engine runs out of fuel . How much money have they wasted on non-commercial Businesses. First wind farms, now EV charging. BP Ventures must go next. BP has cut over a tenth of the workforce in its electric vehicle charging business and pulled it out of several markets after a bet on rapid growth in commercial EV fleets didn’t pay off, company sources said.
The changes at BP Pulse are part of CEO Murray Auchincloss’s efforts to focus on the British company’s most profitable segments as it battles investor doubts over its plan to shift away from oil and gas to low-carbon energy.
BP Pulse reduced the number of countries it operates in from 12 to four in recent months, focusing now on the United States, Britain, Germany and China, where it expects the fastest growth in the EV market, BP told Reuters.
As a result, the division axed over 100 jobs in recent months, or over 10% of its global workforce of 900, with many employees being moved into other divisions and only a handful leaving the company, the sources said.
BP did not comment on the exact numbers of jobs that were cut.
The move comes as automakers across the world tighten their belts amid a slower than expected uptake of EVs. Tech publication Electrek reported on Monday that U.S. EV pioneer Tesla
would lay off more than 10% of its workforce.
EV charging, however, remains one of BP’s key growth engines.
BP had over 29,000 charging points globally at the end of 2023, compared with 22,000 a year earlier, it said in its annual report. It aims to have 100,000 points by 2030.
“Our EV ambitions have not changed,” BP said. The changes at BP Pulse are “a step towards ensuring that we can execute our goals with even greater precision and effectiveness”.
BP Pulse has also stepped away from several bets it made since launching its energy transition strategy under previous group CEO Bernard Looney in 2020.
BP initially expected commercial car fleets would be first and fastest to switch to EVs at scale, but that did not pan out, in part because governments eased mandates for switching to EV vehicles, Auchincloss told analysts in February.
“We thought fleets would move first. But given recessionary pressures and some relief from governments, fleets have slowed down,” Auchincloss said.
BP last May also shut down its home EV charging business. The company now focuses mostly on fast charging hubs.
The company says it expects returns from its EV charging and convenience stores operations to exceed 15% and create $1.5 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by 2025.
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Uncertainty-Drives-Investors-to-Oil-Stocks.html
Traders flocked to the crude oil options market last week, trading record numbers of call options that Brent would hit $100 per barrel in the coming months, data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Monday.
As tensions in the Middle East escalated earlier this month, traders moved to the options market, betting on higher oil prices as a hedge against spiking futures prices. The call options give traders the right—but not the obligation—to buy assets at a certain price, the so-called strike price, by a certain date.
Days before the Iranian attack against Israel over the weekend, traders traded last week more than 1 million call options on Brent crude, focused on the $95 and $100 strikes, Bloomberg’s data showed.
In Brent Crude, call options at $100 and $110 per barrel have been the most popular options held by traders over the next 12 months, per data from ICE Futures Europe compiled by Bloomberg.
The front-month futures Brent contract fell below $90 per barrel on Monday, despite Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel that the latter said had only done limited damage.
Risks have risen in the Middle East over the past weeks, and despite the muted oil price response to this weekend’s attack with drones from Iran toward Israel, call options are likely to be heavily traded in the coming days and weeks, analysts say.
The bullish call options have been trading at high premiums over the bearish put options in the options market in recent weeks—another sign that the market seems bullish on oil and may have already priced in some escalation in the Middle East.
Short of actual disruptions to oil supply, Goldman Sachs analysts have brushed off the latest events between Iran and Israel as a bullish factor for oil prices, citing potential hedging by producers.
“Any rise in oil prices on higher geopolitical risks may be dampened by oil producers deciding to hedge their price risks and sell forward their production,” the bank said as quoted by FXStreet.
Harmonica
I understand that.
And up till now that has been a benefit every time the sp,dropped again below £5.
However if someone does look at taking over BP a low sp, and less shares makes it much easier to do.
I think the landscape has changed, and it’s now time to defend £5
Meoryou,
Whoever is running the buybacks probably wants the share price to fall! Why. To be abke to buy more shares for cancellation cheaply!
The last thing that they want to do is to defend £5!
WeirdPal,
Had the UK bombed a diplomatic building abroad, retaliation would be expected, so it might then be left at that.