The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I'd rather 1bn buy back and increased divi. ? If they keep on at this rate eventually there will only be 100 shares remaining and they will still be under 45p!
Given gas prices keep falling we can now see a steady move south. Fair value. 6 times 800m they say from continuing ops. So 4.8bn risked by 30% to 3.4bn. Plus 2.4 cash. Gives 5.8bn. This ignores upstream so add 0.75bnn. So 6.5bn is roughly fair value. Will buy when gas prices stabilise and mcap gets in the low 6s or high 5bn.
Reuters story on the global storage lizards needing to refill inventory. World banks aren't keen to cut rates, why? Cos when inflation hits 2% oil is going to rally way above $100bbl. They know it already. Only way to keep the EV and many western car companies alive. DYOR.
You are right, countries don't coordinate this. Traders do. I'm saying no more as you obviously have a different opinion to me and we can agree to disagree. Cheers
Great, can you tell me where to find Chinas oil inventory and historical withdraws and injections.
Appreciate your assistance.
Cheers
Storage is the answer. Take china, say daily demand is 20mbl. Say they have full storage st 750mbls. If they withdraw 2mbl a day for 150 days they only need to purchase 18mbls a day for said days. Reports come out demand in China is soft and prices go down. Then when it's low you buy the whole forward curve. Turn storage into inject mode. You now heed to buy 20mbls a day rather than 18, plus if you inject into storage at 2mbls a day for 150 days that's a 4mbls swing. If every country did this plus tankers can be used to store then you can see how easy it is to make it look over/ under supplied. Your welcome.
Oil supply demand fundamentals can be manipulated to the tune of 4million bbl a day. Easy to make things look bullish or bearish in a very short time frame. Could easily see a rapid tightening in the next few months.
Oil has to stay high or Evs are dead ducks. The powers that be need to get the public to buy new and more importantly second had evs. I see oil above $100bbl within months. Also why has buffet continually bought into occidental. I guess he isn't bearish oil prices!
Yes, I can see that as a scenario. But given that forward spreads are now where they were when centrica closed rough and outright prices are lower I'm not ruling out this going into 120 territory. I hope I'm wrong as I will have bought in at low 1. 30s! Good luck all!
Anyone have any technicals experience? Have we just seen a head and shoulder?
So, we have positives of good results last year and decent results probably this year, mainly due to hedging their equity gas. The bad news is that the forward curve for gas and spreads will knock future results significantly. However the future is unknown and prices could rise. Right now we sit just above the 200d moving average. I will look at making a purchase if the price goes 8% below the 200d average. Not much cheer here unless results and guidance is really good. Also warm weather next week might drag on the price.
Yes, they have cut many energy stocks. Their analyst is probably bearish commodity prices. Time will tell on that one!
Just because an ii investor is short CNA does not necessarily mean they are bearish the stock. They might have a spread book. Ie they believe another stock will out ferform centrica. So if they sell £30m of CNA and buy £30 of stock x. If they both go up but stock x goes up faster than CNA then they win. Likewise if both stocks fall but CNA falls faster they win.
Tep a quote from you. Gas prices have been at historic lows since 2023? You may need to rethink that one.
I agree, but 2bn a year is unlikely. 2025 onwards might be 800m to 1.5bn or higher if gas goes nuts again. Rough would have made 100s millions now with spread low only mid 10s of millions. Like I say still looks cheapish but time will tell.
Momentum to the downside, could see high 1.30s. Rough value is lower as spread have collapsed, plus forward curve for gas down with high inventory in Europe and US. So with a large cash position, equity well hedged for next year it looks like it's getting into cheap territory. If commodity prices fall this will drag on the share price. So 2025 plus earnings are unknown. Think the mcap should be 7.5 to 9.5bn. Medium term it's a hold especially as next year should be £2bn plus profit
They don't hedge cold weather, if the extra gas they purchase for cold snap is below the cap then all good if above cap it's bad. So more gas sales does not necessarily give more profit.
Is tesla a great company? Yes. That is good news, however great companies can become grossly over valued, pushed there by investors who got in early. I note recent bear scenarios of $130. I believe this is the stop level of many and if it gets there will crumble to $85-95. I hope this does not happen as I have friends heavily invested but in my view its a probable outcome
They will be making large cash from their injections into rough. This should cancel out alot of the warm weather hit in the retail business.
Updated the super forecasting tool. Results. Drip feed into cyclicals, short term stay away from energy. Predicts expected interest rate to be lower than currently forecast by the banks. Time to accelerate buying when nord stream starts delivering gas to Europe. Ps range of the model also includes scenarios that contain doom.!