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What is interesting after watching this:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmWW7tsCuGQ&t=301s
Are we looking at Ariana now being a value junior miner investment or are we still speculative (Salinbas and Cyprus), where is the threshold crossed?
I feel where we are now in and moving forward in part rests on Salinbas and this is where, the speculative play angle, may still be keeping the SP where it is.
Lets hope at the AGM more details on Salinbas become apparent if anyone can ask questions when they are there?
Hi VanVan, considering attending, but I only have a spare half day’s holiday between now & the end of the year. Will have to look at the logistics of getting a train up to the smoke from Bristol so it probably means that the evening presentation is the only option, which is a shame as a one to one would be good. My only concerns with that is the amount of information they can disclose and after outing Venus Minerals as the potential target, I might be as welcome as a pork pie at a Turkish wedding (no offence intended).
Any further drilling results would be good, but it now seems unlikely we will get a resource update by year end. Also, agree that news on Kepez and a sale of Kizilcukur into the JV would be good, as they both have higher grade deposits that will help sustain current output levels and sales, deferring the requirement to increase capacity, bearing in mind that the drilling results and resource upgrade may also enhance what we already know.
I am sure that the BoD have this all in hand and will update the market as and when they are able to.
Cheers, Ash
Hi Ash,
Out of interest are you thinking of attending on 25th, either the presentation or perhaps even better asking for a 1 to 1 session during the day? I suspect that due to the level of detail and understanding you now have, the only way to address such important questions adequately is in a one to one session with Kerim (Kevin?) and Michael. I think the questions otherwise might get glossed over in a Q & A session after a general audience presentation.
Originally I had understood that the new Resource for Kiziltepe was aimed to be completed by year end. Then the updated Reserve would be concluded during H1 - 2020. That would obviously give us the much needed extended life of mine with again my understanding being that they are aiming to get this back up to 10 years from 2020. But they have a lot going on what with the Tavsan work as well which is perhaps equally important and it seems like the Resource/Reserve work has slipped.
I'm also unclear what has happened to Kepez which I thought we were told was being accelerated, but we have heard nothing about this for sometime now, unless I missed it.
As for a second Ball Mill, as far as I know it has only ever been very loosely mentioned as an inevitable at some point in the future. The thinking as far as I know was that the all important Resource & Reserve work at Kiziltepe and perhaps the satellites, had to pre-empt it for obvious reasons.
Hi CK, understood re current capacity and given your estimated numbers on the current stockpile and contained grade plus my numbers on gold produced and in circuit gives a great deal of comfort on sales through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. What we don't know as yet is how production from Derya, Arzu North and Banu will affect average grades and output - the last resource update that gave a clear indication of in pit grades was the one produced in 2010 by Tetra Tech and much has happened since then. The expected resource upgrade is, therefore, key to this assessment.
My question is that, if the processing is at full capacity and grades decline, at what point does a decision need to be made regarding additional capacity, in order to maintain output and sales at expected levels, given that, as I understand things, Turkish mining law requires a further EIA to be submitted before capacity can be increased - see the section on Environmental Impact Assessment in the article below, which states "An EIA must also be carried out every time the capacity or the production of the facility is changed."
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/4-616-5262?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1#co_anchor_a880795
I believe this is only required in respect of the additional capacity, but does it involve further baseline studies, what is the cost of and lead time on commissioning additional capacity i.e. a second ball mill, etc?
Cheers, Ash
More predictive text, I suspect!
Anyway, who is Kevin?
At less than 5 g/tonne good luck to anyone who wants to nick enough ore to make it worth their while, now that is commitment!
I hope a significant amount of (positive) news is primed to emerge over the next 6 business days. Logic would say that such newsflow is likely in order to give ammunition for the presentations in w/c 25th. However Ariana does have a habit of not doing what I am expecting!
Great work cornishknocker. Thanks for sharing. As you say impressive numbers. Quite a bit of latent value sitting there. Hope they have good security!
Have a good time, I just reread your response to Bennie, you mentioned increasing tonnage throughput as the head grade drops. Without some major Capex that isn't an option, at present we are seeing some impressive figures for mill efficiency with availability at 99% and recovery in excess of 95% - in short its pushing as much through as it possibly can.
