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Absolutely agree with ValueS. They should return half via a buyback.
If YOU were running GKP right now, the very last thing you'd be doing is returning capital to shareholders..
GKP have some difficult terrain to traverse.
And giving up cash to shareholders right now would be a derogation of duty.
Cash conservation in the current climate is king.
Cash amounts to survival and eventual growth, pending decisions outside of GKP's control or remit.
Either way, as shareholders we need to understand its value in the Balance Sheet right now.
You play what's in front of you.
And what's in front of us is change.
We just need to accommodate that proposition without being afraid.
What does it matter what we think they should be doing. The BoD won't be reading this board, that's for sure.
Imo, they should husband the resources/cash until the way ahead becomes clear.
The IOCs are just pawns on a political chessboard, as I am sure the BoD are uncomfortably aware.
It's not sitting there doing nothing if there's another political shift and local sales are curtailed, so prudent to have a war chest, but I agree it would be nice if some of the surplus came shareholders way💰
"Are the Board behaving in shareholders' best interests..."
If the board returns excess cash to the shareholders, then yes! There is no need to keep $86 m + sitting in the bank doing nothing. This is the shareholders money, and I am sure they'll find better use for it.
Best Regards ValueS
Thanks for sharing this, good afternoon.
This for me is the most relevant thing for us to be hearing right now re: arriving at the new settled normal, and gives me grounds to be cautiously optimistic. If the translation is correct, APIKUR have had a meeting - I do wish more context would have been given (I.e. when, after Ergodan?) But also appreciate we shouldn't expect a blow by blow account.
I am encouraged that APIKUR are being included and recognized (my fear was FGI might play hardball and seek to delegitimise them by omission/ignoring, especially after latest FGR comments abo8lut APIKUR "meddling in internal affairs" etc).
Reference to a "coalition" seems ambiguous, might allude to political factions and a coalition of the willing...
I think it is positive. Things are happening in areas which are most relevant to pushing things forward towards the new normal: APIKUR/IOCs/FGI/KRG.
The GKP fundamentals are attractive and remained unchanged (at least to me). Whichever way the PSC falls/is interpreted, I still think there is sufficient time for GKP to realise value - pipeline or not. Market doesn't seem willing to value this below a quid at least for now.
Waiting for AKIPUR update and the all-important GKP RNS...
Wishing you all, all the best.
So we can all assume the pipeline didn't open today ?? Why do people post garbage and get people's hope up !!
Only 17 months to go
You're squealing like a stuck pig, skewered by your own inability to address the key question of whether the Board is behaving responsibly given the current commercial climate.
jjj is right, but it's gong to be a bb of one.
I'm only interested in the larger debate.
Are the Board behaving in shareholders' best interests...
You two need your own board.
Give us your reasons for not believing.
If you do not believe that the contract ends in 2037 as stated in the published PSC (with, as I have detailed in my posting, the possibility of requesting an additional 5-year extension), why on earth should anyone even attempt to start an informed debate with you?
I specifically asked for 'Thoughts?' on my take on the Board's position, as I see it.
You clearly have no thoughts on the matter.
Terrific contribution to a live time issue which will inevitably have an influence on current and future GKP valuation...well done.
The missing "r" was purely a typing mistake.
If you do have the PSC, are you then saying you don't believe what it says?
As far as I can see there is no current debate about the "Board's position in the context of current issues".
First of all, the 'name' is Straycat', not Stracat'.
Second of all, what are you talking about?
Who said I don't have details of the PSC?
Third of all, get involved in the debate about the Board's position in the context of current issues.
That is the point of my original post.
Stracat,
I don't mean to obfuscate, but it seems important to define one of the main contract parameters.
The other main contract parameters (CO and PO determinations) are being jiggled as we speak.
I will post up my thoughts on these matters quite soon.
Why don't you have the PSC? - I downloaded it from the MNR website as soon as it was posted there (had to screen capture every single page due to the manner in which it was presented at the time).
BB,
You're not arguing the main point are you?
Just obfuscating.
So let's say you're right and the contract ends in 2038 (and I don't believe that to be the case)...so what?
Argue the point For Flip's Sake!!!
Other language is available if required...
