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@neutronic the £1 (€1 to €2) margin was interesting. I was actually surprised it was at that level as my own thoughts were that it might be less. However, it's good to be positively surprised. The LFD industry for some time has been working on very tight margins, AS gave very good margins.
The great bit of news, from this board and my own thinking was that we priced in about £1 per test. Based purely on speculation.
Actually have Al answer that question, and know the margin, plus actually letting BBI go because the margin could not be achieved is actually quite promising.
This means, its not blindly working towards selling, no price strategy etc.
They are thinking about the competition, suppliers are negotiating their margin and if these work, we proceed. The validation of BBI not proceeding is the positive this due diligence is being done for the sales market, and at the end, we will have a profitable product, with plenty from the perceived £1 estimate.
Infins, this really will be my last post here, but to answer your question. Remember I divorce the SP from the company. The SP a month ago reflected imminent/immediate sales on the back of being certified to sell. (I can't work out what the LFT is priced into the SP, my guess without it, it is probably around 120p.) When this did not happen the sell off started and continued with each day of no sales. Then it waited for Monday and that news was more delay. Will we get home use? probably but when? We have to accept that AS when talking in vague terms about the future, is pretty much discounted now. Manufacture 30m, by who, by when, for what order? Cost of test will be less and the profit margin will be less. This really sounded like a walk down to me. Bella said France was going all out on testing to save their summer. Great! but its not us, so who cares? The world is moving on very quickly and all the market is doing is just recalibrating the AVCT SP to reflect that income is likely to be less than previously indicated and therefore potentially less profitable. That's all I have said.
All the non-covid stuff is still great and very exciting but is a while away yet.
If all does come good on the LFT, then equally great, but we don't seem to have any inside track with any govt or large company as of yet, and as we know the test will not be distributed free by the govt any more after August, so it will be competitive against other similar products
And for the last time there is simply no evidence at all, whatsoever that my post's, or my buys & sells affect the SP.
I have been steadily been re-investing my profits made here elsewhere and they are doing fine. I have no intention to buy back into here until I see good news in the way of an order that I can value better the potential income stream, by which time I am sure the SP will be a lot higher than it is now. I will not be buying in lower to try and guess that an order is imminent, as history suggests that is a mugs game.
last post was response to MCM. This is a response to Wyn. Are you trying to buy in cheaper again because that is a pretty one sided post. The list of things that hasn't come to past is long. And the missed deadlines too. But it is absurd to paint the situation as just one of failure.
The big successes in the last year are
1.licensing and partnerships 2. We have a lft of a quality that surpassed all expectations and is the best in the world. 3. We have extra capacity that AS didn't promise or bank on - 30m in Europe. It will sell in the coming month or two because we have the best test and are in the middle of the worst pandemic in more than 100 years. That will transform the sp
Not really. It was poor presentation. We got that 30m new European capacity and instead of folk going away thinking about the profits that can come from that they went away wondering if we have a sales problem. We have no sales problem. Just need time to complete negotiations and go through legal formalities of contracts. We can expect some big buyers in the coming days/weeks/months. The capax will get fully booked before the end of summer. And as it starts getting booked AS will start arranging additional capax. The SP will surge to 5 quid as a minimum on the back of these happenings. Obviously much more if the contracts are longer than a year and as we start to get above 30m.
All of that is almost a given and has derisked the situation further. HMG sovereign contract in next month or so is in my view extremely likely but we cannot treat it as a given. It would just be a massive cherry on top and with it as well as the above we could then look at 10 quid by end of summer.
"But I’m yet to see any of you call it correct consistently."
How has all the "proper" research gone then? All the rns's, the interviews, the presentations? All the "it must be us" posts, all the dot joining to make it inconceivable that AVCT could not be THE govt test? The Huff post article, the £8b budget test program that AVCT HAD to be apart of, the NDA to explain the silence, the promises of Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2 and now Q3 a year later from the lips of AS himself. What happened to Bams, the saliva test? What happened even to the Mologic tie up? How has that all panned out? Not so much a misstep as not a single piece of announcement has to come to pass either on time, or at all, so far. Not one, Not a single one. Think about that before you get quite so sanctimonious, would you?
So by all means have a pop at the charts but they have been far, far more predictively accurate then the alternative and you know its true, because you keep slating me for being deliberately, connivingly, negative because I said, "according to the chart, that the SP is likely to falls below 266p it will go to 242p,... if that goes, 235p, ...if that goes to 214p,...if that goes 198p."
But fear not, I have been unloading since 259p over the last 3 months with the final sale yesterday. I am down to a smaller, core holding now and will hope that the original Cancer therapy is successful and in over the next few years all will be well from a Share price point of view. There will be ample time to increase my holding as and when I think its advantageous.
PiersD. The fundamentals are better. We just got 30m additional European capacity to draw on. which equates over the 3-5 year testing frame AS mentioned to a total profit of between 1 and nearly 4 billion Euros.
DOH, fundamentals will always override trading analysis. There's no argument from me there. But if you don't believe in charts then you're a fool. Even if you don't want to trade, they help to time your entry and exit points. I believe in Avacta, but I'm only here to make money. If I get the chance to sell and buy back cheaper/accumulate free shares, I'll take it every time.
There is a good reason for the drop, there's a gap fill down to 155 which is probably going to play out (we've dropped well past the important 175 level). You can either trade it to your advantage or ride it out. The charts are in control at the moment.
The reason they're all out today is to get try and encourage some sells and help the share price on it's way down through the gap fill. Once the gap fill has been completed, we should see a reversal. All the bashers will buy in and take the trade, which should bring us quickly back up by 10% or so, followed by some profit taking.
This share is being traded for the time being so expect volatility.
Today's negative dribble is nothing to the mountain of positive dribble we had yesterday.
Yesterday was a day to rest expectations. Driven by Big Al. Accepted by the market. Nothing to do with neagtive dribble on here, needing to wear big boy pants or the other nonsense that gets posted by those fiddling while Rome burns.
The SP is rebalancing to better reflect the short term and long term risks. Why that comes as a surprise to some of the more "intelligent" LTH's here is a mystery.