Hi CK, that looks like a lot of work, so thank you. No time to look at it this evening as we're out to watch the Bluetones play a gig, but I will look at it in more depth tomorrow.
Cheers, Ash
Ok Ash, here goes, until May 2018 the company included the stockpile tonnage and grade, which at that point stood at 62,200 tonnes of ore at a weighted grade of 3.85g/t Au.
In August 2018, there was no figure for the stockpile, however ore production was 70,425 tonnes and the quantity milled was 49,325 Tonnes, which means 21,200 tonnes of ore went to stockpile, making the stockpile 83,400 tonnes. With regards to grade, you can only assume that what was diverted to stockpile was the same as the head grade milled - in this quarter it was 4.99%, which means the stockpile was then 83,400 tonnes @ 4.14g/t containing 345258 grams of gold.
In November 2018 there was 83,229 tonnes of ore mined with 49,272 Tonnes milled at a grade of 4.94g/t. This increased the stockpile by 33,957 Tonnes, leaving it at 117,357 Tonnes@4.37g/t containing 513005 grams of gold.
In February 2019 quarter this year, production was 59,556 Tonnes, with 49,717 tonnes milled @ 5.23g/t. So the stockpile increased to 127,196 Tonnes @ 4.44g/t for 564463 grams of gold.
In May ore production reduced to 24,686 Tonnes with 46,825 tonnes milled at a grade of 4.83g/t, reducing the stockpile by 22,139 Tonnes to 105,057 Tonnes. I'm assuming the ore is coming off the stockpile is effectively coming off the top, so at this point the stockpile grade would be about 4.3g/t.
Finally the August figures were 43,367 Tonnes mined, 48,312 Tonnes Processed @ 4.18g/t reducing the stockpile by 4,945 Tonnes to 100,112 tonnes at about 4.25g/t (425,476 grams of gold) or just over $20 million.
There are a few assumptions there, the biggest one being how the ore is stacked, some mines have a radial stacker with conveyer off the bottom (effectively a first in first out system) some just remove with a front end loader giving a first in last out system. I'm assuming the latter.
Hi Ash, I will sort the figures out for you tomorrow
Sorry, can’t believe the predictive text put Bennie rather than Benjie! Damn iPhones!!
Hi Bennie, now there’s a straightforward question and you’re asking an accountant to give a straightforward answer! We’re not as bad as politicians, mind (there’s the Bristolian coming out!), but there’s a few possible scenarios, given that production costs will relate to volumes of ore processed, grades will decline requiring higher volumes to be processed for the same amount of gold and then other costs of sale will relate directly to the gold output.
I will give it some thought and maybe come up with a few scenarios, assuming certain grades and current production capacity. Leave it with me for now.
I would also appreciate some dialogue with Cornishknocker as you have worked out some values for the current ore stockpile and average grade as it would be really helpful, if I could understand how you have arrived at these - it is the last part of my understanding of mine throughput that, hopefully, will enable me to project output and sales a lot more accurately.
Cheers, Ash
Hi ash - thanks for that as always . Will take a look. What do you think the total cash cost is (ignoring amortisation on investment) once loan is paid off.
Hi Benjie
Per the link below
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Art3fOvTbZE8sgOmTTELQk9jqVqv?e=PCHcPC
It should give you an idea of the other costs - amortisation of mine capital costs, interest, administration costs, plus the cash cost is not an all in cost as there are State Rights of 2.5% plus Net Smelter Royalties and other costs of sale not necessarily included in the cash cost of production.
Cheers, Ash
I don’t know whether anyone can clarify my understanding. in Kerims last you tube video he said that revenue for the first 6m was $20m, cash costs were around $350-$500 per oz (so that to me is around 1/4 of revenue ie $5m). So net cash revenue is $15m shares 50:50 for 6 months is $7.5m. Kerim says Arianas share is $3m so presumably the other $4.5m is interest on loan (or interest and capital? / or looking at it another way amortisation of investment). It sounds like a lot. However once this is paid off then Ariana should be getting $7.5m cash every 6m or $15m a year. Is that about right? Which makes investment case unreal given market cap of £20m