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The outgoing CEO (Mitch Flegg) said:
"Moreover, there are further growth opportunities within the Company's existing producing fields and other assets in Serica's portfolio, such as the potential Buchan Horst project".
How could he say any more when the FDP still hasn't been approved? His comment wasn't negative. He's right though.
Re Flegg's comment about FID in part being dependent on the impact on project economics of expectations for the future tax regime which will apply through the life of the project.........
..........I've mugged up a NPV based on DCF, assuming Labour behaves as stupidly as they probably will because they're stupid (and disingenuous - think of a few more adjectives to describe these socialist cretins). There's a negative NPV for both NEO and SQZ through to 2033. JOG gets a positive number valuing it (mostly 20% of Buchan) at around £4 a share. That's because JOG doesn't have any capex. Someone has to spend nearly £1bn to get any oil out, however, so JOG's NPV is notional only.
The hope is that Labour's clowns come to their senses, or a miracle happens and they don't get elected. The project works for everyone, although it's not sensational, under the Conservatives' proposals, incredibly unfair and disingenuous though they are.
If Buchan doesn't go ahead, JOG will still have a value that's no lower than its present market cap by virtue of the cash it will have when the FDP is approved, the cash value of its tax losses and whatever what will be categorised as 25mmboe of 2P reserves in a good NS post code is thought to be worth, bearing in mind a lot has to be spent to get the oil to the surface. Not sure the market will see "value" that way though.
Rumours are that NEO is up for sale. If it is, someone will buy the company I guess. Maybe whoever does buy it will also buy JOG to mitigate the cost? Buchan is a big project so one assumes whoever buys NEO will be committed to going ahead with Buchan. £4 would do for me in the circumstances.
JOG had no oil interests to speak of and about £1m in the bank when I first started adding to the 20k JOG shares I got for my 2m shares in TRAP (Aug 2015). I liked the chaps and added multiples between the time JOG's placing price of 22p fell to 8p in Feb 2016 (when it had a market cap of about £650k) and when it got to about 25p a few months later. I've added at less favourable prices since.
If the boys from Delmonte should say "no" come the time to make the FID, JOG might decide to revert to its original (unfulfilled) strategy of buying WIs in late-life producing assets with good tie back arrangements - who knows? This time just NOT IN THE F****** NORTH SEA or anywhere near it. Or it might decide to major on wind turbines, solar energy and the moon (which controls tidal movement). Make that a full moon.
Effing politicians - I'd hang 'em all.
What day is it? Sorry, nurse.
In addition to the non-committal reference to Buchan in the presentation this paragraph from Serica's results (under 'Outlook') is rather concerning (to me anyway):
'A draft FDP has been submitted for the Buchan Horst field. As with all major capital projects, a final investment decision, which is not expected before the latter part of 2024, depends in part on the impact on project economics of expectations for the future tax regime which will apply through the life of the project.'
So if Labour win the general election later this year, as most commentators expect, it would seem a final investment decision is going to at least partly hinge on what impact their planned draconian tax regime on UKCS has on the project.
This adds an element of uncertainty to the project actually going ahead that, rightly or wrongly, I have not previously considered to be material. Perhaps Serica are just being ultra cautious in their wording (I hope so).
Based on this I'm not expecting any new Buchan information today from the Serica presentation https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/AR_2023_final.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj19bLE79qFAxXNYEEAHXZABYwQFnoECCoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1sxNIYCHoRy3mu9-pW-9KM that they refer to it as 'potential'Buchan Horst project might partly explain why the SP of JOG remains subdued, I would have liked some more definite language, those approvals can't come soon enough.
I can't make that, can anyone watch do a JOG LSE board RNS?
Serica are doing a presentation on Investor Meet today at 2.00pm. Might be worth viewing to see if there is any mention of Buchan and movement on the FDP.
They look to be increasing their exposure to the CNS - maybe there is still hope for us JOG holders.
Well government approval is what we want asap.
I'm guessing the DSV is in the field to prepare the subsea infrastructure for FPSO removal. Isolating any wellheads, getting rid of hydrocarbons in the pipework and risers to the FPSO which requires FPSO involvement.
Once completed the DSV would be finished and return to port and I would expect Anchor Handlers/Tugs to arrive on scene for FPSO removal. Its happening but not fast!
"Anchors Aweigh," well hopefully.
Boka Atlantis, a diving support vessel has arrived at Western Isles which suggests the FPSO may soon be on its way to a port.
Hello Dick,
Thank you for those 2 links - quite absorbing stuff, particularly as 1 leads into an evidence based debate between opposing scientists.
Through my ISA account with ii. The ask shown was £1.57 which is also bit misleading given the price I paid.
Interesting, thanks. Jockvest111 - did you make that purchase with a broker like HGL (who I understand make an internal market in their trades) or a direct market access broker? I wonder why it's reported late. I'm genuinely interested in how this works.
@greener101 - this trade was reported late. LSE doesn’t try to work out the bid and ask at time of trades for these so just states unknown.
I always assumed the unknown / grey trades are related to brokers like HGL making good their internal ledger with the market. I wonder why yours is 'unknown'.
‘I assume the comment about not wanting talk of JOG's share price is directed at me’
Well at least I didn’t call you @3m asking for £5000 to rescue me from the kidnappers; I spare you that until you’re 78. You’re a long way to go yet.
Good morning and happy Friday everyone. Take a breath and forget the share price for a few days.
That trade is mine and is a buy.
If you believe in this global warming, net zero nonsense, I have a moon ladder in my garage for sale.
Just extend it out and a few steps later, you're the new Neil Armstrong....honest.
Https://www.verywellmind.com/an-overview-of-the-dunning-kruger-effect-4160740
Climate deniers?
Should we believe you in preference to these two deniers?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UEx_XqT3rE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-Iu1i317E
China has as much installed wind as the next 7 countries combined
Solar - more than the rest of the world combined
Maybe they ARE doing something - just that they use a lot of energy making stuff for the rest of the world - we've exported much of our carbon production, and no reason why we shouldn't do something
Maybe stop listening to the Climate Change deniers?
Everyone is loving your posts DU. Our IQs go up a point or two as we think about them. Just not much to add tis all
Thank you for your courtesy, CHF.
I assume you are the sole person who regarded my posts as worth reading? Took me 2 hours + to put together. Guess there's nothing in them worth discussing
Thank you again for your views Dick.
Liam Halligan ( a great guy) and you just confirm my view as a recently ( but coming on for a very long time)
ex-Conservative Party member, that the Tory Party is now a Centre-Left Party.