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I concur, which is why I've bought GDXJ.
Very happy with exposure to HUM and SHG, but wanted some diversified exposure.
Sold all my QQQ positions! Eek
Equanimity,
totally agree with regard other gold miners, and for us just a matter of time......what gold miners over in TSX land are you looking at btw ?
“Balance sheet deleveraging with net debt of US$4.9 million ("m"), down 44% from US$8.7 m in Q2;”
So they paid off $3.8m last quarter leaving $4.9m net debt. What makes people so confident we’ll be debt free by year end ? Saying they paid off debt doesn’t really answer it!
For example, once the gold mining sector valuations normalise, every gold ounce in the ground would cost 100$ or higher. Only WK, with 3M Oz reserves, would cost +300M, i.e. double of current Shanta capitalization. +140k Oz production with Singida and NL reserves would come for free,
Current undervaluation is not only about Shanta. I am looking at many gold/silver producers in the US, Canada, Australia, and it is amazing how undervalued they are now. Gold mining sector has probably never been cheaper relative to the value. This is a typical vicious cycle:
Value Lower --> Portfolio Managers are fired and liquidated, retail investors run --> Prices lower.
The tide is turning now. Once gold starts testing the 2100 - 2500 range, I expect a lot of madness on the contrary. PMs will get hired back, new allocations will be given, the most undervalued stocks, like Shanta, will quickly re-rate. We don't even need any news stream from Shanta for re-rate. Anything on top, like drilling results, Singida expansion, WK progress, etc., coinciding with the upward gold move, will produce an overshoot in value.
For a start they had debt repayment and interest last quarter which will be gone Q4
So no more interest or debt
They had capex of 3 million on the new mine on a power upgrade so prob had bits there still to sort.
This quarter they will have the dividend payment of 2 million I guess
From Q1 they should be plus 10 million at this gold price cash surplus no debt at the worst case.
This would be a lot more but they are drilling on three fronts and doing a feasibility on Kenya and associated work streams.
I guess when that’s out the way they add far more in cash per quarter.
Other posters may have a better idea.
What will Shanta look like after 12 months with 40-50 million on the balance sheet ? That should go right onto the market cap and then some !
It’s ludicrously undervalued but the market likes to see hard figures and profit before it re-rates us
Great to think that one quarters profits pay for the expansion at the new mine taking us up to 140,000 oz producer !
Lots to come here and the growth opportunity is amazing all self sustaining.
Todays start looking good with a couple of decent buys 100000@11.644, 150000@ 11.70 and 150000@11.68. If this continues 12p must be on the cards today.
Hi GGG, really enjoy your post, tip analysis.
But can. I ask what makes you say we’ll be adding $10m per quarter? We were miles off that last quarter weren’t we.
About Singida superpit: take a look and pay atentiom starting at min 6:53
https://youtu.be/kzMpQlHB89w?si=Xn8SzneaGd_45iQO
I agree with pretty much everything Publican, except the Au price. Reckon we may need to wait until Q1 before we see new highs. I see Au range bound ($1970 - 2010) until the next set of inflation, retail sales and jobs reports come out. If heading in the same direction then Feb 01st Fed meeting should light the blue paper to push Au to all time highs. To be honest I think this will be perfect timing for the sp to start pushing toward all-time highs as well. We'll have received the Q4 results, which will be spectacular and show a net cash position of circa $10m. And we should have received all exploration results by this point, which will then feed into the Feb/Mar reserves report. From there they can sanction the second ball mill at Sing and we're off to the races. By end H1 I'd be surprised if we're not at 20p. A bid then will need to be closer to 30p.
As mentioned many times, the longer a would be predator waits to make a bid the more they will have to pay. This is especially the case if Au continues on its current trajectory, which imo is all but guaranteed. Remember every quarter we're adding +$10m cash to our accounts. By the end of next year we'll have $50m in cash sitting on top of +1moz of additional resources (min), ML for WK, and140k oz production profile for 2025. Then we have jokers in the pack like Sing super-pit, $30m VAT receivables, and another Tanz near mine license with +500k defined resources. All will add 5p in their own rights. Sing super-pit could make this go silly.
I just need my straggler to pick up in i3e and I'll add more to my pile here. Divis will obviously be reinvested. Something else for the sp next week. Reckon we will get an incremental +3m shares picked up by current investors with their divi payments. Put this buying on top of what we're currently seeing and you can add another half penny to our base. Soon to be knocking on 13.5p resistance imo (as in the next few weeks). GLA
Isn't it heavily manipulated by COMEX?
Very very easy hold
It’s only down here due to a forced seller and it’s looking like they have been flushed out now so the real move here might happen now
15/16P by Christmas is possible if gold moves up to 2080 level which I predict will happen in the coming weeks as it’s tested 2000 and ready to go
because they are drilling in the gold area for reserve area on the tanzanian assets to add oz’s they can see it in the cores.
kenya is more infill drilling to covert reserves
why don’t you do some research on shanta’s site
but it highlights that investors really don’t understand here. happy to educate you with any questions
but i hope you’re aware that shanta is not some explanation company , it’s producing in excess of 200 million dollars turnover !
personally glad they are extending mine life’s and fixing the roof while shining and bringing kenya to a full feasibility and permit.
that will then get the ball rolling on a jv or enhance the buyout price as it’s what the chinese are after
we are in a strong position now and not of weakness
last time they came knocking they were politely told to go away likely offering 15-20p
eric knows what we have and i agree with his current value of half a billion quid.
he’s also a large shareholder.
