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Pendragon, dropped back below pivot, which confirms the importance of waiting for a closing price for confirmation of pivot break. Sp, still above recent pivot low, and within the recent retracement price area. WINE, I mentioned yesterday, still making new high today, 1%+. Retail sector down today.
Out of curiousity, looked at retail sector today and noticed a motor retailer Pendragon, sold all its motor retail for 397 million, to an american coy. A special dividend of 24.5 pence is to be issued sometime in first two quarters of 2024. Pendragon, will transform into a pure software coy, concerning motor retail software . Chart goes up from left to right , so in bullish uptrend. Sp, broke above price pivot today, and currently very active with a retracement area. Retail sector chart, is still not in a definite bullish phase, as defined by the sector pivot levels I already gave recently.
Fog, "nice analogy but some stocks have a funny habit of retracing back/moving up to key historical levels...They are after all, for the most part, bought and sold by algos." - You're quite right. I was being a bit provocative, though I do believe in the long term, you have to look at fundamentals and where the business is headed. Short term there is a lot of following the trend. And as more and more people use TA so it self fulfils.
Posted, on CURY, today. Retail sector technically in downtrend , requires to close above 2422, to change to positive. Reviewed top three risers in sector. Only WINE, was in a secular uptrend from left to right of chart, and making new high.
WINE, has forged a large bullish reverse head and shoulders, and is beginning to break out upwards, on the chart. Volume seems to support the bullish scenario. WINE. price target is difference between low of the head(bottom), and the shoulder line, added to the shoulder line.
Star gate, great TA as always, any chance you could take a look at CURY and post your thoughts?
I followed the volume record until 4.30pm, when it was close to my second volume projection and checked 6.56pm, when there was a large increase in figure to 4,401,000. Best guess, is that there was a substantial amount of volume added some time after 4.30pm. In future I will take the in day volume figures, with more than a grain of salt.
Fogthemogg, thanks for dismissing the "flat earth", concept of sp, movement. My earlier volume projection, is revised to 2,165,000 for today. Now revised from lowest volume for 30 days, to 24 days.
Hardboy, nice analogy but some stocks have a funny habit of retracing back/moving up to key historical levels...They are after all, for the most part, bought and sold by algos.
Of course it gives back half its gains from yesterday, it's the f'ing FTSE!
Sp, fall today on lightest projected volume for 30 trading days , projected volume for today is 1,840,000 approximate. Serious sp, movements, are usually supported by heavier relative volume. Higher sp, bottoms, than the previous seem likely.
Jessie Livermore, the famous american speculator, was surprised that most people wrongly assumed, that he did not keep an interest in the volume of shares traded. Volume, at its basics, reflects fundamental interest in the equity. Without volume, there is no fuel, to represent the fundamental value. Successful traders, from the early part of the twentieth century, admitted that they exploited the phenomenon of trends, invariably to take profit out of middle section of the trend, effectively, missing out on the first third and the last third. Any viewed chart, reveals three basic sp, movements, downtrends, sideways congestions , or uptrends. A 50 day simple moving average, on trending shares, will invariably reveal long periods when the sp, is either above or below, the moving average, which supports the concept that profit, is made from those long periods. No one is suggesting that trends do not represent fundamentals , or volume of shares traded, for that matter.
If you have ever stopped and asked anyone for directions to where you want to be, has the person you stopped said they can't tell you unless you tell them which way you've come? We are where we are. Chartists can only look at where we've come from. Over the long term where a share price goes depends on the fundamentals of the business.
While, fundamental analysis and technical analysis, have the same basic goal, of achieving profit. Technical analysis, supposes, that all fundamental information, is reflected in the sp, movement, and there is no attempt to minimise the role of fundamental data. Lynch and Buffet , may be exceptional individuals, able to mine fundamental data, for relevant details which most ordinary people, are not capable of doing, out of the multitude of data. Charles Dow, who formulated Dow theory , did not get an American stockmarket index named after him, without the powers that be at the time, thinking that his technical method explained much. Gann, broadened the interpretation of technical analysis, and was involved in tuition on the subject.
