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Gotreal I have just seen your last post which I wanted to answer but thought better of it. Please read my post regarding the RNS and please answer it honestly. I would really like your opinion. Or are you going to ignore something that is factual, honest and gives a good example of what we are dealing with
Sorry to be pedantic, the RNS was not at all accurate and if someone wanted to they could go to the NOMAD and ask why an RNS that was not factual was allowed to be released. This is where they shoot themselves in the foot and why people are sceptical. However I repeat, I have quite a few million shares and think the Company will be great but these are the things that should not happen. If it happened to a Company that was is the FTSE 250 the Chief executive would resign
With regard IRH paying anything, you being confident and fact are two different things.
Edzi yes I have been looking for the electrical component but it wasn't there. Maybe we won't be too far out we can revise as the quarters tick by next year.
Enjoy your holiday and your book although this board is better. Good spot on the paint job I would have to look back at the RNS to see if there was any mention of the scarlet pimpernel component.
Gray1
Have you been looking in my dustbins, your projections on Chrome, PGM's and Copper are identical to what I worked out about 3 weeks ago when I was emailing a certain person on this board. I put it at 8k of copper to star with and then raised it to 12 k as I don't know how much will be copper sulphide
I will assume Roan is ramped up by the end of June.
12k tons of copper for the year. I will assume a copper revenue per ton of $8k a bit lower than current price of around $9.5k but I will err on the side of caution as the first two quarters this year we are only averaging $6.7k but we are only producing a small amount.
cost per ton around $4 - $4.5k we are around that margin at the moment but economies of scale could reduce that (JLP claim they could hit $3.8k not a million miles away)
This gives a gross margin of between $3.5-$4k and a potential gross profit of between $42-$48 million.
Converting to sterling and the usual deductions probably comes in around £20-£30 mill nett profit. It is a wide margin as I don't know the exact amounts for deductions
eps of 0.67p-1p, pe of 8 uplift to sp of between 5p-8p.
There are a lot of assumptions in there on the downside the margin could be smaller and we may not produce 12k but on the upside more modules could come on line through IRH partnership (lower margin though) or we could produce more ourselves and copper could continue to rise.
So each quarter I will be looking for 3k of copper at a gross margin of $3.5-$4k.
With the Chrome and pgms I did earlier sp of between 13p-18.5p. It might be cautious to some but I would rather they beat these figures than be below them. Again my opinion only other opinions maybe just as viable. We could also get a better pe as JLP seen as a growing company.
Hi All
Well,I'm on holiday at the moment,sitting in the sun having a drink and reading a very good book.
However, I must admit that reading everything on here today surpasses my good book. You just can't make it up.
On one side, we have some people who are looking at this share like they were sound normal investors, looking
at the situation as it is and as it has been, fully supporting the Company with skin in the game and like me if I dare
say so monitoring the horizon trying to take a pragmatic view of what has been said, or what hasn't been said, trying to protect the investment, looking at the good and the bad but still feeling that the Company is on the right track but keeps on slightly shooting itself in the foot. On the other side you have people living in HOPE and acting a bit like Leon not accepting , that there has been a problem and won't hear anything said about the Company that may be realistic or even god forbid TRUE. Let me give you an example, please remember that I am saying this with having quite a few million shares, last batch as reported bought at about 8p because Slater did. We had an RNS stating that the module for Roan was ready and all it needed was painting and then it would be shipped to site to have it constructed and then start building up to nameplate production. Was this true? err !! NO, we should have got an RNS stating we have the module ready for painting and all we are waiting for is the bit that makes it work, ie: the electronics. Now I am a huge supporter of the Company, Leon who I have spoken to on a number of occasions, and the Chairman who I have also spoken to.
BUT IN MY BOOK, WE WERE TOLD THE MODULE IS READY, and it wasn't I REST MY CASE. GOTREAL, now tell me where to go. Lots of love, going back to my book and drink.