after the last bid they can’t approach for 6 months , that times elapsed so bids may well come in
what will that hype do here , as nobody will see them taking less that 25p
and their will be a lot of disappointment at taking that low ball but at the same time it’s a quick win
or good goes up to 2200 dollars area and breaks out
for every 100 dollars we pull in 20 million more
we are valued less than 2 x earnings when africa is a minimum of 4 x earnings
so we should be sat 20p already and it will re-rate on hard numbers
why wait for hard numbers when we can see them coming ? market wants to wait for what we already know , hence why lots are starting to see it and the tips of
************* , midas and others are starting to come out and a broker note up at 28p
Incorrect it’s adding value extending mine life’s and bringing Kenya to feasibility and adding reserves to indicated on the Canadian standard. Do you know what 11g/T gold equates to in monetary terms , a small operation can easily produce 100,000 oz
With exploration and Shanta now debt free it will be adding around 10 million a Quarter at least at this gold price accounting for drilling on three fronts and paying a dividend.
Drilling and expanding resources is a capital accounting expense so it’s building value and when gold pops the majors will be all over us and we will sit half a billion cap. Kenya will suddenly become a jewel Barrick want or the Chinese or anyone.
Ball mill at 6.5 million dollars gets us to 140,000 oz , they start that Q1 it’s going to start adding forward value.
It’s almost a self sustaining thing this with no debt so the interest burden gone.
I also suspect know that they spent extra capital on the new mine on a power upgrade so that’s now out of the way.
VAT back coming that will be huge if they get approval on offsetting against tax especially as they are about to declare big profits surplus’s
All in all amazing opportunity. Eric stated that he would like a partner on Kenya to share costs but if we get 50 million surplus’s by the end of next year a bank will lend us the rest and we are off. But I’d rather they partner and I am sure it’s an easy sell at 11/g/t or 6 g/T for 3 million oz !!! Tier 1 !!!
You don’t get deposits of that grade anymore and the area likely has 5 million minimum.
It’s stupidly valued at nothing when you have great land gold in the middle of a Nowhere ! No infrastructure looking to haul it 40kiloneters and it’s mineralisation starts 400 meters down so it’s Block cave
Kenya is all shallow depth.
This will turn into a big boy organically but I’d be happy if Eric gave away 50% of Kenya for a free build of Barrick and sat back with a 200,000 per annum run and take half of it
At an initial 12g/t the cash cost would be down at 500 dollars an ounce!
Pardon my ignorance, but how do you know all of the news will be good? How can we know that the drilling will show there is gold?
Sorry forgot a major one:
- Sing expansion update and decision.
That's great Jolly, really happy you jumped in here. Good luck (although I don't think we're going to need it).
One of the best things here is we're going to have great news rolling in every month for the next 12 months if they keep drilling hard across the tenements. Just looking at what we know we'll get before the end of 2024:
- 4 x quarterly, half-yearly and full year results
- Reserves report (February)
- VAT update(s) and decision (end 2024)
- WK ML
- Additional Tanz license update & decision
- New CEO
- EXPLORATION x ???
There's at least one major news item every month. With a significant amount of drilling I'd say we could expect an update of some sort at least every 3 weeks starting from now. GLA
So the company is forever spending all the money they make on building new mines? When does that end?
Eric says Singida cost of development was $42 million for current 34k oz annual production capacity. Add $6.5 million for the second ball mill etc and we get $48.5 million for 60k oz pa which is baked in the cake.
He says that if they didn't do the engineering, purchasing, construction and management (EPCM) themselves it would have cost near double.
If they adopt the same approach for Ramula, WK, for an initial 100k oz development taking ore from the Ramula open pit and some high grade trucked in from Isulu/Bushiangala a low ball scaled up cost estimate would be c.$90 million.
This Shanta could handle itself with accumulating cash 2024/25/26 plus a moderate s/t bank loan quickly repaid from mine profits.
There would be no need to partner with another party for such a low risk and low cost development.
Then next would be Isulu/Bushiangala open pit/underground development that would be higher cost and higher risk.
GGG, been here since 10.5pish, soon after you posted overthere. Was on the verge of re-investing after the little chinese interest episode had put me off, however your tip put me back in, so thank you again :)
Mick, it's no an IC tip but elsewhere. Was tipped a while back and they still have a buy recommendation, precisely due to management ability and resource operations upgrades. They've come down hard on people sharing their tips on these BB's. So I cannot say whom.
11.85p +0.65p
With the last movement up the BREAKOUT is on, as it has gone over the previous Intraday high
chart of BREAKOUT ... http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5ESHG&width=500&height=295&p=1&t=1&dm=2&vol=0&cb=
Correction . . . enter coordinates -5.2426734,35.0062034 and view satellite mage
I note the satellite has made another pass which shows current aerial features. See visual
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Singida+Gold+Mine+(SHANTA)/@-5.2413054,35.0052551,301m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x184b63961bd351b1:0x2fc31cca269f2b0a!8m2!3d-5.24296!4d35.0085166!16s%2Fg%2F11swl7q5yt?entry=ttu
Perhaps I have been overoptimistic on the possibility of Singida being a superpit unless it is a kimberlitic outlier. Although adjacent the 54 known pipes mapped in 1962 are located W and N of the mine.
W Kenya - Mark Bristow may well be toying with the idea of returning to the area. His background is more suited to the Xhosa and Zulu but he will be aware that the Nandi, etc around Kakamega are likely to be a thorny issue. Offhand I'd say Shanta is capable of going it alone with an open pit at Ramula.
" recommendation on a publication I subscribe to as well."
Investors Chronicle repeatedly tips Shanta