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and BB completely silent !
Its a funny share this one.
Suppose its all been said ... let the resource do the talking. whilst we await abundant news
PS Love that mining commission fella, the way he talks 'I want to tell you this, I'm really telling you, let me say this, 'sweetest project' .. passionate. Hes a character, don't get me wrong , very astute and knowledgeable. I'd have a few beers with him great guy. Stay tuned in that quarter ... GLA :)
swest do you mean the coo? If so yes you can tell he know his stuff.
Friday was a whirlwind I thought just on technicals we should drop back a bit didn't happen. The rise won't be in a straight line but I think people just watching charts miss the bigger picture. This is financed. It just needs the licence. With hzm my other similar share we had thr licence but not the finance. Then the finance came a few months later we were st mcap 50% of npv (company had started building the mine).
What's thr npv here? $1-2bn+ pending dfs even at conservative lith pricing then factor modest further dilution possibly as part of gov deal and we should be min 60p-£1 funanced and permitted possibly over that when mine build commences. So it's tempting to say 25% is a great result but I would say 200% in next 8 months or so from current level is very possible on npv basis. Btw I do expect npv from the dfs to be huge but how the market values it is another thing. But for me 2x-3x from here to mine build then 5x+ from here mine built and producing (20 months+?) is very achievable. Suspect enough people know this that there will be mode buying than selling in next few weeks and we see steady progress upwards.
Then when ml lands I expect possibly more institutuonal interest and possibly a bigger jump....good to be in when that happens!
Martin K Ayisi, CEO Minerals Commission. He is the Man :)
to answer your other question, npv $1.3bn using conservative pricing.
If you insert current Li pricing and turn the handle npv will blow your head off and u'll need to sit down.
PS fond memories of HZM for me, massive soft spot for HZM and nickel, departed in profit there and ploughed it into .. here! and I'm fully loaded here. Had to make a difficult choice to exit HZM, if I recall it was such a large capex needed. I lost touch with it but hope their going great guns. U can't be in big in em all , so my colours are nailed to ALL now. atb
Guess with capex + opex relatively stable increased price will make a dramatic difference to the npv. The challenge is always when the price is volatile does the market buy your npv figure. The closer you are to production and the closer the price is to your npv pricing then it really should do. Of course what you want is huge npv with conservative pricing because then the market understands your fcf at actual pricing will be off the scales. I suspect the dfs will pitch under current pricing then we will be pleasantly surprised (well, not really) at start of production when actual pricing is much higher.
I am very excited about both investments in total value I hold a lot more hzm but as of this week I now have 860m+ shares here and may try to get to 1m has a nice ring to it. I really like the numbers I especially like low opex - always try to position in miners with low opex they can ride anything once financed if bottim quartile. This investment ticks every box but obviously we need the all important licence. Gla
Hi swest42,
Friday's move was a big relief. I'm also in big on this share and the last few weeks have been testing, to say the least.
I'm not sure what triggered the move up yesterday, when it should have bounced back a lot quicker, in my opinion. Maybe it broke a resistance level? Maybe shorts covering and leaving with tyre tracks across their backs! Maybe due to news of spod prices going up again? Or maybe news coming soon? Whatever, triggered it. It's a very welcome start to its journey to achieving full value. Onwards and upwards!
Managed to grab a few more the right side of 30p friday morning..... really starting to get excited by lithium in general, looking forward to a few good RNS updates over the next couple of months and love the good information provided by several regular posters here on this BB. Thanks for the regular updates folks.
I wonder if this news (see link) had anything to do with Friday's move. I can't read the whole story as I don't have access but looks like there could be some movement towards sign-off of the IMF loan to Ghana. Maybe everyone has been waiting on this?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/imf-director-says-ghana-has-taken-enough-pain-to-unlock-aid?leadSource=uverify%20wall
If this is more likely to go through, hopefully chocks away!
I am here for the Divi’s. I heard any where from 20-42p.
Divis - would be nice but if the resource is tier 1 it doesn't tend to stay with the juniors too long. Everything I have researched so far this will be sought after and I expect a bid at production. Would be nice though (divis), just being realistic more likely a t/o.
9billion,
I don't think that article had anything to do with the rise, as other Lithium stocks were jumping too.
Check out the chart on the link below that compares ALL with BHL since their peak. Note they have very similar trading patterns, not the big ALL drop on the BO lies just brought ALL back in line with BHL. Now they both jumped up at the same time by fairly similar percentages (25.2% vs 21.6%. Yet BHL is not as far down the line as ALL. So it is all about Lithium or Lithium Stocks bullishness by the looks of it.
Chart:
https://ibb.co/hyC1d3d
Hi haggismchaggis1,
Thanks for your thoughts. You may be right on this and there does seem to be returning bullish sentiment towards lithium stocks.
I do find the Ghana / IMF Loan news interesting though. I've been wondering the reason for the slow MIIF negotiations. It seems in both parties interests to get on with things and if MIIF aren't going to strike a deal after a 40% price drop then I'm guessing there's something else holding things up. I just wonder if MIIF are holding back until the IMF loan is in hand. Geopolitics at play. If this gets resolved, as the Bloomberg article suggests, then maybe the MIIF investment follows swiftly after. Just guesswork on my part.
Thanks for posting the chart. There is a decent correlation between the stocks.
9billion,
Thanks and good theories.
I wonder if MIIF need the DFS before they can invest, as the risk level is currently only based on a PFS and would drop substantially on DFS.
Have a read of the below article. Scroll down to "Usually, four stages of proof are undertaken which represent the general levels of certainty reached:" and read from there.
https://finfeed.com/investor-101/a-retail-investors-guide-to-all-things-pre-feasibility-study/
As it's only the DFS that determines if the mine goes ahead, I can't see why MIIF would invest prior to that, the risk level is likely too high until the mine go ahead is confirmed in the DFS.
I don't think there needs to be a BFS as Piedmont have already given the financial backing to build the mine.
haggismchaggis1,
This is another valid point. Some investors don't like to invest until the results of a DFS are published. Maybe MIIF are following this approach? Maybe the sequence of events will be DFS, MIIF and mining license?
9billion,
They might even need to wait to after the ML, as the mine can't go ahead without that too. It's possible that they could get inside info from the Government that the ML is about to be signed off at a ceremony, tipping them off to make their investment ahead of it or even at the same ceremony so that the news has even more impact.