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I will do one for copper separate if you wish gotreal.
I confident they haven't JLP would have said so maybe they are writing the RNS as I type hope they are.
Read the title
Copper?
Gray, I suggest you do not state things as facts when you actually do not know.
It is looking like JLP will produce 2 million tonnes of chrome next year (possibly more).
If we can generate a gross margin of $30-$35/ton (our margin in the second quarter was $23 thanks to Mikie). That will be a chrome gross profit of $60-$70 million for the year.
pgms 42k ounces at $100-$200/ton gross margin(2nd quarter margin $126) is $4.2-$8.4 million gross profit for the year.
Total gross profit based on above figures $65-$78 million.
After converting to sterling and the usual deductions around £30-£40 mill nett profit could be a little more without exact info of deductions hard to put a more accurate figure on it
eps of 1p to 1.33p. pe ratio of 8 gives a sp of between 8p and 10.5p. Therefore the chrome and pgms next year will underpin the sp higher than where we are now.
I don't think there is much downside to the $65 million unless there is a catastrophic event such as massive plant failure or a collapse in chrome price.
There could be some upside to the $78 million as we could produce more Chrome or margins could be greater etc.
Each quarter I will be looking for:
Chrome 500k tons at gross margin of $30-$35
pgms 10.5k ounces at gross margin $100-$200
Just my opinion most of it based on what we are doing or expected to do with an uplift in chrome margin. Looks promising if this is achieved as minimum. Rip it to bits guys I can take it I'm a big boy.
Hi Gray1. Ive bought and sold lots of times over a 15 year period. Recently bought at 5p and sold at 6p when it was pumped. Bought again about 5.5p and sold at 7.35p. Sold because of my personal circumstances but the yearly chart looked poor at that time.
Waiting for things to change on the home front before I get back in. Want to buy and hold until the middle of next year when I'll review it. Not worried about not being in at the moment. Can't see any rush to be in as things stand. Of course positive surprises can come along. JLP is more of a distraction for me at the moment but all being well I intend to come back in with double what I had in before, I'm that confident, but also realistic. Good luck to all holders, if I get left behind it's no problem in the grand scheme of things. Don't think it will happen though.
Sorry Frog, you are correct. I meant reliably ramping copper production up to the significant volumes stated. There remains a lot still to prove imo.
Neither do you and if they had I am sure JLP would be all over it like a rash. RNS would be out so fast you couldn't blink so for now until I see an RNS saying so I will take it as a not yet.
Hi Mr Gray, yes I have accumulated quite a few over 15 years or more
Frog
You have no idea if IRH have put money in or not....
You are a big shareholder here frogkid? Kalan you waiting to get in?
Thanks Kalan, extremism is rife in our society. We don't need it here. I'm broadly very impressed with Leon and ofen say so. But he is not the messiah and things go wrong. In these situations we need to ask questions.
They don't want to get it Gray1.
They just don't get it Kalan.
Gray 1, Frogkid, Edzi et al. Keep posting - the debate has ratcheted up 500% due to you. Honesty is seeping through - when they start name calling (derampers. negative etc, you know you've won the argument). You all own shares here but are realistic. We are all going to make money and sharing can only help that process IMO.
So Tiverton it isn't a fact that JLP will miss this years copper guidance? It isn't a fact that IRH are yet to invest a single penny in the business? It isn't a fact that the copper electrical component has now been delayed for 21 weeks? It isn't a fact that JLP raised money for "general working capital purposes"? There's more but I can't be bothered with it.
Accept your point Northern. If JLP borrowed capital to invest in capital projects then no problem. When they raise it from shareholders it's not quite the same in my book. There is zero doubt in my mind that JLP did the placing when they did because they were running out of cash due to capital expenditure on Thutse and Roan. IMO they are spending more than they are getting in right now and are robbing Peter to pay Paul (love these old sayings). By that I mean using the money from the placing to finish Roan - even the parts officially allocated for advanced waste rock purchasers. It will be a while before we get the financials to prove I'm right. But I'm quietly confident.
It's no biggy in the long run but the over run is costing money.
When money comes out of the same pot, it's expenditure, spend more than is coming in, it's cash flowing out (net), the accountant labelling part of it capex doesn't change that unless he gets extra money in and we all know where JLP get the extra money from when needed.
Not playing any games - just saying it as it is - can't see why people have a problem with that.
Anyway- great investment this - from RNS, expecting Roan running by end of May/ mid June, fingers crossed and production to be higher than where it is now by end of June, with nameplate production by mid to end of July. Based on what the RNS said.
Tiverton, you are a chump. I have every right to hold LC and the board to account as I have invested a lot of money here. Better than being a sycophantic lemming.
Tiverton Who have I been abusive to ? What abuse have I said? Please state and show examples. I can clearly put happdays calling me and imbecile jut for starters.
Guys the only way to stop these two being so negative and abusive is to ignore them completely just let them post between themselves DONT FEED THEM hopefully then they will go away
It was mentioned in the RNS and it didn't state it was for the advancement of specific projects it just said and I quote for "general working capital purposes". They needed it they took advantage of the placing to cover it and raised it.
Some businesses do it with a loan some have enough cash flow to cover and some do a placing JLP chose a placing no big deal they were honest about it don't know why others are trying to make out they didn't have a short term cash flow problem. JLP have clearly acknowledged it and moved on.
Pretty sure working capital was mentioned in the RNS SeisNav? I'm too lazy to look.
@heroric, to suggest the Cu will not appear makes no sense, we already produce it!
They didn’t do a placing to raise “working capital” it was to advance the specific projects that were in the proposed placing RNS. The placing was oversubscribed so they raised more than planned. What company is going to turn down extra cash at a time when they are trying to grow the business? It doesn’t follow that they needed that extra cash for a cash flow problem. Unless of course you think Leon was lying about the reasons for the placing. Kalan obviously does as he’s said as much.
Gray1 there are increasingly some good (and returning long term) posters on here now with much needed open discussion also taking account the traits of JLP - and their input is very much appreciated and valued. Please dont be put off posting and asking the hard questions.
The only way we win here is to be very careful, scratching below the surface. Ignore anyone saying its a no brainer or a certainty. Its absoutely not and JLP have a loonng history in which I have won and lost. We are here in hope, currently I am currently mostly out though annoyingly bought a few literally the day brefore the last RNS. I ve since sold a few of those at loss as I fear this may drop further during this latest delay. The big question is - will they ever deliver the copper? - they have a lot to prove and at the moment imo are not doing a great job of proving it. Lets hope they do but I am applying an abundance of caution and question everything and do not buy into it being a "no brainer", "certainty" etc.
Ard Begger says below that IRH have entered a binding agreement with JLP. Much as Id like that deal to be done, I am not confident that is the case as it has not been definately stated as we had expected to hear. What was actually said in the RNS I felt was vauge/coy leaving room for doubt and interpretation. Have they put money in yet? who knows? - that is the joy of JLP