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Tep a quote from you. Gas prices have been at historic lows since 2023? You may need to rethink that one.
Gas prices have been at historic lows since the start of 2023 and during this time Centrica have recorded operating profit at 2B or EPS of 25.8p.
What will drive share price is the dividend policy. I expect it to be raised for final year to a minimum 2.66p. CEO clearly stated a "Progressive dividend policy trending to 2x earnings cover over time" Current dividend cover is approximately 8 times earnings.
I agree, but 2bn a year is unlikely. 2025 onwards might be 800m to 1.5bn or higher if gas goes nuts again. Rough would have made 100s millions now with spread low only mid 10s of millions. Like I say still looks cheapish but time will tell.
The share price should be valued in 2 pound region. Anyone who says otherwise is talking bo**ocks. With 2bn ebitda and a 200p share price, p/e is 5 based on current market float including those shares buy backs held in the treasury still. industry is currently 8 on average. They keep the share price down to ensure optimum buyback of shares imo. But the stock is still in recovery phase and the market will want to see more evidence that CNA is back on its feet.
Momentum to the downside, could see high 1.30s. Rough value is lower as spread have collapsed, plus forward curve for gas down with high inventory in Europe and US. So with a large cash position, equity well hedged for next year it looks like it's getting into cheap territory. If commodity prices fall this will drag on the share price. So 2025 plus earnings are unknown. Think the mcap should be 7.5 to 9.5bn. Medium term it's a hold especially as next year should be £2bn plus profit
Well they are not short of cash. I was and still am expecting higher highs with the double share buy back. Once whatever news that ii short is waiting for has passed, I think this will have a nice run.
As ever, timing is everything.
It’s a difficult one, I feel Centrica are 20% undervalued but being held down but with a new government around the corner it could get worse
I am in two minds to sell half my holdings and invest in good old BT who’s SP goes exdividend at end of December .
😁
Knowing my luck, some news will drop & this will spike to £1.80 before Christmas lol
I have no idea. But it's currently at 1.10% up from 0.5% a few months ago. I'm guessing it's a lot more than I have invested.
I thought I timed my trade pretty well & that I would ride it through until Q1. However a few days after I got in, I saw they increased their short, so I got out at a very small loss.
Whether they are being unscrupulous or maybe they're predicting the profits will be much lower than last years, given the price of gas. Or whether this has something to do with the Smart Meter missed targets or even a Gas storage issue. It made me decide to not hold the stock.
I'm just gonna wait for a cheaper boat.
Very prudent, what is the value of the short?
That ii has been continually increasing their short, that suggests to me that they know something the market doesn't.
Until that short comes off, I'm sitting on the sidelines.
Why has this stalled again?
A lot of factors in the mix, on the positive side Rough storage double the capacity compared to last year, wholesale price spike last year way over current wholesale prices and the consumer price cap is being raised again in January. Working on the basis that if the wholesale price spike last year did not trash the finances then there is considerable resilience in their supply strategies.
They don't hedge cold weather, if the extra gas they purchase for cold snap is below the cap then all good if above cap it's bad. So more gas sales does not necessarily give more profit.
The big picture is far more important. This company was priced down to basically be gone pretty much as it exists today within a few years thanks to the fanciful notion of a green energy transition. Heating requires huge amounts of reliable energy. The penny is dropping that wind and solar are not going to do it and never were (ask any half knowledgeable engineer not tied to the Net Zero boondoggle and they will tell you the same. It will take decades and money to be made all along the way.
Nothing like a cold weather snap to get gas usage up and possible higher profits and hopefully a higher dividend .
Afraid your theory is wrong today OWLS. This share is struggling to get off the ground whatever the FTSE is.
This tends to go against the FTSE, always helps on a bad FTSE day like today. With a beta of 0.59 it is a good defensive stock.
Kiwi, as I understand it the cost to the consumer at an individual level is nothing BUT the whole program is costing hundereds of millions and we are collectively paying. IMV they are useless because there is no variation in tariff to justify their use , save the limited national gris 'trial'. Furthermore not all smart meters work with all suppliers. What the country needed but did not get was a market with energy prices varying throughout the day to encorage smart use of energy when cheap and lower usage when expensive , What we got was an expensive whit elephant and totally missed the opportunities a smart grid could offer. I shall not be having one and contributing to the debacle until the market is reformed.
The average cost of a smart meter is added into your energy bill the same way as a standard meter is, averaging at around £30-70 per household, per month.
However, the price can differ depending on the size of the house and how much gas and electricity gets used, as well as the specific energy company, type of smart meter and the accessibility of your home.
The government has encouraged all UK energy suppliers to roll out smart meters into households by 2024, hence the low installation costs.
Has risen, but this has fallen. Not a good sign. I notice it has been trending with the ftse recently.
Looks like we may start to move north again. Looking at wholesale gas prices they are currently dropping a fair amount.
My electric company keeps sending letters to change to a smart meter stating the old meter is out of date. does any body know how much cost is added to energy bills to cover cost of smart meters ? I’m sure if these company’s offered reduction in bills for these costs more people would change to a smart meter, at least I would.