We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well exactly Stranger. The selling has been going on months/ years and would have crossed a declaration by now. The Starvest talk is a sideshow, I agree it probably wont help but its not the explanation. You could equally say that Starvest investors, who compared to their holdings in Greatland have few Ariana winging their way, may choose to top up their holdings with some buys.
I sometimes wonder if the Chinese and Russians had large holdings on AIM dispersed through many holding companies as not to trigger TR1s and they have been slowly unwinding the last few years?
If correct, this childish obsession by our governments for military conflict in Ukraine has been a disaster for our Global Britain standing since we have isolated ourselves from BRICS and all those wishing to be involved with them.
There is just not enough liquidity in the West to prop up AIM, we only have ourselves to blame!
What I cannot understand is, if there is only one big seller, why has the selling never triggered the production of a TR1 when the shareholding passes the reporting percentages.
If this happened then at least we would know who the seller is.
There has been one or more persistent sellers for many months now, someone who apparently wants out of all shares whatever the cost.
No amount of good news could stand up to this. Share buy backs might but then people would complain about not having a better use......
I understand where you're coming from, John, but what I don't get is why the market infers that that RNS is bad news? What's the alternative....the company doesn't say what the drilling results are or the company produces drilling results saying 'we've found nothing...what a shame'. In either of these latter scenarios I could understand the company and sp getting battered.
What I don't understand is great drilling results leading to an sp drop. I'm not daft enough, though, to suggest all's well as a result of this (and other) RNS(s). It's fine saying 'we've found something'.....it's a different matter then getting it out of the ground profitably.
I guess what I'm saying is I don't understand the sp drop just now but equally I wouldn't expect an uplift n the sp until there's more meat on the bones about what precisely there is here (and in other projects) and how it's going to be profitably mined (with timescales that we can trust).
I would have expected the market reaction to that RNS to be non-plussed with little, if any, movement either way
1.62p/1.67p. I can't be the only one who wants out of this now?
Yes I'll never understand this shoite. They only tell you what they have to in the RNS. Tgecrst gets held back ...
And another damp squib
You appear to have struck some gold and a heap of silver in Turkey if I read the RNS correctly? Impressive silver grades!
I agree about the likelihood of takeover being next to zero. Whether some of us like the management or not, the various early stage projects are probably safer in KS's hands than anyone else, and I am not sure what value there would be to a third party. Would the terms of the JV, of which AAU is sadly now only a junior partner, allow a takeover? Not sure how that works.
I'm guessing 60k remaining ounces from Kiziltepe, hopefully 300k from Tavsan (I hope that is after the recovery rate is applied) so at a guess of $1000 net per ounce we have 10 year cashflow totalling £(0.235 x 360,000 x $1,000)/1.25 = c.£68m.
Heaven forbid Stranger. We agree! Of course it also means that because of the appalling JV terms we kissed goodbye to .265/.235 x £68m = £75m (plus the amount given up in the past 4 years) for £25m (less lots of legal expenses). But you know I never complain,,,,,
The last interims gave the value of the following assets:
Investments in Associates (Zenit, Venus, etc.) £13.6 million
Financial assets (Asgard) £0.8 million
Current assets £7 million
So the total of these is £21.4 million
Knock of £2 million (estimated) for expenditure since interims and we get the value of the main assets as £19.4 million. (The other assets are about £0.7 million more than all the liabilities and have been ignored)
This is more than the market capitalisation of £18.6 million therefore the value of all the future income streams from Kiziltepe, Tavsan, Salinbas, Venus, etc. is currently £-0.8 million which is obviously rubbish as the total profit over the next ten years that will be attributable to Ariana from Kiziltepe and Tavsan alone should be in the region of $360 million * 0.235 or $84.6 million (£67 million).
When the good news on the reserves, Tavsan and hopefully a dividend policy comes in then the share price will have a large positive correction.
It is counterproductive to talk of a buy out as shareholders would not receive anywhere near the true value of Ariana.
'Paul.....have a look at the EV used sale prices....scary stuff....harder to lose money on AIM...lol'
Yes we are not quite there yet for EV ownership. I would say 2050/60 might be the mass take off but for now it's out of most peoples financial means or imagination.
Ah johnpwh, the old G10 CII taxation and trusts perhaps? I nearly topped up here recently .....but still too opaque!
Perhaps on the next gold rally?