Straycat,
GKP's PSC expires in 13 years (2012 + 20 + 5 - 24)
To obtain another 5-year extension, to 2042, the company has to put in a REQUEST six months before end of period.
There is absolutely NO guarantee that said request will be granted - it might not even be wanted, who knows?
Your "28 year expiration date" remark is disingenuous...
Can we please do a little analysis in the context of Board responsibility?
As per the FYR and JH’s summary of ITP closure:-
1) ‘…we suspended the ordinary annual dividend’;
2) Ref capex and costs; ‘…with our aggregate run rate expected to remain at or below $6 million in 2024’;
3) Sales resumed in July by trucking to local markets;
4) Sales tracking at 43k bopd @$25 currently;
5) ‘At current local sales levels we are cash generative, with our current low gross production breakeven of c.22,000 bopd providing downside protection’;
6) ‘…GKP is currently owed $151 million net’ (although I reckon that delinquent debt will potentially be compromised for the greater good! N.B. hope I’m wrong);
7) ‘With the resumption of exports and the normalisation of payments, we would consider incremental investments to realise Shaikan’s potential.’;
The key words there are ‘consider’ and ‘incremental’.
And that’s JH’s negotiating position, i.e. these are choices GKP will make whatever the ICG think or say.
Otherwise known as make your mind up because we’ve got shareholders to consider.
Because we’re debt free!!!!
People without money (aka the rest of the APIKUR members) will always be susceptible to financial intimidation.
But not GKP.
Oh yes, and we’re sat on an oil field with a twenty eight year expiration date.
GKP will end up negotiating its own outcome, and I’m good with that.
Thoughts?
Nice to get back into the £1.20,s
Sudanese adviser says oil exports through via Ceyhan will resume soon. A coalition has been formed between Erbil & Baghdad. Both sides are close to an agreement...
APIKUR, "A meeting has been held on the issue, we are waiting for the next meeting to determine when to resume oil exports."
https://twitter.com/john78846295/status/1785407339102675412?s=19
Tomorrow going to be spicy.
Where have you come from Alex, because you're right on my page!
Run the numbers at 50k bopd, or more significantly at 90k bopd, all self-funded, and the debate about delinquent debt disappears into the larger commercial ether. Recovering $151m should happen...obviously.
But it is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. Simply petty cash.
And as for the revised PSC, which will inevitably happen now, it just needs to be managed by the Board to make sure that it suits us humble shareholders.
The Golden chalice is self funded growth.
But it will obviously be a decision taken at GKP level.
Not by a strange amalgam of APIKUR artificial construct, with their own disparate financial needs.
And don't get me started on Myles, their nominated negotiator.
Here's my back-of-the-envelope numbers on GKP: https://i.imgur.com/IMf1kt5.png
Numbers are based on:
- ITP closed the entire 2024, and exports open in 2025.
- Not reaching the level of production in 2024 nor 2025 that GKP indeed reached in March 2023 (+55k bop/d)
- Brent at $80 (almost $90 now)
- Receivables not repaid (amounts to 70% of entire enterprise value of repaid)
Probably looking at 50-70% dividend yield on current share price in a reopening scenario, mirroring historical payouts.
Front-running Putup and Broad: my numbers are _below_ analyst consensus i.e. I've used an additional margin of safety. I've talked to two analysts and no one have it below $200m net profit if exports are open i.e. +60% of market cap.
(Yes, I know cost pool is coming down - but it's still hard to envision anything substantially below the aforementioned numbers the coming years).
Both of you are obviously knowledgeable, but you're also very reluctant to state what you actually forecast yourselves.
I'd say the board would be very humble to learn your numbers in a reopening scenario, and I hope you guys go out of your comfort-zone on this topic. Cheers.
Do our American brethren know of some news?
Creeping up again, 120????, anytime soon, imo
Does seem like Iraq is moving much more towards fundamentalism, with new laws proclaimed which would by western standards seem an outrage and would cause uproar if introduced here.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-criminalises-same-sex-relationships-with-maximum-15-years-prison-2024-04-27/
Bit of a shame as it makes it harder to do business with them. Its been frowned on in many Arab countries for years but fallen short of imprisonment.