Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Deramping, even.
Washers and Quick Study
If you grasp investment information as accurately as you understood my post, I suspect you are in trouble.
Read my post again if you wish to see why. It is correctly punctuated so should not have been misunderstood.
As for decamping: don’t be a ********!
JODO Now that was a beginners deramp.
Pathetic
GLA
JODO
You say you’ve gambled on here from 11p down.
Further on you say you have earned about the price decline from 20p down...
Why, if you warned about a decline all the way down from 20p, did you invest at 11p?
If you’ve kept buying to get your average down to 11p, why? If as you say you’ve warned this decline would happen then that’s throwing good money after bad
I’m happy to keep the faith; I don’t have much alternative since I’ve gambled here from 11p down.
It’s still hard to refute this from oilman Jim:
Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) reported that it has entered into a rig option agreement, but the rig might not be available until 30 March 2020. Unfortunately, November turned out to be the date for a rig agreement, not the rig arriving as investors had hoped. The problem for them though is that paying for the drill depends on Riverfort selling shares at a higher price than now and how does that situation come about? Slippery language isn't working anymore for these Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) reported that it has entered into a rig option agreement, but the rig might not be available until 30 March 2020. Unfortunately, November turned out to be the date for a rig agreement, not the rig arriving as investors had hoped. The problem for them though is that paying for the drill depends on Riverfort selling shares at a higher price than now and how does that situation come about? Slippery language isn't working anymore for these companies and I see only one way for the Anglo African share price now, which is to decline further. I’ve been warning about this one all the way down from just under 20p and the shares hit an all time low of 2.4p on Fridacompanies and I see only one way for the Anglo African share price now, which is to decline further. I’ve been warning about this one all the way down from just under 20p and the shares hit an all time low of 2.4p on Frida
Skittish you say and I quote “And we're valued at £9.5M.”
Is that a teency weency bit of a ramp....not like you at all.
Great research.
Just to follow up earlier - this is what the half year report stated -
"Negotiations are ongoing with two potential rig providers, both of which have rig units in the Republic of the Congo. The Company is also scouting for other units with minimal mobilisation charges as a fallback option."
I'm thinking SFP #1 is the fallback option with the minimal mobilisation charges - why would they be minimal (normally I would think $1M+) - because SFP will not charge for mobilisation as part of the payment for the money we are owed by SNPC.
The only catch is we have to wait between 3 - 6 months.
The SFP rig is important for another reason - it will be crewed largely by Congolese - SNPC is the means by which the Congolese obtain experience and expertise for their domestic workforce.
So if TLP-103C-ST actually does come up with the first land based Djeno producer it will be a big feather in their cap - and for the domestic workforce and for SFP and SNPC.
Politically that would be very important.
And on the Mengo/Djeno decision it wasn't all our decision to take - we only own 56%, the rest is SNPC, and they don't have a share price to worry about.
And as for the drilling pad that has appeared recently at Pointe Indienne, 7km from us, this will be the first drill on that field for at least 10 years, maybe even 20 years. PI is operated by African Oil and Gas Corporation which is owned by ex SNPC head Denis Gokana, also a friend of President Sassou-Nguessu.
Maybe there is a bit of race on to get down to the land based Djeno, as whoever gets there first would go down in Congolese oil drilling history as having the first big land based producer. No one ever remembers who was second.
And we still don't know where New Age will be drilling, but there is a good chance it will be within a few km of Tilapia and they too will be going for the Djeno.
And we're valued at £9.5M.
Skittish, thanks nice rig but alas no lights.
I think the Mengo/Djeno argument was done to death a while ago. I was surprised also when they went for the Djeno over the Mengo - whilst the Djeno is (probably) the better long term project cash flow is king and we are suffering greatly for that now.
Maybe the Mengo wasn't actually that easy to develop or the difficulties with the leaking plug made it more difficult (or more risky) with a less powerful work over rig.
