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Cheers Fatprofits, you have my current view, plus lots of good debate with Tep raised some interesting points re value of the company. Will post when my view changes or if asked a direct question. Best regards.
Oh, final comment, I can see that my posts, while trying to be I formative with openness and honesty can cause a trigger of emotion as a reaction. I will therefore not be posting anymore on this board. I will keep an eye on it and if anyone wants my view just ask. Good luck to all CNA holders.
Ps. Just went long at a tad over 127. Like i said think this will range trade from mid 120s to mid 130s. I'm just annoyed I didn't go long at the end of the retracement. Falling gas prices at the time put me off.
Tep, I not a shorter, my weakness is that I hate shorting. My portfolio is always long, I was looking to buy at 142 but realised that a head and shoulders had formed. I don't do technicals but one thing I have learned is that I never ignore a head and shoulders or inverse head a shoulders pattern. If you google it it's one of the most reliable indicators. I got out of my short for small beer. Like I said in an earlier post the retracement from the head and shoulders is complete so this share can now stabilise and hopefully move up. Investing / trading is about timing an entry. I have longed this share many times over the past 2 years and shorted it once for small beer. I wish everyone who longs far more luck, than those who short.
Tep, not in CNA at the moment. My last play was a short when I saw the head and shoulders. As far as a takeover I can't see it. SSE sold its retail book as little value long term. Assets are what companies value and customers who can leave at any moment are not that appealing. Having sold their oil portfolio it makes it even less attractive. But never say never as a big stack of cash is a pleasing thing to own.
Tep, if you don't mind me asking what sp are you looking for? I'm happy for a mind your own business reply if that suits.
I don't pay for anyone's advice. Centrica past earnings are indeed large compared to mcap, but future earnings, especially 2025 will be far lower driving a multiple of 8 or 9. Multiples are never that large unless massive growth is presumed, with CNA, it's the opposite. Just look at multiples for UK banks.
5p shift is small beer in terms of sentiment. I see this ranging trading for now. Maybe 125 to 135. Gas prices usually trade higher in summer as traders minds are focused on the upcoming winter so that might help support the sp. Unless a transformational deal, takeover (unlikely) or major rebound in energy prices occur then it could break out. It's certainly not worth playing the short side but upside is for now limited.
Jmax, agree director buys mean nothing, even the opposite of what most investors think. Shares with low liquiry need events to create volume buys or sells. If you buy bought this share at 35 or 40 or 45 chances are you will sell it at break even or very little profit. This creates liquiry pools. Ps anuyone know off hand tullows effective tax rate? When oil goes to 110 in 3 months it will certainly boost revenue.
Whenwver I see media outlets say. Here's why I'm not buying lloyds. Or better investments out there, or car finance is too big a risk, I know it's a good time to buy or hold. When the opposite happens I know it's going down!
Tep, the problem is where to invest. Oil will probably remain strong as its a global market. Power prices in the UK will come under pressure from increasing renewable plus power storage plays. Many new evs with feature ability to reverse power you home. Power generation used to have a high mix of gas fired stations. These requiremment are dwindling so gas demand is reducing. So no point investing in gas assets. UK gas storage makes money from the summer winter spread. That has now collapsed back to where it was when CNA said is was uneconomic to run. For sure they may invest heavily in hydrogen but that right now is a medium to long term play. The good news for the bulls is that the retracement from the head and shoulders is complete. So it should range trade for a while. Ps retails customers are a pain, little margin and huge balancing risks, especially with a price cap mechanism.
So the buyback at current prices would take out 6-7 percent of the company. So next year the dividend might go up 7% but in reality it's flat due the buy back. It's a clever way of showing an increasing dividend without paying more out.
The problem for CNA is growing the business. The sale of Direct energy was a good call as that was undervalued by city analysts. The sale of oil assets will probably end up being a mistake. It's difficult for CNA executives to get their head round macros and not focus on upstream UK gas and european green power. Fundamentals suggest gas and power assets are not a good bet, just got lucky short term with geo political stuff. Plus £100ms invested in reopening rough is going to be wasted money.
He is no conn. The first time I heard the conn man speak at an internal conference my colleague and I looked at each other in disbelief. It takes a while for all CEOs of centrica to realise that the value is in buying assets when cheap and waiting for the up cycle. This share only rallies when commodity prices rally. Core business is relatively static.
Low dividend is going to hurt this share. £600m going to investments is ok, but it's for the future not now. Should reach the bottom soon. Maybe break 120 then slowly rise.
Lloyd's know what the exposure is to car finance. A good analyst with spread sheet could work it out in a few weeks. But it makes a great story to drum up fear and cause alot of private investors to sell up. Year end target 55 to 60p.
Live UK gas prices can be found on ice. Just Google ice nbp data.
People dont regularly post on boards they are not invested in. Someone got burned heavily on this share and hates it because of this. They now trade to make small sums to offset some of their huge losses. Seeing as he is a holder I'm more than happy to suffer his posts. They make me chuckle. Good luck to all holders, yes that includes you.
Spot on. Many of these shares bought back will go to trader bonuses. I'd like the board to explain the benefits to shareholders of recent buy back. Buy backs should be voted on at agms. If not sanctioned then special divi.
I'd rather 1bn buy back and increased divi. ? If they keep on at this rate eventually there will only be 100 shares remaining and they will still be under 45p!