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Come on Andy , is that your best ? Finishing your response with idiot really says it all. Embassies being used to cloak darker goings on become legitimate targets apparently.
Relax a bit you sound quite angry.
John Bolton is a Bush warhawk psychopath...and if you condone a military strike on sovereign Embassy territory then I hope you're nowhere near anybody else's Embassy anywhere else in the world.
I presume you're happy with 'rules based order' rather than international law?
Idiot.
In the morning , made a very decent profit on AAL today the profits are coming in here tomorrow with the rest going back into my other holdings
Happy Days
I would sign if the price was right (would you like the code to my Swizz account ?).
Re expiry of existing pipeline agreement.
Does anyone really believe that Baghdad would stand idly by and let the KRG sign a pipeline agreement with Turkey - one which utilizes the existing Faysh-Khabur - Ceyhan pipeline, an agreement which would give the KRG enormous leverage over the only pipeline available to export Iraq's oil to the Med?
I do not believe it for one minute.
This time next year when no resolution has been agreed this board will be looking forward to September.
Time does fly and iraq will be longer for kurdistan independence
"got an inside line into those high level iranian conversations have we dumgrano?"
Andy1022, I do not think Belgrano needs to have inside knowledge of the Iranian regime - you can get that from reading the informed comments of expert commentators on Iran - former British ambassadors/charge d'affaires, specialists at our universities that have decent Persian Studies departments (Oxford, St Andrews, Exeter, Durham, SOAS, etc.) and from Iranian specialists working at think-tanks that advise Western governments: Carnegie Endowment, RUSI, etc.
The best theories about the behaviour of the Iranian regime are the ones that join up the most dots. Common sense tells you the regime is brutal, is concerned about its legitimacy being undermined, is dependent on exploiting difference with the West to unite its people and is hellbent on projecting power throughout the region in preference to lifting the living standards of its citizens. It also invokes religion to bolster the power of the government. The regime is stable until it collapses, and it is probably foolish to try to predict when that will be.
Suffice it to say, the regime is intent on eradicating Western influence on its citizens (does not want to compete with seemingly more attractive value systems) so it will spend its vast natural resource wealth, on among other things, buying Iraqi politicians to try to get rid of us out of the Middle East altogether. Belgrano's posts are spot on.
Pepe Escobar sounds like a conspiracy theorist claiming Israel launched a plane carrying an atomic bomb that was shot out the sky by the Russians before it reached Iran (Aliens built the pyramids and conveniently left no trace and all that stuff). Israel's interest in retaliation on the Isfahan region was probably designed to give the Iranian regime a reality check about Israel's capabilities without escalating the conflict, a small enough retaliation not to rile Israel's allies who had urged restraint.
Although I cannot stand Netanyahu (Sarkozy called him a liar, which sounds right), I have no problem with them attacking Iran's consulate in Damascus to kill one of the people orchestrating trouble throughout the Middle East. John Bolton seems to me to be one of the few Americans who gets Iran right, and I have lived and worked in Iran. I think Belgrano's posts are excellent. Also Investrat's posts demonstrate more realism about the region than anyone else's. JMV.
@nobull,
don't take it personally, it's only business.
The central government is interested only in re-establishing their rights in KRI as sovereign authority, with SOMO in charge of all external sales and marketing of crude oil & derivatives.
IMO it's going to get even messier, with the KRG trying to wriggle out of their payment obligations.
'While there is no defined timeline, we continue to actively engage with government stakeholders to secure a solution to unlock significant value for all stakeholders.”
Roll out the barrel, we'll have a barrel of fun!
Biscuit barrel, that is.
Well it could be worse.
Although its not exports starting, these actual words from the report are highly encouraging for us investors. please read below.
Local sales volumes have rebounded since the beginning of 2024, with year to date gross average sales of c.33,300 bopd and March to date sales of c.43,000 bopd. We are more than covering our monthly expenditures and have significantly reduced accounts payable, with all invoices now current. Free cash flow from current robust local sales demand is being used to further improve our liquidity position. Looking ahead, we remain resilient with upside potential from the restart of exports and normalisation of payments. While there is no defined timeline, we continue to actively engage with government stakeholders to secure a solution to unlock significant value for all stakeholders.”
21 March 2024
"Not all KRI produced crude will find its way into the export pipeline"
That may be true, but there comes a point where the actions of the FGI against us amount to creeping expropriation, something we ought to have some legal protection against; otherwise, we would not invest there.