As to the share price it is clearly crippled. I got the impression there was a big seller on Friday (apart for the funds) selling 1M+, clearly not enamoured by the prospects of a wait of 3 to 6 months - and probably betting that on past performance the wait would be 6 months.
But the 12/11/19 RNS actually states -
"The SFP #1 Rig (the "Rig") is the subject of contractual commitments to a super-major which will expire on 30 December 2019. SFP may extend such contractual commitments until (but not beyond) 30 March 2020 and will notify AAOG on or before 30 November 2019 as to whether its contractual commitments have been extended."
So the super major commitment is only to to 30/12/19 - and it is SPF that can extend to 30/3/20 - not the super major. I would have thought it was the other way round - but that isn't what the RNS says.
Where is the rig now? Well the only SM's in Congo are Total and Eni. Total is offshore, and the only major Eni field is M'Boundi around 20km east of Tilapia. So my bet is it is there - but spotting it may be difficult - and Plantlabs is more restrictive these days.
And why use this SPF #1 rig? Why not go for a rig that is available earlier? Well SNPC, whose subsidiary SPF is, still owe us £4.7M or around $5.6M. It would seem unreasonable that we would have to pay full whack for the rig ultimately owned by SNPC when they owe us $ millions. So maybe there is is quid pro quo going on here. This is the SPF home page -
http://www.snpc-group.com/fr/filiales#Sfp
7000 metres! Surely not downwards - the Djeno is only 2500 metres, and Vandji just below 3000 metres. But if you wanted to do a bit of directional drilling under the sea for TLP-104 etc (or indeed elsewhere) then 7000 metres may come in useful.
And if you go up a page on the above link you come to SONAREP, another SNPC subsidiary. Several mentions on there of Tilapia, which is where SONAREP first started. Which brings us back to the Gerard Bougoin/SNPC/President Sassou-Nguesso relationship which goes back years. Tilapia is important to SNPC as it has a real stake and say there (44%), as opposed the the other fields where it just has a carried 15% - aside from the struggling MKB field, where it is operator. So Tilapia was and remains a bit of a flagship for them.
continued../
continued.../
And slide 26 of this presentation shows "our" rig SNP #1
https://yearofenergy2019.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Focus-SNPC_English-version_Final.pdf
Slide 13 shows the eastern limit of Tilapia indicating TLP-103ST will be as close to our boundary as you can get, and as close to the fault line as we can get.
https://ibb.co/GpwXG4b
So SNPC and SPF and SONAREP all have a stake in Tilapia being a success. And no coincidence that we are using their rig - their only rig.
"The Rig is the most suitable rig available in country" - yes - but suitable for what reasons?
Will we be drilling in Q1 or Q2? I don't know. But it is very much in the interests of SNPC to make a success of this and they are now very much locked into the success of TLP-103ST.
Are they paying for the rig, or defraying fees? Again I don't know - but interesting that we should have waited so long for their rig. And the MR 8000 is the largest rig that can be transported on land.
The present day sellers obviously aren't prepared to wait 3-6 months, and the share price is excruciating, but if you are prepared to take a slightly longer view then this can still meet the expectations of earlier this year.
I'm positioning accordingly - 3 months/6 months it doesn't really matter in the great scheme of things.
And other things can happen in the interim.
Same here Sardy. Said that from the moment this discussion of Mengo vs Djeno started. Prudent management would go for the security of this Mengo. I'm afraid greed went for the Djeno. Calcs by Tiburn are great and make sense if you are sure you have all under control, but the key is a sustainable company and that means securing early cashflow which meant Mengo at that time.
Nothing we can do about it now I think? It's too late to go for the mengo now. Or is it? Not much to do to get the Mengo oil flowing, no waiting for a rig that a super major now has (will they release or will they be devious and sit on it just to spite AAOG... Can make a business case out of that!). Bring in 500 bbl oil per day at USD 60pbl is usd15,000 per day or usd450,000 per month until end of license... It secures the company AND most definitely will get the SP going up.
