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Your spot on pruss imo, there may not be a more knowledgeable board here on LSE and the case for VRFBs is compelling. Even with that though people have to get into BMN as a long term hold, they may turn into a battery company but until they do they're just a miner (that in itself isn't a terrible outcome and I'd expect them to be profitable and paying divis in a couple of years if VRFBs were forgotten about).
Ultimately there are no guarantees the battery side takes off; but the news in that space is picking up led of course by Invinity.
For me and I'm sure many others getting a nice slice of the Eskom tender would be a great start. I doubt we see 6 bags by year end too but I'd like to think clearing the recent 24p ish highs is an easy jump in that scenario. Risk reward here for me at 15p is the best of all my holdings imo. Blue sky predictions are huge and even a pessimistic assumption should see strong profits in the years to come.
Yep, take all the comments in response to my initial post on the chin, there is some great experience, logic and researched views here..... however in a quick response a) i am not a hinsight investor, i bough into BMN wwith eyes open based on the potential of V sales and VRFB developments with a 3-5 year horizon b) regards "jam tomorrow" actually been the core of investing as we hope for better results and share price tomorrow, fully agree, however my point remains that BMN hasnt delivered any jam tomorrow in a long time, not unless you bought in on a recent dip (even then there no meat on the bone, yet!) or you have held since donkeys years ago, I see some are stunned that the price has fallen to 15p from 48p and want back in, but that proves my point, its been a downward trend generally when other V producers have delivered returns against the positive vanadium price rise. Again lots of yes it will come good, which I hope for us all is correct, but I dont support the 100p share price by end of year, a 6 and a half fold increase.... come on guys!! I am flumoxed as to all the great positives I read every day regards current projects, vanadium price rise, shortage of material, II's wantinmg a piece, Vamtec positives, Orion positives, then I look at share price and see the miserable level of 15p. I have my reality check, its in my profit/loss column. I ask with all respect is the big guns on this site may need to just stop and think again why this lurches and languishes. Believe me, i dont want it, but I dont want to be forever topping up thinking I am being cute and clever, there no point if the blooming share prices doesnt rise and deliver a return.
The Orion CLNs do get overlooked in a lot of the projections we see on here, far more time has been spent discussing the JSE listing (as an example) which is insignificant when compared to the Orion deal. I do think that the Orion deal was a lifesaver here, that will come at a future cost. We have a history of these large investors selling down and cashing in , after all their business is to make money first and foremost. Not all achieve this (Golden Summit, Obtala).
This is more of a concern to me than the price of vanadium. At least if that stagnates at current prices for the next 12 months we should be making a better profit next year due to decreasing operational costs after the revamp and increased production.
UKsteve, I acknowledge there are the Orion CLN's, which Orion will want to convert at some stage, obviously your guess is as good as mine but Orion are very savvy and in my view will want to see a decent profit. One way for them to "have their cake and eat it" is to convert over a period of time so as to maximise their profit whilst at the same time providing cash for further loan projects. They certainly will not convert for some while as it would negate the profit element. Orion plainly did extensive DD on BMN like many LTH's and know what is in the pipeline. Hope this helps.
Quote from RNS of 30 November 2020:
Philip Clegg, Portfolio Manager at Orion, commented:
"We are thrilled to get the expansion at Vametco fully funded and to support the refurbishment plans at Vanchem. We are looking forward to partnering with Bushveld as it executes its growth strategy and ongoing advancement into battery technologies."
Partnering Bushveld as it executes its growth strategy doesn’t sound like words from an investor that wants to cut and run. Could of course be wrong and just my opinion.
I thought they can only convert up to the amount of the facility which has been used by BMN, and the conversion price is 17p. So if they were going to take some cash off the table they probably won't start selling until (very worst case)- mid 20's otherwise the investment is not worth the risk for them?
UKSteve how do you know Orion are going to convert and sell? I fully accept that is possible but equally hasn’t there been discussion here about them being a longer term investor?
Do you have knowledge to the contrary?
Once the SP starts to climb Orion will surely think again about selling down, that’s if they are thinking of it at all anyway.
Uncle John, how does that (the sp going up quickly), square with the Orion CLNs? This overhang is on the near future horizon and just interested to see how you think this would work. Orion are going to want their paydays and will start converting at a profit for them.
One thing is absolutely for sure and that is once the sp starts going up properly it will go up far, far quicker than it has drifted down, merely because it is in such an underrated situation. So the sell now, buy back later brigade at this point have a very good chance of having to buy back more expensively or elect to miss the boat altogether.
My typo... General point though is the substantive production is to the end of year into rising vanadium prices and lowering cost base
Having been investing (in the markets) for a long time, it seems to me that folk throw rationale out of the window, frequently.
In this case, they want it 'on a plate'...that is, with all the ducks suitably in a row. And at the very same time, they want no-one else to know, so they can buy low!