Paul.....have a look at the EV used sale prices....scary stuff....harder to lose money on AIM...lol
Keep off the graphene oxide if you can....lol
GLA
Commiserations Claret (you too LoB) on the result, only 1 out.
Crikey I like driving old cars without a synchromesh gear box, especially on winding and challenging roads where everything has to be balanced out.
I’m going to resist an EV car for as long as I can, just too boring.
Might consider it when I’m in my 80s and just want to run the shops but for now, nooo.
I will be honest I drive a MG5 and would not go back to and ICE car. I love the fact that I get home and flip the front port plug her in and next morning there you are 240 miles range and very cheap motoring. I really love the fact that when I am at the lights and some idiot decides that they can burn of an ordinary looking estate car they find that they cannot.
If you want to watch the considered review of an auto mechanic who runs a fleet of MG5s to provide a mobile repair/servicing service on one of his MG5s that has done over 100,000 miles then this is the video to watch, listen to what he says at the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Kj7fJ5JI-yI
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj7fJ5JI-yI
Remember the UN and WEF will mandate essential vehicles and travel only, this is in their documents so not a conspiracy theory.
You will only be allowed to travel around in your 15 minute zone in a car you do not own but rent like an Uber which drives itself. You can leave your zone so many times per year and pay/exchange a carbon token fee if you exceed your limited amount.
Car ownership in the under 30 age range in the Western world is declining and many are not bothering to learn how to drive. I’m not too sure of these figures in the developing and third world though.
As you state a breaking point as to come somewhere, there have been demonstrations in Oxford and Orpington.
I can see EV cars taking off for another 50 years to be honest.
"EV sales will start to grow again in 2025 as manufacturers have to sell a greater percentage of zero emission vehicles in the UK and EU or face government tariffs."
The car builders may have to produce more EV cars, but the government cannot force people to buy them. The high price, range anxiety, flammability risk and high insurance costs are deterring most private buyers. Present sales are buffeted by sales to company car fleets, rather than individual buyers.
If manufacturers are fined for not selling enough EV cars they will no doubt up the price of ICE cars to cover any losses. The government will I expect be forced to back down, or set back this legislation after complaints by unhappy ICE buyers.
Any claimed green credentials are likely to be blown away when the battery needs replacing. The excessive cost of a new battery will effectively render any car over 5 years old a write off. How that will help the planet is beyond me.
Hi Stranger
Think the list of potential funding requirements for various projects you outline, faced with a rapidly dwindling and finite contribution from Kiziltepe, means that pressure on the net income from Tavsan will allow only a far more modest dividend than some of the more upbeat shareholders expect. Its either that or a move away from the debt free position we tend to take comfort in. I prefer the smaller dividends due to the cost of debt to small companies and the catastrophic impact on their shareholders when debts reach maturity and cannot be repaid. How many times do you see that on AIM?
The only bit of your piece I would like to clarify is that Zenit will be the one raising capital to develop Salinbas (if that happens). That is obviously true, but for those reading this board without the knowledge some of us old timers have, AAU is a 23.5% shareholder in the JV so that AAU will end up with 23.5% of that investment demand whether it comes from withheld dividends to the JV partners, an investment call into the JV or a combination. it certainly isn't a free carry!
Thanks Stranger for 3 excellent posts, I learned stuff too.
Expected major RNS announcements in 2024.
Kiziltepe – Announcements expected on the ongoing prospecting with updated reserves for Kiziltepe and the satellite pits. This should give an indication of how long the Kiziltepe plant will keep on producing gold.
Tavsan – Announcements as to the completion and commissioning of the plant. This will give an indication of the amount of production and profitability of the plant.
Salinbas, Ardala and Hizarliyayla - Announcements expected on the ongoing prospecting with updated reserves for Salinbas. We should get news as to when a feasibility study will be produced for building a mine at Salinbas.
Rockover – Announcements of further prospecting results and firming up of reserves plus further investment and plans to build a mine.
Dividend – Announcement as to a dividend policy and the payment of regular dividends. This is the one we are all waiting for and the one that will lift the share price the most.
Western Tethyan Resources (75%) – separate legal entity
WTR is prospecting in Eastern Europe, notably in Kosovo. There are two prospects Slivova and Hertica.
