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Have been following events at AML recently. SP on 14/05/20 is 30.70p. CEO replaced very soon thereafter. New man appointed. Previously Director of Performance at MB. SP on 05/06/20 is 72p. Increase of 134%. A man with credibility at the helm, and the picture changes, almost in the blink of an eye.
As you have spotted there are opportunities elsewhere to make your money work for you even some FTSE100 companies have offered great returns post the lows of Covid-19 with ultimately very little risk.
AML has been dealt a great hand of cards, a billionaire as Chairman who has topped up the kitty, the appointment of Moers and I believe Toto Wolff giving his support to the appointment and indeed taking a stake, its all positives for the market.
Could we entice a similar industry big hitter, indeed would we afford one and the facts in terms of assets and finances would ultimately remain the same, yes a change at the top might produce a flurry but even a 134% increase on 0.3p will only ensure that those standing at below 0.7p will see a profit :-)
Hi SeeVee,
I see what you are saying about the change of the CEO but I think there are other things involved at AML other than just the change at the top. There is a strong talk of a bid for them. Also, just before Covid-19 the price was about £2.70 and it was about £6.00 at the beginning of the year. Don’t forget Covid-19 has hammered the SP. I’m a bit surprised the SP hasn’t gone higher considering who the new CEO is. AML has been a pig of a share since it went on the stock market a couple of years ago. Since AML was floated, in 2 or so years, they have performed worse than 88E, the SP has a 98% collapse since it floated on the stock market less than two years ago.
IMO - wrong time for a change, critical time for 88E, let’s see what June brings in terms of results and forward plan.
If disappointment all round, then it would be the right time for this kind of discussion.
Do you think the spread of between 11-15% of last week is putting off buyers? MM’s hold it like this until they are ready to move on results. Does anyone see further downside to the SP?
09:24 Agree, bit like those who quote our fall from our market high as if we are unique, plenty of similar or even worse cases in AIM, need to look at full context and not just the headlines, which often give a false impression.
Shaa
In my opinion, we are experiencing disappointment now & has been continued disappointment, a forward plan will all be regards farm outs, unless we’re in for a surprise the farm out process of any prospect will take us into next year (IMO based on the length of time it took to get PMO) so what will we be doing this winter to enhance our acreage? Seismic? Funding for this...
All (or a good portion) recognise or realise we need income as a business to succeed, income to fund exploration, even the takeover that we’re experiencing. Do you not think an Oil guy coming in with experience would have this in mind, they’d go for the easiest option to get us up and running, yep Alpha prospect, 3 things immediately going for it - TAP’s, Franklin’s Buff pad & Daltons Highway next to it possibly on top of it, does our MD even consider or mention it? Not that I read or hear, doesn’t appear to be on the radar other than a prospect.
A good example of an Oil guy coming into a company that was pretty directionless & had experienced poor results was LGO, now CERP, Leo Koot came in, made immediate changes, set a 5yr target to be a £500 million pound company (3yrs in) & he’ll make sure it is (IMO), has anybody heard of a market cap target from DW within a timeframe? Another example of Koots knowledge/experience was on their recent drill, the drill ran into trouble, he’s openly said he made changes as the drill happened from his ability to interpret seismic data & his experience from drilling to complete the drill successfully & hit target as planned, would the last two drills we’ve been part of had the same disappointing outcomes if we’d had an Oil guy at the helm?
I hear what you’re saying about timing, but change is needed!
Can’t argue with your post, the one thing DW has been consistent with time and time again is disappoint - the facts speak for themselves.
We are all at different stages in our minds regarding DW and I feel he is in the last chance saloon but I do not wear blinkers and accept your view of point and it’s validity.
June is a big month for 88E and an even bigger one for DW.
Shaa
I appreciate your comments & contribution to this board, always a balanced view!
You say he’s in the last chance saloon, with investors almost certainly, but above him.. Micheal Evans Non Exec Chairman, I want to know what he thinks? He must know shareholders aren’t happy after the last two years votes at the agm regards re-electing the BOD.. but then he’s also brought shares in XCD prior to the takeover bid, so he must be satisfied or are they both (DW & ME) feathering their nest so to speak. I hope for a positive change of tact for all of us!
Amen to that flex, we need good solid results this month and that figure at the top right pushing northwards.
