Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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For long-term holders a reduced share price can still be considered good, since it allows the company to buy back more of their own shares for less money. I'm happy that they made use of the opportunity and increased the amount of shares they bought.
Personally, I was too impatient. I had sold the day before and bought back yesterday, but too early (for an average price of £17.40), since after the good opening I did not expect it to drop so far.
Unless you go through the hoops for a reduced WHT rate you lose 20% so effectively 108p drop for 60p dividend, not a good day today unless you sold out and missed divi.
Oi oi, it's simple maths.
Yesterday it was known that today you'd get £0.75 per share if you held the shares. Therefore you expect the share price to drop by £0.75 as soon as the market opens. Any other movement is just the daily noise.
I do hope so. I'd missed it had gone ex. SPI announced to me at least excellent results today. Obviously I don't understand the Markets!! I was hoping that had gone ex- too!!
Is that why the share price has dropped (as people sell the shares they'd bought to take advantage of the divi payment perhaps)?
Ex-dividend today. Approximately 75p gross and 60p net less 20% WHT.
I'd call the P/e 8 rather than 7 to be comparable to other UK listed companies for the withholding tax on dividends.
Still decent
What I would focus on is simply
The ex div price is about 17.20
Eps consensus, probably fair, is around 240p.
Pe close to 7.
If you only use 7 times on interest earnings that values the cash pile at about a 70 per cent discount! To illustrate for every 100 pounds you earn on cash at about 4 per cent net of tax you multiply by the group pe of 7 to give you a valuation of 28 for every 100.
I noticed that the company now holds around one third of the shares intreasury. With the buy back just announced the potential for the sp to fall must be limited and I am thinking that another 5 years like the last one will see the sp up significantly on the basis of the smaller and smaller number of shares in issue - even if growth stalled!
It's all a guess though isn't it. No hard facts really, despite your Jefferies note. Straight line, exponential, or zero growth, or a big flop in the US, who knows. But if they keep their costs low and variable there is little risk and possibly a big upside in trying to go big in the US
To be clear, they were not explicit on the run rate as per January, but implied it was around that level. If growth to their 2026 target is more straight line, end 2024 run rate will be around $115m, end 2025 will be $180m, end 2026 will be $250m, which is their goal. Profitability will be lower I gather. Assuming 30% EBITDA margin once stabilised, the implied profit contribution will be material enough, albeit probably not transformational. We don't however know how conservative their $250m revenue goal is. It might be very conservative.
The information was in a Jefferies note shared with me.
As per the below statement at Interims, the US biz basically launched around mid last year, which is how I read it.
So it is implied that between mid last year and January the US biz grew from annual run rate of few million to circa $50m. That is already high single digit % of group revenues. I assume that to reach the $250m target by end 2026 this business will need to more than double this year (say to $120m), which is quite possible given progress so far.
So the revenue contribution is already not immaterial on a monthly basis.
"Strong progress made in accessing the US futures market, representing a multi-year growth opportunity for Plus500:
o B2B Institutional opportunity - continued to develop strategic position as a B2B market infrastructure provider, through the onboarding of various regulated introducing brokers in the US futures market, supporting institutional clients with brokerage-execution and clearing services
o B2C Retail opportunity - recently launched 'Plus500 Futures', a new B2C intuitive proprietary futures trading platform. This is in addition to last year's launch of the 'TradeSniper' platform, which now also offers trading on 'event-based contracts'"
Ggplyr. You are right.
What I would like to see here is a USA listing which I believe would see the SP move significantly higher, but no indication that this may happen. The P/E ratio is pathetic.
Ah ok, where have you seen that? (I havent watched the webcast yet).
Do mean its done $50m from june 23 to jan 24?
Sorry $50m as per January, according to what management have been telling people
The US business has an annual revenue run rate of up to circa $60m as per January, apparently, which is a ramp up since end June which is why it doesn't appear as a great contributor yet, and equates to 5-10% of annual revenue as of today. I would like to know the monthly growth trajectory. I suspect it could grow 50-100% this year to a run rate of $90-$120m by end 2024 which would put the target of $250m easily within range. It is already a material business but more importantly it is growing very fast.
@ seaTank, i think we can just infer that the US operation isn't material. If you compare the ROW vs UK, AUS, and EEA this year vs last its pretty much the same ratio, i.e. the new customers in ROW is 21% of all new customers this year. Last year it was 19%. the Revenue per customer from RoW is pretty much the same as last year too.
So i'd surmise the US operating is pretty insignificant right now.
@ Jab1tt, where are these vast amounts have been spent on widening its operations? they aren't in the P&L. reduction in profit is driven by reduction in income, not really increase in costs.
I would have liked to have seen more disclosure on the US operation. Jefferies said that management have been talking to institutional shareholders about ARPU of US clients being higher than OTC and that they already have a few thousand clients, also that the B2B side is contributing around $50 million at present, presumably revenue - the aim is to reach $250m revenue by 2026, so 6x what they have today. My view is they should be more explicit about what the US business is generating currently on a monthly basis therefore ARR.
I would also have liked to have seen a higher cash dividend than was announced given all the cash they hold and also some treasury shares cancelled. I guess this is why the share price has fallen today - profit taking on mild disappointment after a strong run of the share price. I expect the share will continue to gently nudge upwards from tomorrow onwards, thus continuing the trend, as progress is still positive and the stock is much too cheap.
Best thing they could do would be to get a US listing which would really boost the SP, but no mention of that.
Bet thing they could do would be to get a US listing which would really boost the SP, but no mention of that.
Yes but massive drop in income from customer trading, which is inevitably very volatile, totally explains the drop in profits.
Strange that no one mentions the magic word profit here, which is about 30% down on last year.I do realise that vast amounts have been spent on widening the scope of the operation, but at the end of the line it's profit that counts.
No wonder the SP has not moved upwards
Very solid results & outlook.I am sure they would say that they are more selective about customers & have been targeting higher value clients for some time.I presume that the contribution from the US is not yet material & that operation may well be loss making due to marketing costs but ,if so, that will soon reverse & substantial revenues & profits will result.Much space in the report was devoted to our US operation & they appear to have big plans & expectations.The recent increased interest in cryptos ( again ) may be resulting in more revenues (again)
We have been targeting higher value clients for some time .Contribution from US operation likely to be still immaterial & my guess is loss making ,with view to investment in expansion & marketing costs but much of the 23 report & outlook was devoted to the US so I assume they expect substantial future growth there
More Buybacks, AND a Special div. Lovely. Only slight negative I see, and probably nitpicking, is the reduction in active customers.