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BP bought back 718.7 million shares in H1, 4% of the share capital. For this buyback, there's enough left in the kitty, at these prices, to buy 7.5-8 million shares a day, for all of July. As for the next buyback I'd go for $1.5bn, although BP did say in the last results there would be a working capital release in H2. With an oil price of $75 and yield of 4.3%, it's hard to put a convincing case for a higher share price, but while the oil market looks for direction, sub £5 buybacks offer solid value in the medium term. Looking forward to August's results, with Shell raising their dividend, if BP don't increase their own, the market won't like it.
Good morning all
SPR releases completed. Replenishing of the SPR starts this month. Opec cuts hit supply from 1st July. Saudi 1M cut also most probably carried over to August.
Will be interested to see the coming week's US crude inventory draws starting with data on Tuesday and Wednesday. Peak summer driving season starting and Hopefully oil equities responding accordingly.
May have already started looking at oil equities this morning.
Great day everyone
I'll take £4.64! - cant see much movement between here and xmas but happy to be proved wrong!
£5.05 for me please spights!
Think the time span is a couple of years ,but would expect less US oil to lead to higher prices,which hopefully translate to higher BP sp.
Is that good or bad for the share price.
Subject: Competition 2023 Christmas ( Bottle of Champagne for winner)
Christmas 2023 Jeffrey1979 £4.60
Christmas 2023 Owls £4.71
Christmas 2023 Spikeyj £4.84
Christmas 2023. ClydeCrusader £4.85
Christmas 2023 wolfiebill £4.87
Christmas 2023 beecknot £4.95
Christmas 2023Selecta6 £5
Christmas 2023 Halma 1983 £5.10
Christmas 2023 Pang £5.12
Christmas 2023 Boxter £5.18
Christmas 2023 GKerr £5.20
Christmas 2023 Bruce77 £5.27
Christmas 2023 Neil 74 £5.33
Christmas 2023. Keepergy £5.45
Christmas 2023 Harmonica £5.50
Christmas 2023 Rjb 92 £5.55
Christmas 2023 Redjim £5.65
Christmas 2023 GoodTo Go £5.70
Christmas 2023 Jezzo £5.75
Christmas 2023. meoryou £5.78
cChristmas KPMAN £5.83
Christmas 2023 Jakers £5.85
Christmas 2023 MarkGo £5.90
Christmas 2023 Happy investor 100 £6.00
Christmas 2023 Spights £6.45
Christmas 2023 jamtart 1 £6.50
Christmas 2023 y11 £18.20
Good afternoon meoryou
I am still in the positive camp with blips on the way.
Onwards and upwards:))))
Morning Spights
Last quarter was another good one.
Results will be at least okay.
Let’s hope Looney pulls a rabbit from the hat, with some positive surprises.
As oil prices hover underneath the $75 for a Brent barrel, OPEC has likely found itself stuck with the extra supply cuts it took on—mainly Saudi Arabia—a hedge fund manager told Bloomberg on Friday.
“It would be too damaging to prices to remove it at this time, given the fragility of sentiment,” hedge fund manager of Black Gold Investors LLC said.
Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia voluntarily agreed to downsize its production targets by another 1 million barrels per day for the month of July—although it could be extended. Oil prices reacted by jumping up, but the effects were not long-lasting. Today, crude oil prices are lower than they were prior to the announced cut, putting OPEC in a tricky position.
In the runup to the OPEC meeting, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders once again against taking a speculative bet against oil. He made similar threats back in 2020. “I’m going to make sure whoever gambles on this market will be ouching like hell,” he said at the time.
Indeed, OPEC’s cuts they announced back in April hurt short sellers when prices rallied. This time, however, the warning ahead of time likely muted the response to Saudi Arabia’s generous production cut.
OPEC—most importantly Saudi Arabia—is working against disappointing economic data out of China.
Brent prices are just a hair under $75 per barrel today, but recent estimations from the International Monetary Fund suggest that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven for crude oil is more than $80 per barrel.
Good morning all,
meoryou excellent advice
Saudi Arabia’s extra cuts go into effect in July, and prices could tick up as supply tightens. After all, the IEA has predicted that crude oil supply will exceed demand by 2 million bpd in the second half of this year.
Couple of thoughts
Zacs point is well made with good data.
However there is a chance that BP respond to the Shell div increase with a rise of their own next results time which is exactly a month away 1 st August.
There is also a chance that buybacks will once again increase next quarter.
If no recession in 2 nd half of year, oil may be tight and oil price a bit higher.
These could move sp,higher
If however there is a recession we may all be using hindsight to wish we had sold.
You know yourself when the time is right, and you feel that price is close enough to move on.
If in doubt keep half.
Then you are only half wrong
Zac, I'm another one kicking myself for not selling the lot at £5.70, but we can all the clever in hindsight. The truth is that when the share price hit its highest the talk was all about takeovers.
Remember that Rosneft on its own would be worth an extra £1 on the share price. So here's hoping something can be salvaged from the current situation and allow some value to return to shareholders.
"Hi Neil I would definitely hold until Christmas.
It is always the strongest period . . . "
Neil - be careful. Here's data showing 2nd half year performance over the last 5 years:
2018 -18%
2019 -14%
2020 -18%
2021 +5%
2022 +23%
Now, there's always different views on data. My take is simply that 2021 / 2022 figures enjoyed the benefit of a tailwind as the share price was in 'recovery' mode and was simply heading by to the norm ie around £5.00
Looking at a 10 year graph £5 probably is 'the norm' Yes, there are periods when it will climb but it always comes back down. It's a classic share that the only way to make money is to lock in profit when available. Best results will not be achieved adopting a simple buy and hold strategy. But that's only my view. Others will disagree . . . strongly, looking at some of the year end share price predictions!!
Any one else waiting for Freetrade to pass on the BP dividends?
Https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/reliance-industries-bp-start-regular-production-from-mj-field-in-kg-block-123063000619_1.html
Good morning all.
Hi Neil I would definitely hold until Christmas.
It is always the strongest period
I have held for over 15 years but today I entered an auto sell price of 465p which never quite hit.
I was thinking that this share ain't going over 500p any time soon. After trading I have cancelled the sell order and going to wait for 500p and think again, maybe sell before Christmas.
Clydecrusader,
If I remember rightly, you were last year’s winner. I see you’ve downgraded your entry from £6.25 to £4.85. Any specific reason? I know it’s cheeky to ask but given your exemplary track record.....
Tinker
YES WILL DO :)))))
Spights,
I'd prefer y11 to win!!!! But, zero chance there.
Your suggestion of jamtart would be fine, though.
Just a thought, if you don't mind me mentioning.
Why not drop the Crymbo 2023 off each line?
you could have that as a header.
May be easier for you?
:)))
Hopefully jamtart1 will win
! what a bunch of optimists we are!