People keep bringing up Pantheon Resources (PANR)
Let us compare. I cannot do 88E with XCD at this moment.
But comparison is interesting as at today:
Successful oil flow test? 88E – none; Panr – 1 (one) last year
Founded as Alaska focused exploration: 88E – 2014; Panr – 2006
Years in Alaska exploration: 88E – 6; Panr – 14
Both on AIM
Current MC: 88E - £19.5m; Panr - £85.7m
Operating area size: 88E – 385,000 acres; 200,000 acres
Shareholder money spent: 88E – £ 79m; Panr – £ 158m
Expenditure over MC: 88E -
Peak SP: 88E – 4.10p; Panr – 180p
Current SP: 88E – 0.28p; Panr – 17.1p
Times drop, high to low: 88E – 4.00/0.25=16x; Panr – 180/8.9=20x
Debt: 88E – none; Panr – none
Cash in bank: 88E – plenty; Panr – 1 year overhead cost.
Number permanent staff: under 10, both
Use of contract staff, special expertise outfits, etc - both
Out of season hibernation cost: 88E – high; Panr – very low
Distance, centre of site to highway/pipeline: 88E – 35miles; Panr – 0 miles
Experience of team in oil bus: 88E – 30 yrs?; Panr – 300 yrs
Without PB, our true oil exploration experience dropped to nil. Rebuilding?? Contractors??
Panr have a very experienced and diversified team.
In 6 years, 88E has not quite done a commercial Oil Flow.
It took Panr 14 years to achieve first Oil Flow (100 bopd)
Oil resource type: 88E - conv and unconv; Panr – conv only
Panr and 88E are fully shareholder funded.
88E have high drill cost with average 35 mile ice road and deep resources.
Panr have a low Drill cost with shallow oil resources and right on the Dalton Highway
Likely average cost of oil recovery: 88E – US$ 30+; Panr – US$ 25
88E SP is hammered by past mistakes and misfortunes.
(share dilution, Yukon, Western Blocks, too much land, expensive staff).
Panr SP also hammered by 13 years to first Oil Flow. But Oil Flow brings confidence.
88E can only regain shareholder confidence and trust with a successful Oil Flow Test.
Once successful, our MC should be worth as much, or more than Panr
If MC increases to equality – 4.4 times puts 88E SP at 1.23p
Panr’s value is expertise, experience, caution.
Panr have a declared strategy to be long term oil producer.
Panr’s weaknesses – no FO success, aging ‘team’.
88E have no declared strategy, other than get some successful oil flows…
88E’s value is massive ‘oil soaked land resource’, ummm.
88E has proven Field Drilling experience, in sub-zero Arctic conditions.
88E has proven FO negotiation experience.
And (IMHO), 88E is extremely close to Oil Flow success.
Continued, Phrontist
Continued, 88E and Panr comparison:
Reliant on future shareholder CR for time being: Both – YES.
First oil production (first revenue): Both 2021 if all goes very well….
We both have excellent Seismic data IP integrated with regional information IP.
We both have Data Room facility / capability for own use and client use.
We are both in the most stable and safe place in the world.
Panr have the edge on nearness to pipeline and highway for lower cost everything.
88E has the edge of much larger long term resources.
My conclusion:
Once we get a strike, 88E new MC (£86m to over £100m) will equal or exceed Panr MC.
Then merge with Panr, to become a powerful Alaska exploration / production business.
Create new Share Issue, list on NASDAQ, dream on, ha ha.
FO’s galore, significant share in production revenue, ongoing Drill’s for decades.
Phrontist
An uncompleted line, now complete:
Expenditure over MC: 88E – 79.0-19.5=£59.5; Panr – 158.00-85.7=£72.30
Phrontist
How about some millions:
Expenditure over MC: 88E – 79.0m-19.5m = £59.5m; Panr – 158.00m - 85.7m = £72.30m
No one has accused PANR of incompetance, etc.
But they have 8 years longer than us, and only recently struck oil.
They have spent £13m more than us as at today.
88E have a major catch-up benefit of 'free' Charlie-1 saving US$23m
We have not seen the full benefit ofCharlie-1 yet with results.
Hopefully followed by enthusiastic FO for next well. or wells.
Phrontist
Phrontist, your posts just highlight you have misconceptions about both companies.
And if you think nobody has accused PANR of incompetence you are grossly mistaken.
