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hits you can't take one stance and then the other, you have talked for ages about zero trust he can deliver hence the low price, and now you talk about priced in because it nailed on? which is its .. it does seem like you find a different angle each day to want to suggest there is no up side, even if those angles are completely contradictory! Come on now its very transparent.. SL
GavinM,
There is no way you knew about any RNS being logged, let alone specifics (which you did not provide) unless you were privy to inside information.
Anyone can post 'RNS logged' when a news rich period is expected, get lucky and claim to be a sage.
If you did have advance knowledge, please enlighten us all how you knew this for certain
In the meantime, I still call BS from a chancer, especially going by your previous predictions, none of which have materialised.
No apology from me
good luck to the genuine investors here
Baits, the difference surely here is that this isn't an exploratory drill. The gas is known to be there and the two existing wells were producing to some extent up until shutdown 4.5 years ago.
There surely is no question whatsoever in anyone's mind that gas is without a doubt going to flow at some point, so that fact must be priced in. by now
What isn't priced in yet is - how much gas and by when?
For me, the reason the price is low is simply a matter of trust. The 'market' and in many cases, investors and other groups of people who have chunks of cash looking for a home need to see the proof before parting with any significant sums. Unfortunately, GL has considerable form for stating timings and estimates and then not only failing to deliver, but being so far wrong that nobody takes anything he states in RNS releases seriously.
We also have to accept that he has a propensity to dilute at the drop of a hat and 'add value' by spewing out shares at a market discount every time. We have a proven asset with a CPR confirming reserves and resources. That £6 million dilution that hammered long term shareholders should've been a reserves based lending loan if he wanted to buy out the remaining 49% of the field.
We will soon have close to 2.5 billion shares in issue so it will be harder for the share price to rise. I would like to think (hope) that once we get details of how much gas we are SELLING, and the subsequent projected revenue from finally becoming a gas producer, the market will add that value to our market capitalisation and we will rise.
I also do not believe it will be anywhere close to some of the 'guesses' we have here. This field has a short life cycle and a decommissioning cost attached, we also have a loan to pay back and then there's price risk etc. For me, a price of 3p per diluted share by the end of this month would be fair value. Anything more would be a bonus and anything less will 'probably' mean GL has diluted yet again to buy leases on farmers' fields in the a$$ end of Cornwall to dig some trenches and move a smidge of geothermal heat to the local community centre so they can boil some eggs for the summer fete.
If we get to 3p I'll take a few off the table and be happy with a double bubble profit.
All the best
Lots to come behind first gas.
1 sidetrack this year, more sidetracks in 23. Other assets to develop, too, (Brockham, Lidsey, geothermal and, if the appeal goes their way, Balcombe). Plus the possibility of other deals.
If the company seeks to expand via share-financed acquisitions, then they will be wanting to see their share price climb much higher.
Best wishes all invested, or thinking of investing, in Angus.
Its not priced in but it’s not going to hit 5p either. Be realistic. Maybe 2.5 or so but that still a close bag. So much to come. These are investments in the end and we are much closer than most to the big company making event, weeks away actually ... You can’t get rich quick. But a month or so is pretty quick!!!
I think you are wrong there HITS gas not priced in yet because the gas is not going to the grid just yet. You can not price something in if it is not there yet. We are waiting just like Oil companies do when drilling for Oil they know it is there but they have to get it out until they do it is not priced in.
so we all assume evryone knows gas will be produced in next few days and that is priced in
so how on earth are we to get 3p-5p in next few days so may predict??
It's really not about first gas at all - though that's obviously a crucially necessary step in the process.
Nobody but nobody thinks that Saltfleetby is going to be a duster - so it's a given that it wll produce gas - so it's a given that first gas must have been priced in long before now.
The only relevant questions are what will consistently achievable levels of monthly production be and from when?
Not less than 4p
I cant see any guaranteed share price when gas is on.
If we could we could all be potential millionaires putting our every last penny on the increase.
We all expect it to go up (That's a given), but some of the views on here from 2p to 20p can be a bit wild.
I appreciate they wont make as much out of the hedge compared to CURRENT market value but they will still make money or what's the point of a hedge. (Hedge is crated to receive a guaranteed payment for a Guaranteed supply) if they supply more they can sell at whatever price the market offers at that time. Could be more or less than the hedge, that's the gamble.
Nobody expected the Russian issue and the gas price multiplying like it has. So the hedge was done at average prices in a normal none war environment. If the conflict ends, then probably gas prices would reduce (Especially with a New Russian Leader), if the conflict escalates and NATO gets involved with the fighting then Gas/Oil etc will rise, but we might not have any say in it as they could do a sanction on all Gas and Oil produced in our country for the war effort !!
The options are endless but hey lets just hope the gas is turned on, the income comes in and hopefully the Russian issue is resolved as amicable as possible. Rainbows and Unicorns I suppose.
We are in a different market and it’s not 100s of % in a day any more like the covid gold rush but should get a decent uplift with sidetrack then imminent. Price? No idea - but hope it settles with a 2 in front of it prior to the big one later in the month.
When the gas is switched on what would be the expected sp
SB - you’re more sophisticated and less blatant than that the rest of the boiler room boys/girls I’ll give you that. But have an agenda all the same.
Gavin, so when you said the RNS was logged, you meant in relation to Aleph shares, yes?
Of course you did 4FS!
GavinM,
Welcome Back.. What ever happen with that Shell bid you were promising back in April or is that still on the cards?
Clearly the next RNS is the switch on
Croqman
You're welcome to apologies over the RNS release
Not everyone bets blind
Agreed crocqman, their posting history since joining on April 1st does not inspire confidence. We do not need rampers…
GavinM,
So what evidence do you have that an RNS has been logged?
You either have inside information, or are talking BS.
I think we know the answer
RNS has now been logged....just question of what time it gets released today
If such a thing happened it wouldn't be for the gas it would be for the storage. Shell are a utility supplier so it would make perfect sense. The likelihood is still pretty low I would say.
"Shell will take this over lock stock and barrel once the connection goes live"
yes to increase their gas suplies by one fifty seven thousandths - REALLY? They spend more on toilet paper than SFB is worth
Shell will take this over lock stock and barrel once the connection goes live
Expect a Mcap valuation of £60 million on initial offer
lol BV