Ok but more variables in this and a few more assumptions but I will try and explain why i arrive at the figures.
Gray1. I would appreciate your view on Copper next year if you don’t mind sharing it with us
It all looks sensible to me and generally in line valuations, though there are those much more switched on to basket prices and costs of extraction than me! Imo the "known unknowns" of the region and its challenges mean current price is broadly reflective of that Chrome/PGm position. It shows how crucial the chrome switch was to be fair. The growth of course, is the potential of copper. We continue to wait with baited breath!
Forgot to say we don't know if they negotiated a better margin for the 40% toll processing of Chrome. It is price sensitive so I don't expect them to tell us.
True but I don't expect it to get hammered but who knows in this crazy world we live in now. To be honest it is all about the gross margin and how close we can get to my range of $30-$35 dollars. Might be a little optimistic 3rd quarter chrome margin will shed more light on it.
Do you think Chrome price will hold up - many are now jumping on the bandwagon?
Thanks Heroric I did have a suspicion there were multiple profiles. What do you think of my Chrome/pgms forecast for next year?
Gray1 - got real / ardbegger profiles are the same person, possibly a third profile too. Its so pathetic and blatent it is untrue. Its pointeless arguing. Best bet is to just keep reporting the profiles when they post abuse/bullying and hopefully they will eventually be banned.
Wow you got a recommend for just writing copper gotreal so that means there are two of you who clearly didn't read the header You certainly have a devotee out there gotreal.
I will do one for copper separate if you wish gotreal.
I confident they haven't JLP would have said so maybe they are writing the RNS as I type hope they are.
Read the title
Copper?
Gray, I suggest you do not state things as facts when you actually do not know.
It is looking like JLP will produce 2 million tonnes of chrome next year (possibly more).
If we can generate a gross margin of $30-$35/ton (our margin in the second quarter was $23 thanks to Mikie). That will be a chrome gross profit of $60-$70 million for the year.
pgms 42k ounces at $100-$200/ton gross margin(2nd quarter margin $126) is $4.2-$8.4 million gross profit for the year.
Total gross profit based on above figures $65-$78 million.
After converting to sterling and the usual deductions around £30-£40 mill nett profit could be a little more without exact info of deductions hard to put a more accurate figure on it
eps of 1p to 1.33p. pe ratio of 8 gives a sp of between 8p and 10.5p. Therefore the chrome and pgms next year will underpin the sp higher than where we are now.
I don't think there is much downside to the $65 million unless there is a catastrophic event such as massive plant failure or a collapse in chrome price.
There could be some upside to the $78 million as we could produce more Chrome or margins could be greater etc.
Each quarter I will be looking for:
Chrome 500k tons at gross margin of $30-$35
pgms 10.5k ounces at gross margin $100-$200
Just my opinion most of it based on what we are doing or expected to do with an uplift in chrome margin. Looks promising if this is achieved as minimum. Rip it to bits guys I can take it I'm a big boy.
Hi Gray1. Ive bought and sold lots of times over a 15 year period. Recently bought at 5p and sold at 6p when it was pumped. Bought again about 5.5p and sold at 7.35p. Sold because of my personal circumstances but the yearly chart looked poor at that time.
Waiting for things to change on the home front before I get back in. Want to buy and hold until the middle of next year when I'll review it. Not worried about not being in at the moment. Can't see any rush to be in as things stand. Of course positive surprises can come along. JLP is more of a distraction for me at the moment but all being well I intend to come back in with double what I had in before, I'm that confident, but also realistic. Good luck to all holders, if I get left behind it's no problem in the grand scheme of things. Don't think it will happen though.
Sorry Frog, you are correct. I meant reliably ramping copper production up to the significant volumes stated. There remains a lot still to prove imo.
Neither do you and if they had I am sure JLP would be all over it like a rash. RNS would be out so fast you couldn't blink so for now until I see an RNS saying so I will take it as a not yet.