James, I have been stating most of what you have covered, especially the tight margins as being one of the main reasons for the suppressed sp. I would add that there has been a general distrust and scepticism from past projections regarding failed production targets and the various initiatives that have been pushed back (JSE/Electrolyte plant, dividend,etc.).
We have to hope of an increase in the price of V, we know demand is there and expected to increase. The selling down by ii’s is more than unhelpful, not a lot we can do about it. We will have to see if there is anything further from Acacia. We also have to watch for movement on the Orion cln’s, a few comments around this today.
Faramog - The electrolyte plant will not be in full operation in 18 months time, the revised date of H22022, rather than August 2022, refers to the handing over of the plant. Full operation will take some time to build up. And obviously we need orders in prior to that. Earlier in the week I made a posting which stated the Q1 update will clarify whether construction actually started in February. A response to that by somebody supposedly ‘in the know’ hinted that everything was fine and it had started. These are the sort of misleading comments and misdirection which have now littered this board. That response got a like number of likes.
Regarding the JSE listing I recently corresponded with Chika regarding this and the official line is that it is “under review”. I was really trying to get to the bottom of the fact that we need to be listed on the main exchange here, the FTSE, but there was no response on this. I believe the main listing here is more important than the JSE listing, but it looks like this is some time off (if ever) , certainly not even imminent.
The issue of profitability on vanadium stales has been discussed many times on him. We really could do with the price of vanadium increasing another 30% to 40%. SP angel revised their target share price down to 31p earlier in the year based on the fact that the costs had increased to $20 and $26 for the two plants.
Electrolyte plant was previously due for commission in H2 2022, albeit with an approximate date of August 2022. H2 2022 has not changed but they now seem to have removed the reference to August so.leaving it open to be later in H2.
I think the figures for Q1 will come into line based on an average per day when considering the 35 day closure. I also think they’ll be something covering part of Q2 in relation to the strike and that we have hopefully made up for lost production.
It’s the other pieces of information that will be contained in the update that are more crucial, in my opinion. Take the Electrolyte plant, it either has or hasn’t started construction which was due to start on February 22nd. If it has then fine, although this just confirms the fact that the company Is not issuing news which I consider to be of significant value when it is achieved, and just bundling it into a quarterly update. If it hasn’t been started it’s understanding why and what any revised dates are as this will affect work going into 2022 onwards. I have always been of the opinion they cannot start to build this plant without having any orders in.
The trade activity on the share is now seeing the impact of having a very large number of PIs whose combined holding must be around 700 million shares. This is a direct consequence of not being able to get stable IIs on board coupled with a huge increase in the number of shares. Just a few years ago the total shares was just over 300 million with PIs holding around half. Far from ideal and not going to change in the immediate future, just makes to sp more prone to traders diving in and out.
I think we already know that last year wasn’t great, but the impact of Covid will apply to most companies (a minority did rather well!). We know Q1 has taken a hit from the 35 day closure for maintenance, but the mitigation here should be that the output was up to the targets for the days the mine was open and producing. I am more interested in the other news rolled into Q1 relating to the Electrolyte plant, Lemur, market listings, etc. I have expectations here. .
Nobody knows as the company has not updated the market for months. Some people have been completely guessing (e.g. RNS imminent next week), but over and above the last planned date for commencement of works which was 22nd of February , no revised plans or dates have been given. You could assume work did start in February and be wrong , but we should know more in the Q1 update one way or another.
Lionel, you would also need to take into account VM Investments as they have benefited greatly from services supplied to Bushveld, although it would be impossible to attribute this at an individual level.
The JSE listing is on the back burner at present, it is under feview and the company will update the market in due course. I have never thought that a listing on the JSE would make any great difference and it would have had more political weight when competing for SA / Eskom business. I did try and extract information from the company regarding the JSE listing conditions and the fact that it had to be currently listed on the main exchange (FTSE and not AIM) , but the company did not respond to that point which must have come up when they carried out the (expensive) investigation work.
That quote from MN was from two years ago in response to a question asked by email from a poster on this bb (sorry cannot recall). I think others also had a similar upbeat response. It will be interesting to see what the Q1 update has to say about the Electrolyte plant, the build was supposed to start on February 22nd. I cannot see them starting it without firm orders in the pipeline, whether from Eskom or elsewhere, but at present the company have not reported anything for months regarding orders or plant progress. This next update, hopefully in the next week or so, will possibly answer a few questions.