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PUTUP,
Unless I misread your post, you're in danger of taking my position on this.
What's wrong with you?
To be clear, Myles is definitely not the answer.
The bigger question is how/why/under what auspices was he appointed.
He looks/feels like a guy looking for a political future, and good luck with that.
Doesn't help my GKP position one jot.
Nor will it.
Good luck if he makes into Congress though.
And I wish him well.
But he ain't helping us.
What do you expect from a communications consultant (akin to those deployed by public companies to help with their investor communication)? You should expect zero.
What matters is the CEOs and other management from the affected companies getting down to face-to-face discussions. Shame there haven't been many of those...
Yes.
I read all that tosh PR.
So what?
I saw his 'presentation'.
Genuinely and wholly unimpressive.
He's not a 'Leader' of APIKUR, his firm was engaged for publicity and communication / lobbying, there's other people involved with the IOC's who have a lot of political clout.
"Myles B. Caggins III is a colonel in the U.S. Army. He provides expertise on public information warfare, ISIS, Kurdish affairs, veterans issues, national security, and military culture. He is founder and CEO of Words Warriors LLC a translation, public relations, and business advising company with offices in New York City and Erbil, Iraq. From military posts, combat zones, inside the Pentagon, and the White House (National Security Council), he has led communication strategy for some of the most challenging issues of the past decade, including: America’s rebalance to Asia and policy towards North Korea and China; Guantanamo and enemy combatant detention; the mission to defeat ISIS; military human capital and recruiting; and nuclear security.
Most recently, he served as the U.S. Army’s Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He served three year-long combat tours in Iraq. He is former spokesman for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria where he led a multinational communication team representing 78 nations. He has extensive international media experience and relationships with journalists—particularly on Arabic and Kurdish language networks. He has written commentary for CFR.org, The Root, Richmond Times-Dispatch, and the Armed Forces Journal. He has lectured, paneled, and keynoted at the Council on Foreign Relations, Pepperdine University, Hampton University, Harvard Kennedy School, and the Defense Information School, among other institutions.
He serves on non-profit boards for the Youthcast Media Group, New York Kurdish Cultural Center, and the Advisory Board for Hampton University’s Scripps Howard School of Journalism and Communications.
Colonel Caggins has earned numerous military awards, and decorations, including the Legion of Merit, two Bronze Star Medals, the Combat Action Badge, and the Presidential Service Badge.
Myles earned a bachelor’s degree in history from Hampton University; and a master’s in public relations from Georgetown University. He completed Harvard Kennedy School’s year-long National Security Fellows program in 2018. His personal network is multidisciplinary, multiethnic, and multinational; he is a Life Member in the Council on Foreign Relations, the Military Officers Association of America, and other professional and social organizations." With 26 years involved in the military, he's somewhere in his 40's.
"Patience still required".
In the end, the bet is on the Board and their ability to navigate these troubled waters.
And patience is obviously critical.
Along with confidence in GKP's relative position.
One thing's for sure; APIKUR will not provide the answer.
Pretty confident about that...
"Please tell me you know how these things work!!!"
I do. And still... nada. "Patience still required." The time to get excited is when JH is actually having significant meaningful discussions.
This won't be settled in the courts.
This will be settled by heavyweight and painful negotiation.
But we sit well in this environment because of the Re-structure; thank you LTHs. Genuinely.
Lots of pain I can only imagine.
And Caggins III won't be leading it. He'll be filling his pants in his cot with a very red pushing face.
Who the hell voted him in?
I doubt it was a vote. How could it be?
Three-point action plan
1. JH/GKP gets a confirmation in writing from the ICG/Iraq federal court that the PSC with KRG is illegal, and thus null/void (which Baghdad have been saying all along anyway).
Frees him from current PSC (which is simply dead in the current circumstances – so quicker we mourn and move on, the better).
PSC with KRG now a separate matter. Separate committee/litigation between GKP/KRG. Whatever.
2. JH/GKP begin bilateral negotiations on new contract terms with ICG/SOMO. Make the case regarding sunk costs/ investment recoverable/ etc.
New contact – less lucrative, but legal and gives certainty.
Move forward
Sunshine and rainbows
3. Profit????
APIKUR was a good move, they tried it, but it’s not conducive for progress now. Lack of statement, movement etc. following the US visit shows that. It served a purpose but like Mr Caggings said, oil companies will be the ones signing contracts and that will be that.
Business is business.
Not talking to GKP would be stupid if you're part of the ICG.
Off the record, in smoked filled rooms, without natural consequence or reproach.
Please tell me you know how these things work!!!
"I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors. "
Unfortunately the IOCs aren't involved in 99% of it. GKP isn't anyway...
This report, published in Kurdish by Erbil's Bwar News website, exposes the major players and staggering profits involved in smuggling crude oil from the Kurdistan Region to Iran and Turkey.
For months, four companies have been illicitly transporting over 700 tankers laden with 160,000 barrels of crude daily across borders into these neighboring countries.
Powerful local business conglomerates have established dedicated front companies to facilitate this underground oil trafficking operation from Kurdistan's fields:
• In Erbil, Makal (affiliated with KAR Group) receives crude from Khurmala in Erbil operated by Forza, exporting it through Haji Omeran and Ibrahim Khalil border crossings.
• Pator smuggles oil from Erbil and Duhok into Iran through Sulaimani province via Bashmakh and Parwizkhan borders - For each tanker to pass into the PUK zone, a charge of $300-360 per tanker is applied.
• Unicode (tied to Lanaz Group) transports Duhok's crude to Iran and Turkey.
