Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I agree with you Larsh.
Ray time to give up the day job, as a clown your supposed to be funny, maybe try accountancy that’s seems to be more your thing.
Filtered
An acquisition sp of £2.80 is too small and very unlikely (Ray/Murphy). InfinisandBeyond is aiming for £12 and I would say on sale this will be well above that potentially 3x above. Whatever the case, the moment sales flow in, which is inevitable, Avacta will become an acquisition target with buyers paying a premium to take them out early before they become too big.
I think people can make their own minds up. Some impressive biographies in there all driving this company forwards with multiple lines of development in both the diagnostics and therapeutics divisions:
https://avacta.com/about/people/
It was £2.70 - £2.75 only a month ago Ray. Why did you not sell out then if you are so pessimistic?
Is it because you had no shares to sell?
Sales are a given and it’s been two working days since EU CE marking. Being impatient won’t really make the process quicker, it just shows a lack of experience.
The UK is scaling to make 2m tests per day, Avacta capacity is scaling up to 30m per month (potentially more) and covid testing is running for years. That doesn't even consider Europe and RoW. Once the inevitable sales land, then £2-3Bn will be a small amount for an acquisition with the sp reflecting around £12 per share.
No-one will pay 10b for Avacta now. maybe 2 or 3 in a bidding war if they can leverage the lft and other parts of the business effectively. Judging from this thread I think many holders would be happy. the avacta wait experience is less pleasant than being pulled through a hedge backwards. A hedge that gets thicker just as you think you are approaching its edge. It exudes potential but leaves you with uncertainty over when and to what degree that potential is going to be realised. I sound desperate to sell. But I am not. I am just desperate for a bloody change of mood from when are we gonna catch a fish to landing the feckers left, right and centre
Testing and Covid-19 are here to stay. Avacta capacity is in the several millions per month and could hit much higher. It’s been just over a week since MHRA CE marking and two working days for EU CE marking. After MHRA CE marking, Al Smith states “I am confident that the AffiDX® test will **now** play a significant part in this process”. This to me indicates that UK sales have been agreed and it’s a matter of time before the final signature. The same goes for EU sales.
The sales are inevitable whether announced this afternoon or later, but the moment they are announced, Avacta quickly targets a larger market cap. The ideal time for any company to be targeting Avacta for an acquisition is now when the price is lower ($10Bn) rather than later when it becomes a completely different beast.
I'm afraid that until Avacta sells something it's an opportunity that is being missed!
They are more likely to sell off the diagnostic part rather than the whole company, that is IF they are selling.
AS has hinted this in the past, as his baby is the cancer side, then covid came along as an opportunity not to be missed.
Fingers crossed HMG consider us "in the fight against Covid".
You have to wonder if Innova’s pariah status has set back contract negotiations. Hopefully in our favour.
The world wants our test. We want to sell it... has the U.K. Govt suddenly perked up its interest with Innova’s implosion? Are we in multiple contractual negotiations but are unable to supply all parties? Everyone wants their slice of the pie but it’s only so large at the moment. Sales will come, that’s for certain.
These links encompassing UK govnt policy towards Takeover of businesses active in fight against Covid -19,
MAY cause a predator to think twice about a bid.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/enterprise-act-2002-guidance-on-changes-to-the-turnover-and-share-of-supply-tests-for-mergers-orders-2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-protections-for-uk-businesses-key-to-national-security-and-fight-against-coronavirus
Will we ever see a f****g order, they really are taking the **** with this, immediately, Jesus wept it’s soul destroying, nearly as bad as Sirius bloody Minerals.
Can we wait until the share prices is completely depressed and everyone is well in the red before dreaming of takeovers..
Hopefully this thing will have chance to really fly before any takeover.
54...GSK could still do a deal though...keen on cancer strategies...GLA
https://www.ft.com/content/a8edb8fb-4ab6-49ed-8c81-326c862d75ec
I think if large contract orders come in, this will focus the minds of those CEOs from potential suitors watching from the side lines!! Will be interesting times ahead!! Just need to see some orders now!!
If we are the sovereign test then there is no way the Government will allow Avacta to be sold to a foreign buyer. GSK are tied up with splitting out their consumer division so are unlikely to be bidding in my opinion
I do agree Maric that we are a realistic acquisition target in the near term, but my bet would be on Danaher or GSK.
More like Innova buy Avacta!
I mean can you imagine it! £4 would probably do it and the MMC will be appeased by them opening up a factory in Wales to compete with other testers in a highly competitive space.
The IP can then be exported to China along with the Deepverge collaboration, a big fk up as far as I’m concerned!
Boris and his cronies can say Britain is open for business on the world stage and they’ll get a smarter test.
AV6000 will have a whole new chemical war head and no one will give a toss as all the back handers roll on in.
Why is there only one monopolies commission!
Getting fed up with an investment that’s becoming a political football!
Trek
I've been mulling this one over. Avacta sales will provide a significant revenue to drive the therapeutics division. However, it will put Avacta in to the mid to large cap status. In my view this places Avacta as an acquisition target. As an acquiring company, right now would be the time to start lining up the required funds and potential peripheral assets. Acquisition of BBI recently would be in keeping with Avacta as a second acquisition shortly after. The time frame for this would likely be in the coming few months, prior to Avacta becoming too big for acquisition, and I'm suspecting talks are already going on in the background. This is all IMO, but let's wait and see.