As per the remarks on P18 (Route to market):
"It is expected the Federal Government of Iraq ("FGI") will control the marketing of Kurdistan's crude oil once pipeline exports resume"
Not all KRI produced crude will find its way into the export pipeline.
Itsaponzi it’s about time for you to try to make some valid points, albeit on subjects that others have been speculating about on this forum for some considerable time.
If I were you I’d read Belgrano’s comments as they seen to be written from a background of knowledge.
Clearly Iranian influence is behind Iraq’s blatant attempt to ‘control’ Kurdistan, and we must say not without success. However, the notion that Iraq can in the long term export Kirkuk oil directly to Turkey via a long pipeline that runs alongside Kurdistan , and at the same time requires Kurdistan to supply cheap oil on the local market in exchange for budget payments is foolish. Someday someone, to be called a terrorist or Isis for convenience, will blow a large hole or two in that.
Patience still required. In the meantime we, (the long investors and not the pessimists that hope GKP will fail) can only hope that some modest profits will support a higher share price and a little dividend on occasion.
"with iran privately....."
got an inside line into those high level iranian conversations have we dumgrano?
and as for as for iran being "a long way behind israel in military capabilities...." iran wasn't the one that got its **** kicked by over 63 ballistic missiles on critical milint locations, hence losing its threat governance in the wider west asian region. and finally - a modest toy (yes toy) drone strike that was entirely thwarted.
you wan t real psychopathic tendencies, see what pepe escobar is reporting happened after iran hit isr.
back to the shares - anyone noticed how gkp and gen have gently ramped and stayed within small tolerances? (swings between +10/-10 are self-cancelling. 80p and 65p are well behind us. someone/thing is taking these two to a baseline where a significant formal news release will make a big difference to share price.
Erdogan's visit to Erbil underscores the depth of Turkey's relations with the KDP. Erdogan enjoys a strong rapport with the Barzani family, particularly has good chemistry with Nechirvan and, to a lesser extent, Masrour. While Erdogan could have bypassed Erbil, his decision to visit during a sensitive period, as the regional government faces massive pressure from Baghdad, can be interpreted as a show of support for the KRG. This is significant because Turkey, as a regional powerhouse, possesses substantial tools to influence developments in Iraq, especially in the context of Kurdistan.
Erdogan and Barzani had a straightforward deal: oil for security. Erdogan allowed the KRG to export oil in exchange for unprecedented KDP cooperation in the war against the PKK and permitting deeper Turkish penetration in Kurdistan. In return, Erdogan provided the KDP with a channel to sell Kurdistan's oil, granting it unparalleled leverage against Baghdad. Although Turkey has benefited from a very generous economic agreement, the key focus for Turkey has been the PKK, given that it is the country's most critical national security issue in recent decades.
However, this dynamic has upset since last year, as KRG oil no longer flows to Turkey's Ceyhan port. Erdogan's regional foreign policy pivot towards economic development rather than hard geopolitical goals may also indicate that he is unwilling to completely sacrifice the economic opportunities in the other 16 Iraqi provinces for the sake of just two provinces, especially with the Development Road project, which can further cement Turkey's role as the hub where all continental routes connecting Europe with Asia converge.
2. With this contextual background established, two factors in the coming weeks will determine what Erdogan has agreed upon in Baghdad and how it will impact Erbil and the future of the Kurdistan Region. Given that the meeting with Masoud Barzani was behind closed doors and no information is available regarding the content, developments in the following weeks will clarify what has been discussed based on these two factors:
a) Oil Exports: The readiness of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is a crucial consideration. If exports resume via this pipeline, it will be a positive development for Baghdad, as the Iraqi government desperately needs to restart oil exports from Kirkuk to generate revenue. However, this puts additional pressure on the KRG to hand over 400 barrels of oil to be transported via the Kirkuk pipeline, as stipulated in the budget agreement for the continuation of salary payments from Baghdad to the KRG. If this occurs, it could spell the end of the KRG's oil pipeline, which has been a symbol of the region's economic potential and has elevated the KRG's status in the global energy market, translating into geopolitical influence.
b) Military Operations Against the PKK: The scope and extent of military operations against the PKK and the level of support Turkey receives fro
Its double standards that although Bagdad pays small amounts for every barrel produced they do in some locations pay more than what the IOC's are asking for.