In my view THAT is good management and the most important duty of a director, do what is good for the company.
But I doubt it will happen like that!
MS
He got ousted from the AEX board last week for being a turnip.....how come we always get other boards rejects?
rojo stop bashing the bishop, get out more
It wasn't long ago that you all (Angela excluded) thought that the bishop was the bees knees.
Look again! How the mighty have fallen!
For once barking I am in 100% agreement with you and stated the same when this whole djeno versus Mengo started I’ve seen this so many times when companies ignore the bread and butter and go for the jam
Indeed it is an unusually big drop for no reason, unless the reason shows up on Monday...
Closing price today has obviously stunned everyone to silence.
Tiburn I 100% agree that after a couple of years pumping out of the Djeno (provided all goes to plan) it will provide much more revenue. The point I was making that if they had opted for the R Zones and Mengo there would have been enough revenue by now to fund a new well 104. Instead we have had to raise funds again that are a constant drag on the SP.
Theres no question the original plan would have kept the SP in double digits, have less shares in issue and probably a much less confrontational BB.
I agree, it’s been done to death....from 8p down to 2.5p. Needs a drill rig for Q1 2020 end of.
Particularly by non-shareholders!
Totally agree Tiburn - the difference in long term returns/Shareholder Value is like Night and day.
It is where we are at and there's no time machine to take us all back- it would be fair to say this one has been done to death.
Barking
Good luck in your other shares - the comment wasn't directed at anyone else holding those shares or their prospects, more a comment on portfolio.
However, It is absolutely the right business decision to go for Djeno, despite massive delay and SP being poor pre production :
WELL TLP-103C MENGO/R2 APPROACH
• Assume that the Mengo stimulation was done and production had started in May 2019 as was the original plan of action
• Prod for period May 2019 to Oct 2020 at sustained peak 1500 bopd = 750k barrels
• Year 2 - Oct 2020 to Oct 2021 - Mengo well stabilises down at 300bopd = 100k barrels in period
• Total Mengo production in assessment period is 850k barrels, at $65 a barrel, after tax, PSA at 56% to AAOG = $20 million revenue earned by Oct 2021 by the Mengo approach
WELL TLP-103C-ST DJENO APPROACH
• If prod increased to 5,000 bopd as per adjacent Djeno wells by assumed end Feb 2020, potential production until Oct 2021 is approx 3m barrels, at $65 a barrel, after tax, PSA at 56% to AAOG = $73 million revenue earned by Oct 2021 by Djeno approach
Sustained reservoir aswell, constant 5000 bopd as gas charged, no lifting.
Over the course of a licence, that's a huge differential in revenue, based on a strategic decision taken now, we have surely taken the short term hit since April 2019 - Q1/Q2 2020 should be the start of the longer term gain and roll out of the strategy to grow this company into a substantial concern, that Term RBL agreement is not for Mengo, the offtaker DD signing this intention is indicative.
I have some sympathy with your assertions below BC but with one caveat - that this is easy to say with hindsight. If the drill that they used for 103 had not been proven to be totally under-gunned then the drilling deeper into the Djeno would have appeared a sensible option at the time. Whose fault was it that this severe deficiency was not recognised?? Well I will leave that open - I have my view and others will undoubtedly have their own.
I agree with much that you say Crusty and the Sp is undoubtedly a concern - I wouldn't worry about the strenghth of Angenda's position- it doesn't even register with me as has been found out for multiple yarns - the imaginary SMP rig ruse for example, was a classic.
Too many non-holders wetting the bed here -well, if they want to sleep in it, just leave them to it.
Pete
I don't like the SP down here at all, mistakes have been made, but news is soon - any day upto Nov 30th latest to be exact on drill and surely any day on PSA, if final talks were indeed held in Oct.
If SFP contract runs only to end Dec, then we drill in 6 or 7 weeks - good enough for most surely.
If April drill then its horrible, but what can you do?
we are where we are, each to their own on their position, but I will remain.