Rabito,
My point is, there are similarities between PANR and 88E.
And differences.
Why do they have such a high MC and we have such a low MC?
If we know the answer, then we know how and when our SP will rise.
But my comparison is to stimulate further discussion.
What are my misconceptions?
OK, I take your point, PANR have had accusations thrown at them.
After all, 180p down to 17p is quite something.
But their SP profile is quite similar to ours over last 5 years.
I wrote this following listening to their Webinar from February.
They are obviously concerned about the future, being CR difficulties, low oil price (then), coronavirus, etc
Phrontist
PANR haven't spent $158m on North slope. They've spent however much they paid in cash or shares to buy the leases /info from great bear + whatever they've spent since.
I have followed GBP for almost six years, the changes of strategy, the changes in management, the changes in owners, the bullish announcements and the massive lulls when all activity stopped etc
Ultimately as a junior explorer they depended on either going cap in hand to shareholders, borrowing from the bank against security of SOA or trying to get a FO partner.
None of it pleases everybody all of the time and some of it is not always easily available, GBP were heavily exposed to SOA export credits scheme and ultimately PANR took control.
Since we drilled Icewine#1 the only well activity on GBP's leases was the successful flow test ~12m ago of Alkaid-1, I have never been able to fathom how the old GBP even if they had no money had not convinced/found a partner who would have been willing to complete that, after all they had three winters of opportunity, although not part of Otto's original deal you would have thought it would have worth a shot to someone even the drilling + analysis companies.
Life is strange :-)
Jof,
I get from Feb 2020 Panr Webinar, he said they have invested US$200m,
I assume it is from CR's.
Phron
Brom, how is Panr SP and MC so high compared to 88E?
Surely the difference is not 1 Oil Flow Test at 100 bopb for them?
Some people suggest that multiple laterals can make that a 2,000 bopd production well.
But surely, if that were the case, why no queue of FO Applicants?
Phron
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x8g94ow
The deal was valued at 49m. Of which 2.5m cash and rest in A and B shares. It does confirm that over the years GBP had spent over $200m on the acreage.
Jof, all I can say is, look at the PANR Feb Webinar.
At the end, after well over an hour, they have some sound-bite panels on the screen. One of them states that they have invested $200m in Alaska operations.
That is all I know.
Phrontist
Jof, I have looked at the document, it is pretty long.
PANR bought out Great Bear.
P
Phron 15.33, that is the case and has independently verified by a CPR. Likewise 100bopd is what 88e were looking for from the Charlie 1 flow test. I would point out some people were expecting a 100bopd flow test to take 88e far higher than PANR's market cap, despite PANR having higher NPVs and owning 100% of the ~1Billion OiP (~76.5 Contingent Resource) compared to 88e's 30% of 1Billion OIP at the time.
I believe the point JofHoggit was trying to make is that PANR only entered Alaska at the end of 2019 through acquiring Great Bear who themselves entered in 2010 (not 2006 as you stated). Indeed $200M has been spent however this was not done from cash raises, Great Bear were not listed. A large part of this money (~$80M) was spent on 3D seismic covering PANR's whole acreage, bar the Western leases 88e do not have this so saying they are similar is incorrect.
You will note the very slide you highlighted mentions the potential unconventional resources on their acreage, these were also highlighted by DW in Novembers meeting with shareholders so that's another point which you may have got wrong. Indeed Pantheon's focus in now on conventional as they don't think the unconventional is economical without conventional infrastructure and a higher oil price (this is also noted on the same slide as the $200M figure you quoted).
In regards to cash both companies are in very similar position with about a year of overheads in cash., yet you seem to highlight 88e as having 'plenty'.
We are now both looking for farm outs but I would suggest the figures targeted by the respective BOD's are very different. Part of this (in addition to the size,scale and reduced risk of PANR's resources) is that the Greater Alkaid project can indeed go straight into production but I don't believe 88e's can. Whilst you regularly talk about four potential FO's you never mention the financial aspects of these. I would recommend you look into this and consider the resource potential and COS in comparison to the Premier deal, rather than assuming more data means more value.
Apologies to others for this post but I thought best to highlight information which is incorrect in my opinion.
Rabito, quality post. Just re-post this at the start of every day, then no-one else will need to post pointless inaccurate rubbish that comes from the aftermath of Wall's latest failure.