I think the worm has finally turned. Wouldn't mind another nibble around 2,400p if we trace back a little though. This is a FTSE name after all, they do struggle to hold gains...
I can see the temptation, but IMO this one still has legs.
Might slice a few if we get to 26.50 ish, but if not, personally I am happy to hold and collect the dividend in the meantime.
That was a very good update. This one does not usually rise 7% plus in a day.
It might be back to around 6% up at the close, but I do not think we are going to drift back down to the 2300's in the days ahead, for example. Time will tell of course. GLA.
Shares went up because the share price had adjusted for the bad news in the RNS issued in December and there was no more bad news. For gap watchers 2457 and 2472 were the targets. They were both taken out. I am wary of other technical patterns. As a stock it has a tendency to trade inversely to GBPUSD.
Just sold my Shares, slight gain with the dividends Hopefully it will go back down before it goes Ex so I can buy back in
Nothing like repurposing a spare investment into cold hard cash if BATS were to lighten its shareholding in ITC Limited as foreshadowed by the CEO today. Heap good medicine either for net debt, share buy-backs and would underpin the deliverability of future divvies to all the naysayers
Well, Livermore did make fabulous wealth...apart from when he went broke three times. Then shot himself dead a few years after the last bankruptcy. Absolutely agree though that his was a fascinating life, from what I have read.
IMO, Lynch and Buffett have a more impressive track record, by quite some margin, however.
NervousNelly, healthy scepticism , one thing , but some reading of Charles Dow theory, might remedy your scepticism. Surely you have heard of the famous Dow market index named after the famous originator of the theory Charles Dow. It seems odd that your reading has not extended to the Dow book, after more than a century after publication. Dow was the father of technical analysis , enabling famous and fabulously wealthy speculator Jessie Livermore, to profit from equity chart methods. No doubt you will approach the Charles Dow theory, with the acquisition of his time honoured and hallowed scriptures, in great reverence.
Excellently said, NN. I'm in 100% agreement. They always come up with (so-called "clever") explanations as to why something happened with this absolute garbage. After the event, Never before.
They are just revealed to be amateurs, time and again. Fundementals rule. This gobbledygook - designed to make them look clever - if BS.
Really don't wish to be rude, but what does all that mean? The share price has moved today as a reaction to the FY results, not because of any make-believe trigger a chartist has made up?
As to how this affects the sentiment going forward from a chartist POV, surely this real news is the catalyst for future movements, not some theoretical witchcraft. Basically you're saying it's bullish because it went up. Wouldn't that news have been more useful yesterday?
Tobacco sector largest % riser today , and the entire rise was attributed to BATS. The large down gap of 5/12/23, has now been recovered, and both the tobacco sector chart and the BATS chart, have broken above the secular, three point downtrend, which originated on 20/9/23, which removes the former bearish trend. In the circumstance, the sp, congestion from 6/12/23, can now be viewed as a period of bullish accumulation.
BATS Preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2023
I dialled into the the post results presentation. Tadeu Marroco, Chief Executive gave a boring overview followed by even more boring detail from the CFO (Javid). Good cash flow, dividend up (2%) but less than inflation , cigarette sales down (mostly USA), but Non-Combustibles (Vapour, Heated Product and Modern Oral) sales were up 13.6% (constant currency). Difficult to get very excited despite their attempts to make their clear vision to "Sharpen Execution" in a world market wanting more nicotine. If that was not enough the CEO came back and tried again to enthuse us. That was 40 minutes of telling us how much they were doing and how much there is to do to keep shareholders happy.
Then the analysts questions but OMG the execs gave long winded answers.
I hold them for yield, they are doing that safely and I can sleep at night. Other holding have to provide the growth to beat inflation.
Great results in my view. Debt is down, dividend is up, revenue is holding up very nice giving high confidence of continued high generative cash flow going forward.
No where else are you going to get double digit yield with this very low level of risk. A screaming buy.