The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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It doesn't take 3 years for that.
The Tanz Government need to agree their cut so ACP can progress.
3 years old and no progress. The Tanz Government must think their land squatting LOL.
Why?
You clearly have done little reading regarding solid state.....
I don't know what MB thinks if one day their asset is valued as nothing.
Shhhssssss
Can you point me to the RNS’s in the last several years saying “imminent”?
Investing with these liars they've been saying 'imminent' for several years.
True, not easy to raise capital in this climate. But if you believe Blackrocks figures they have $150m+ raised (conditional on completing the deal of course, and it could be the last hurdles are hardest) so there is definitely appetite in these kinds of projects. They have the worlds largest non China graphite trader on board. Our capex is a lot less than Blackrocks and that's a good thing. GLA
All the information we have at the moment is over 2.5 years old. Things have obviously changed a lot since then. I don’t know if or how much of that information can be carried forward. However, it’s all we have so I’ll get my calculator out and try to make some sense. Old figures NPV US$430 million, CAPEX US$39.7 million IRR 91%. Shares in issue 588 million. All this for the initial phase utilising 25% of the resource. So, because, I’ve been so hammered on HZM, I’m going to be really, really optimistic and pessimistic with my calculator and also round things to suite.
So optimistic NPV £400 million, CAPEX £30 million and 700 million shares (inclusive of government share). Debt equity ratio 70:30. £21 million debt £9 million equity. So after government agreement with a share price of 3p. That would mean 300 million new shares to be issued. Future valuation up to 40p a share!
Pessimistic NPV £300 million, CAPEX £60 million and 700 million shares. Debt equity ratio 50:50. £30 million debt £30 million equity. So after government agreement with a share price of 3p. That would mean one billion new shares to be issued. Future valuation up to 18p a share!
If that amount can be raised in this climate, well!
Don’t believe anything I say as I don’t have a clue.
I have definitely learnt my lessons on HZM.
Going forward with Armadale I sincerely hope we recoup some of our losses, however, I need to keep in mind recouping losses must not be a driver in the decisions made for ACP. I must treat this in isolation, but also, take into account the lessons learnt from HZM. This share would need to get to 10p for me to recover all HZM losses, so I’m not looking at that as a factor.
Unfortunately I can’t offset against capital gains as all my investments were in either my SiPP or ISA.
I have 3 million shares here @ 2.7p. (Not the 3.5 million I said yesterday, sorry I was getting carried away)
Armadale currently is a waiting game. A week, month or a year I haven’t a clue. To be honest it’s so long ago something substantial happened here I’ve forgotten all the details. Too focused on HZM. I’ll need to look at it all over again and work out what is the best here.
Laurie (again off topic here, apologies) I too like Rover saw HZM as the banker and I had something like 40% of my total invested in it maybe later 50% as it was what I was adding the last year or so. What was interesting I was roundly critisized on the board by many when I pruned my position after the first financing round (I didn't like the deal). Which was odd because I wan't bigging the share up to sell, I was pretty neutral/not impressed with the deal.
The lesson learnt is there is no such thing as a nailed on investment and that's applicable to both AIM and main market investments. So diversifying sufficiently to not lose your shirt on one investment whilst retaining enough upside to make money when things go well (nobody invests in AIM stocks for 10% overall return - no point for the risk - lets face it where here for multiples). I was lucky, I still have other investments, and even until a month or so ago I didn't think HZM would go to 0.
The other thing is obviously not to fall in love with a stock, things can change that make a good investment into a less good one. You constantly have to analyse and determine what the exit point is. There's plenty of jaded investors here and I always wondered why they don't sell, they obviously don't need that money too badly. The minimum is always 0, so if you don't believe in mgt / the project its best to take the loss and move on. I am awaiting Blackrock developments here as I firmly believe they have to move first before we can get going then the clock starts ticking on this one.
To Rover's point there are positives here that HZM didn't have. JM took a near 8 figure remuneration from HZM in his tenure without contributing any of his own money to the company. MB here is very different here in this regard and has put in a lot of his own money to making this project. This is one of the reasons I stay invested. GLA
Rover, thank you for your reply, I have no choice but to take the loss and I have to and I am coming to terms with it, it is extremely painful but I will of course get through it. I had HZM as a banker and it had started to restore my faith in AIM as everything was working like clockwork.
I must move on but great to hear both you and Wasa are ok
Lucky,
Thanks, I hope all is okay with yourself and you are able to take the loss on HZM.
At the height of my investments a couple of years ago I had a third in HZM a third here and a third in funds. I was also daft and took a bit out of funds and put it into HZM to average down.
I’m invested here to the tune of 3.5 million shares and I’m down here as well. I was treating HZM as my banker and this as the outsider. After HZM my confidence is shot and haven’t a clue if or when these may come good.
Sorry for the late reply, Dad in Phylis Tuckwell 🙈
HZM has been an awful experience and one I hope I never encounter again, that said I couldn’t afford another mistake like that.
You are soooo right about Hope / Anger etc etc , bloody awful …..
No not invested here, I did have a dabble a while back but I only have one AIM investment left which I will see through then LGEN, VOD & Lloyds all for dividends.
Good luck Wasa & Rover I think we all need & deserve it
Thanks Laurie hope it comes good for you and you get lucky! My point there was really (sorry I know this is off topic here) in October even through to December/Jan I thought a deal could be done, capex looked doable from the information in the public domain. At that sp it felt like risk/reward was worth it then came the bombshell capex numbers and then I knew all bets were off but the holdings were worth the square root of by then. Then you move through the usual hope/depression/anger phases etc all well mapped out in the psychology textbooks then acceptance and you find peace with luck.
Anyway are you invested here? I am waiting patiently a few years now for developments :)
Great to see your extremely measured posts on HZM, unfortunately my name sake let me down in that one so I fully sympathise and understand your positions, I was invested since 2019 and got sucked into the On Time & On Budget stuff and like a fool averaged down & lost more than you Rover and I sold out 2 days ago. There really should be criminal prosecutions for this sort of behaviour but no doubt nothing will ever happen.
Good luck to you and Wasa and I sincerely hope your next adventure helps you both recover some ground.
LOL Or Termites.
Can’t see the results making much difference unless they’ve found a rare newt or the drill rig in the stream.
Should be out next month fingers crossed.
Anyway I see NJ has parted ways from MB at Paterson Resources. Hopefully to put all that experience and expertise into ACP (cough). GE has now joined MB over there no doubt putting less into ACP.
Well over 5p the preceding month though, doesn’t stop private investors in the know forward selling before announcement, just saying as well. Naive to think it doesn’t go on.
New today. I thought just interesting to look through.
https://blackrockmining.com.au/investor-presentation-sharecafe-webinar/
Last raise was 4.5p (at market -0% discount) with 7p warrants. Seems like a long time ago indeed 3 yrs warrants expire in May but hardly 'mates rates' when most juniors are raising now are 50-60% discount? Just saying....