This is clearly due to having some "special arrangements in place". The Iraqi oil ministers and politicians are getting obscene backhanders for doing nothing. So talk about an upper $6 per barrel limit is pure rubbish.
The actions of Baghdad in deliberate delay for the past year and for the foreseeable must result in international trucking operations resuming to Turkey. They give them no other choice and by withholding budget cements that resolve.
I do believe tensions in the middle east are cooling somewhat, with Iran privately pretty shocked at how easily Israel stopped a very large attack, and then followed it up with a small counter punch which Iran failed to stop. realisation dawns that they are a long way behind Israel in military capabilities so will need to improve.
Hopefully things will now settle down, although Iran will come back for sure in the future.
Last year we had firm messages that Iraq was going to tweak its laws to allow something near contractual payments to the IOC's to go ahead. That timeline moved into this year, and now nothing, just firstly trying to shift blame to the IOC's, then the KRG.
However its Baghdad thats culled the changes and we do not know why or what factions within Iraq put on pressure to Iraqi parliament do it.
Thank you ponzi for so much devotion to help save our money! So many helpful posts with proper analysis. All stock holders are grateful for your unconditional kindness.
That's it in a nutshell Belgrano (Your not an ex submariner by any chance).
It's pushing the Kurds into illegal exporting, which I assume was set up when they were fighting daesh to keep themselves in the game.
Now that threat has reduced, it looks like Iraq want to cripple them to remove wealth and strength.
Erdogan and family were beneficiary's at the time and after ( I belive).
With the US wanting to reduce irans influences will they help the Kurds or throw them under the bus to strengthen relations with Iraq? Trump pulled out and Bush left them high and dry in Gulf 1.
It imo, hangs on what the US will do?
Rgds Sft
109p and still dropping!! Any takers ??
Quite a strong rebuttal from the Kurdistan gov, pointing out that the rules the Iraq gov are trying to enforce have been constructed from non international recognised standards, antiquated from the Saddam regime.
This is due to the fact that Baghdad don't want to tweak their laws, and don't intend to. Every meeting over the last year has clearly been a waste of time. Seems Turkey backs Erbil in this and Iraq is desperate for Turkish water, so its why they are trying to get another export pipeline commissioned . However Turkey has serious investments in the Kurdish IOC's, so in effect gets a double bite of the cherry. It wants Kurdish crude.
Its also a neat way of delaying the whole issue, which is to stagnate the more western backed Kurdish economy. This will be fully supported by Iranian factions and militant groups within Iraq.
Glad we said it was a glimmer of hope, that was spot on.
……. Response only depends only on what’s in it for those in power.
They must be green with envy when they see how wealthy their colleagues in Erbil have become through playing ‘The Oil Game’ with a region’s natural assets - denying the greater population of a share in the wealth, and bullying defenceless IOCs.
"Epicor said its member companies are ready to resume oil exports under current conditions in the interests of the Iraqi people and their partners.
Meanwhile, a source in the Federal Oil Ministry told Iraqi media that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has officially asked the Federal Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani to allow the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region through the Turkish port.
According to the same source, OPEC has asked the Iraqi oil minister to allow the Kurdistan Regional Government to export 200,000 barrels of oil per day through the Turkish port.
What was the Iraqi oil minister's response to OPEC's request? The source said Hayyan Abdul Ghani has sent the request to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani and is awaiting his response."
Source: hxxps:// www. kurdistan24. net/ckb/story/256626
Anyone know anything about this?
___
🇹🇷 — Rudaw reports that since yesterday, the supply of liquefied gas from Sulaimani to Erbil and Duhok has been fully stopped. A high-ranking KDP official in Erbil asserted, "The obstruction is entirely 100% political in nature."
However, the director of the implementing company, which has close ties to the PUK, refuted the claim of political motives and stated that gas supply to Erbil and Duhok would resume later today.
Source: hxxps:// t. me /AssyriaNewsNetwork/4297
hXXps:// rudaw .net /sorani/business/230420244
Personally, I am pushing back (again) my 'restart of exports' assumption date from the beginning of June until the beginning of September. That brings my model's YE fair value price, based on this and other assumptions including CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT CONTRACT TERMS, to 204p if arrears are fully valued and 151p ex receivables. Discounting these YE numbers to end April (using my 20% discount rate - likely too low) yields 181p and 128p, respectively. Given the enormous uncertainty regarding receivables recovery I'd weight the ex receivables numbers much more than the others. Obviously, any negative adjustments to the current contract terms would have to be factored in once known.