That is surely laughable? Yet it seems that is what a lot of people who comment here seem to expect.
Come on now...so investors have to wait beyond their comfort zone...so what? They don't have a right to proft 'now' just because they wish it.
You have to be in it to win it, says our friend, and others....otherwise, there are a zillion companies out there with fantastic figures and good news flow that are priced accordingly. Invest in them!
BMN is undervalued if one has the opinion that it has a great potential.
So yes...jam tomorrow. And not that supermarket shyte either....
Haha pb940 yes just a small point about complexly misleading use of numbers! Well spotted.
Prussel you do sound exactly like some posters just before the big rise in 2017 / 18. You are entitled to your opinion about the future share price, but now that the Vanadium price is on a solid upward trend and that the Vametco plant is running at full capacity then logic tells me that this will soon be reflected in the share price.
As for the cliched expression “jam tomorrow” isn’t that why everyone invests in shares? The future share price growth? Far better to invest when the share price is low rather than waiting until it has already risen.
Looks like someone has Hi-jacked cindercones account
With all due respect prussell1963, the reason for the drop is obvious - there are a couple of IIs selling off millions of shares over a protracted period. When that period ends, which could be tomorrow for all we know, you can expect a rerate similar to the 140% increase we saw the last time an II ran out of stock to sell.
Just a small point faramog but it was a Q1 update (3 months) not 5 months and there was only 2/3rds of that quarter actually producing.
Prussell's a hindsight investor, it never ends well.
dont blame you @prussell - but as I said over the w/e I expect the VFRB and Vanadium landscape to be rather different by year end (one way or another)
Still very happy as I am in for the long term but I did sell some this morning to give me some play money and liquidity - the update on and car-crash dial in did no favours at all and rather detracted from the slightly bigger picture which is that almost 5 months into the year we have only produces a bit less than 20% of the guidance production due to planned maintenance.
So with knocking 80% to go on a rapidly rising Vanadium price, both the costs will fall (as the fixed element is apportioned wider) and the operation costs will fall due to the maintenance and scale. Add in the rising vanadium price and we still make a very healthy profit over the year
I am afraid it is still jam next year ... but the blocks are coming together
TC good luck with your buy, at 15p you should expect returns........ unfortunately I am in at 18-19p range and as soon as I can recover my outlay will be an ex BMN holder as I can find better opps for my £5k. As I said, if i had taken Evraz my £5k would now be worth £7.4 k in 6 months, whereas with BMN its dropped to £4k and I dont see a stellar return in the short or medium term. Wish all BMN holders well, but expect a period of dumping to happen as many are unhappy with share price performance in Q4/20 and Q1-2/21.
Its pretty clear to me that Acacia sold down to fund their MUST investment which is entirely reasonable in my view.
If Enerox does well we will all benefit.
My periodic return to BMN site, and no change from the views and posting of a few months ago. The site is full of well informed and well intentioned posts, all very positive but basically most with a "jam tomorrow" theme. Looking at other V miners/processors, most have done substantially better than BMN who even with the V price rocketting cannot make a gain or hold a price much above 16-17p range. When I looked into V markets (Dec 2020) , Evraz was trading at 475p and recently touched 700p (back to 670p range today) but still at 40%+ gain. BMN has fallen from 19p to close to 15p (round numbers) and so a 25% reduction. Unfortunately whilst trying to be positive regards BMN, I fear that when I return in another 3 months the story will be the same, great posts, research, inmformation and comment .... but a languishing share price and further "jam tomorrow" statements. Hate posting in this negative manner, but unfortunately if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then its a duck!! Lets see when I return end of summer and I for one hope I am wrong!
The additional problem is the other RNS on Friday with another major holder, Acacia, selling down. That was needed like a hole in the head. We also have the Orion CLNs lurking and that is some overhang. I really think that Fortune thought the price of Vanadium would never get as low as it did and this has had a serious impact on profitability in the last two years. We can only hope there is a sustained increase in the price to upwards of $50/kg going towards Xmas.
PJx323
I think Libero has covered this in his post very well.
The one point he has not mentioned is Acacia Resources selling circa 16m shares to fund Ennerox/Mustang. As did Bushveld with its Invinity Goldings turning a 3 x profit in the process. Both these actions have to be seen a positive light as these are shifting some of their investment from the Vanadium producer to the end users in the VFRB markets which will help grow the electrolyte market and the markup of Bushveld's Vanadium products.
This recent fall is just part of the toing and froing that goes on, particularly on AIM. The share price rose to 18p in anticipation of the Q1 update and sadly it turned out to include a couple more (small) negatives than we'd have hoped. It always takes a trading day or two to shake off something like that, so yes it might fall a little more and bottom out somewhere around the 14p mark but as Libero has pointed out there's lots of positive news likely to be released soon and coupled with the rising price of V I'm fairly confident we'll soon be back nearer the top of the current trade range (18p).