Slivova has a positive PEA of $100 million but needs $33.4 million of investment to bring into production. Newmont has put an initial $2.5 million into WTR. At the successful identification of project Newmont will put another £1 million to gain 60% of the project and a further $15 million to produce a feasibility report and have 75% of the project. If the project then goes ahead the project development funding will be pro rata but if one party then drops out before the development stage it will only get 2% NSR.
With Silvova having a positive PEA and a modest amount of investment a return from Western Tethyan Resources could be seen in the medium to long term depending on whether Newmont wish to progress with its development.
Hertica still being prospected and we are waiting for drilling results.
The risk for Ariana from WTR is low but if a project is developed a significant amount of capital will need to be found. However, if Newmont are finding 75% of the capital it should be relatively easy for WTR to raise debt funding for its share. KS has said that the Kiziltepe plant may be used in Kosovo which might then involve Zenit and reduce the risk to Ariana.
Asgard (100%) - separate legal entity
Asgard has investment in five prospecting companies;
Panther 3.1% - Australia
Annamite Resources 6.3% - Laos (Rio Tinto is investing $810,000)
Pallas Resources 6.0% - Kazakhstan
Altai Resources 8.4% - Kazakhstan
Rockover 2.1% - Zimbabwe
The feasibilty-stage Dokwe Project was discovered under Kalahari cover containing 1.3Moz gold (JORC Measured, Indicated and Inferred)*, comprising Dokwe North and Dokwe Central. A positive pre-feasibility study has been completed which provides for gold production of 60,000 ounces per annum over 12 years from a single open pit,
Asgard is committed to invest up to £260,000 into each of the companies in terms of capital and time making a total investment of £1,300,000. From the recent RNS it appears that Ariana is preparing to invest more funds in Rockover and is in talks to involve Zenit or one or other of the JV partners in the development of the Dokwe project.
The risk from Asgard is relatively low and will depend on Ariana’s exposure to Rockover. The potential return is only there in the long term.
Zenit (23.5%) – separate legal entity
Kiziltepe will be producing gold for next 3-4 years probably generating another $60 million profit.
Tavsan will be in production this year producing for at least 10 years Probably generating $300 million profit over the next ten years. The mine build is being funded from the Kiziltepe cash flow reducing the amount of debt that will need to be raised and saving money albeit reducing profit in Zenit and the ability to pay dividends to the JV partners. Probably generating $300 million profit.
Salinbas is not yet at feasibility stage, and we are waiting for more drilling results and a reserve update. Salinbas will need considerable capital investment to bring into production, but this will be raised by the JV not Ariana.
Zenit has a long-term future and will continue to generate good profit and cash flows. The big question is how much profit will be distributed to the JV partners as dividend payments (cash). If the profit is not distributed to the JV partners but stays in Zenit then the asset value of Zenit will increase and the carrying value in Ariana’s balance sheet will also increase but Ariana will not have the cash to pay its own shareholders a dividend.
Venus Minerals (58%) – separate legal entity
Waiting for the IPO market and copper market to improve, this will depend on the decrease in interest rates, growth in world markets and the market for EVs.
Interest rates should start to fall by the middle of 2024 but economic growth will not really start in Europe for at least twelve months until the economic shock of high energy prices works out of the economy.
EV sales will start to grow again in 2025 as manufacturers have to sell a greater percentage of zero emission vehicles in the UK and EU or face government tariffs. The US has voluntary ZEV percentages which should result in the growth of EV sales, but this could be derailed by a Trump administration. Consumers have been put off EVs by very negative coverage in the right-wing press. Consumers are waiting for the introduction of solid-state batteries which promise lower cost, greater perceived safety and greater range. It is a fact that, from available information on worldwide EVs, EVs are much less likely to catch fire than IC engine cars, but when they do it can be spectacular. China will continue to grow its production of EVs as it sells more into the world markets.
The risk is that, even though Venus is a separate legal entity, Ariana will have to invest more cash into Venus for the IPO and to get Venus into production.
So in Cyprus we will be obliged with EU ESG commitments, am I right to presume there are not the same expectations in Zimbabwe?
If true, I hope we fk off the Cypriot project and buy more into this one.
Look back at the RNS's over the last three months, I'd hardly call that remaining quiet.
We know what the strategy of the company is, what they are doing and where they are active.
I wonder why we never looked at Uranium to be honest but gold, silver and copper is our focus.
Thanks to Xow98 on the other BB
hTTps://investingstrategy.co.uk/stock-tips/why-do-some-ceos-remain-silent-as-the-share-price-tanks/