• Hydrocarbon Company (linked to Qaywan Group) trafficks fuel from Sulaimani and Koya into Iran.
Once in Iran, Kurdistan's oil is funneled to ports like Bandar Imam, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, where specialized facilities prep the crude for global export.
While most goes to Iran, portions also reach Turkey, with a portion sent to the Tüpraş Batman refinery and the remainder to the Antakya and Mersin refineries.
Oil producers sell to these trafficking firms at cut-rate $28-$33 per barrel, which resell at $60 - a $25 discount to global prices, netting immense profits.
Specifically, DNO, Genel Energy, Taqa, and HKN sell oil at $31.50 per barrel in Duhok province, while Forza, Khurmala, Ain Zala, and Sufaya sell at $32 per barrel, and Sheikhan oil is sold at $28 per barrel.
These oil producers sell between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels daily to the four companies and domestic refineries, generating over $200 million monthly for producers like DNO, Genel, Taqa and HKN. But the real windfall is for the smuggling companies, raking in around $150 million each month.
Sen,
You might be onto something there.
Contractually, pretty sure JH couldn't make representations to the ICG about re-negotiating contracts well established with the KRG.
But the ICG will almost certainly have been in contact with GKP to have those 'chats' and 'off piste'.
Why not? It's a significant field which is self-funded. And debt free. And capable of producing 100k bopd.
If I was representing the ICG, I would be pretty interested in that proposition.
Wouldn't you?
Don't forget from the ICG perspective the basic principle is to divide and rule...in this case APIKUR.
I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors.
Because it matters to all participants.
I thought Erdogan's visit to Erbil meant that the export resumption was going to be announced today or tomorrow ... well, at least I have a small profit
Thanks SpArmada, appreciated.
Well you get to buy in cheaper which is your aim here.
Clealry the share price does not like the bloomberg comment - el pump de dump
Here: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/iraq-says-resuming-kurdistan-oil-exports-will-take-some-time-1.2062167
Does anyone have a link to the full text without paywall?
Does the aritcle mention anything about actions of the IOCs ??
Bloomberg just put a big damper on that rise today !!
Iraq saying oil resumption will take some time . Its only been 13 months how much longer do they want ?? Or do they accually want it flowing that's the question. More delaying tactics. Roll on September 2025 then it's Adios Amigos.
That time will fly by for independents baby .
Thanks for the response Belgrano.
I also think the key dynamic here is the desire to undermine KRG economic autonomy/extend ICG economic control. In my view, ICG can wait, whereas KRG (specifically KDP) maybe cannot wait as long. More time that passes, the more likely Kurds will be willing to accept the new realities - we are already seeing that with ICG paying salaries. KDP as far as I know are still boycotting the local elections (I think they are the only ones to do so, too - probably because they have the most to lose from this new reality, but continuing their boycott illustrates their isolation).
All that context aside, in my mind the key news I am looking out for is what I think will most likely happen: IOCs such as GKP going to ICG/SOMO to discuss new contracts - totally outside the purview of KRG.
Probably less favourable than current PSC, but in exchange we get legality, contractual certainty. Implication for recovering debt is not good; Baghdad clearly see that as a separate issue between KRG and IOCs. Fine.
IMO it's GKP's turn to approach Baghdad and start talking about new contracts. Us hiding behind any PSCs made with the KRG is not helping us move forward - especially when Baghdad have repeatedly called them illegal etc...
Small holding compared to some on here I'm sure. I'm averaging at 113, and love to see the SP above that. Not been trading it, holding out for a new operating scenario/rerate and dividends - but it is wild to watch the swings in SP. Once the real news actually breaks, this thing is going to pop~~~
I thought there was going to be an announcement, anyone knows what will be announced?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/iraq-says-resuming-kurdistan-oil-exports-will-take-some-time
Belgrano, are you sure that Iraq pays more for other oil companies?
The PSA-s (Profit Sharing Agreement) that I checked pay around 40% less remuneration vs the Kurd PSC-s (profit oil).
(Although you can argue that Kurdistan is riskier and its harder to extract oil, so higher compensation is justified... But who cares if they just wanted to bring the kurds to their knees?..)
Iraq as reported on Bloomberg that Kurdish oil exports will take time is clear sign of continued lying.
They could have easily resolved this over a year ago but are not doing it by choice.
Now they are playing same trick by trying for yet more delays, who do they think they are fooling, they have no credibility left.
Hi Mendoza,
Quite frankly I don't believe its anything to do with the IOC contracts, that's the excuse they like to hide behind. The truth is its all about bringing Kurdistan under the heel of Iraq, and squashing all dreams of independence.
They could have easily tweaked the law to allow payments equivalent to our current contract terms. Indeed Iraq actually pays more to other oil companies so not unique.
However they do need Turkish water and Turkey wants Kurdish crude, as its also invested heavily in the Kurdish IOC's along with the Kurdish pipeline.
MoUs are just an agreement to agree, without any real legal status.
BUT economics will eventually outweigh politics...it just takes time for the politicians to realise this simple economic truth.
The ITP will re-open because it's in every party's interest that it does.
The rest is about negotiating the terms. And that will affect the timescale.
APIKUR have no place at that table. Their amalgam is too weak, too disparate and too different in terms of the independent members' financial structure.
However, JH does have muscle , because GKP sit in a different space where they can control their own destiny due to their chequered and re-structured financial history and the benevolence of LTHs.
As a consequence, while JH cannot influence geopolitical affairs, he can at least determine GKP's response to those outcomes. While still making money.
Hopefully he'll do that in the best interests of us lot.
Given his actions over the last three plus years I have confidence in his motives and judgment.
Until I don't.