Member Info for ZYX098

Hi LTT,

RBL is certainly an option - although at that stage couldn't it mean RKH is potentially borrowing more than it's cash flow could payback, as 85% has to go to paying off the Navitas loan (plus the $350 Million in Phase 1 financing)?

But the big question is; will we last long enough without being taken over to have that option?!

I certainly hope we don't get taken out before 1st Oil, as that will no doubt have a positive effect on the share price.

As will the price of oil.

I agree there may be a short dip when (if...) the peace deal is done.

But there has been so much structural damage been done to facilities, plus the difficulties in starting up so many fields that have been shut in, plus the need for Countries to replenish (and increase?) their reserve stockpiles, I can't see the oil price returning to pre-war levels for a good 2 - 3 years.

https://jpt.spe.org/war-damage-reshapes-global-energy-supply-chains-and-project-economics?utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FO-04-21-2026&utm_content=httpsjptspeorgwardamagereshapesglobalenergysupplychainsandprojecteconomics&mkt_tok=ODMzLUxMVC0wODcAAAGhVAxfg8Wcw0Wirn50PxkE2gQAwWE46E0RfsyIkX-7WieVHiMeSc-pCK75PWngG4Igha1viBgtAg8NcEAYmGmrnnI9aDAsRW1TaPfTtYKlV-0HFA

Hi Citizen TS,

Sorry, but Isobel really is nowhere on the radar of Navitas.

Isobel is not even mentioned on the latest NASI report on potential reserves (although Liz is).

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NSAI-Navitas-Sea-Lion-ISA-Report-as-of-12.31.2025.pdf

There are doubts about the permeability of the Isobel sand package - it's not being developed in the SL area and we know that the Well didn't kick until they were 30% of the way through the target (i.e. the top 30% has limited permeability).

Nomalkanymore (aka Marlon Monkey) has said that Isobel needs more seismic shot over it to better define the structure itself and also any faulting.

It would then need a 4 - 6 Well Appraisal program - including mobilising a well testing package - before any potential development decision could be made.

So, the next thing to happen on Isobel needs to be a seismic shoot, which obviously then needs to be processed, incorporated into the current data set and then interpreted before any new drilling locations could be selected.

Meanwhile, there are over 20 prospects on PL032/PL004b/PL004c alone that need exploration/appraisal wells on them, with another dozen or so on PL001.

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NSAI-Navitas-PL001-Potential-Acquisition-ISA-Report-as-of-12.31.2025.pdf

Navitas have said they will not commit to SL Phase 2 until they have some production data from Phase 1 to go on.

Presuming that they purchase some of the really long lead items ahead of any Phase 2 FID decision (as they did for Phase 1), that still leaves a gap of around 12 months to be filled for the Rig.

This would free her up for a campaign of c. 10 Exploration / Appraisal Wells on the SL acreage and PL001.

Unfortunately RKH just don't have the cash for a program on the SL acreage, so any new partner would also have to buy out some or all of RKH to allow such a program to go ahead.

As for using the Endeavour on PL001, there is no doubt language in her contract (and that of the other service Companies) which would allow her to do so.

However, I suspect the PL001 group won't want to do much more than 2 - 3 Wells without also shooting more seismic.

In the longer term, there is little doubt that a 2nd Rig will be needed in the NFB with all the potential work that is lined up. But until RKH are bought out and there is more clarity on PL001 going forward, that's not going to happen for several years.

Yes, I was referring to the $350 Million loan, as any new SL entrant would have the blessing of Navitas, so that part of the RKH financing should not be an issue.

Hi Mirasol,

No, I'm sure there are a lot of discussions going on 'behind the scenes". Completely normal in the circumstances.

I don't think it's a surprise that the announcements didn't come until they'd had a chance to sound out the new FIG on their views.

I agree that the FIG will be happy to see the back of the 'legacy' Operators who have been down there for many years, but lack the finances to actually do anything themselves - although hopefully not RKH until after 1st Oil!

In that respect, the legislation they passed last year to consolidate all the licenses under the same legislation umbrella gives them the opportunity to 'clean house' when the licences all come up for relinquishment at the end of the year.

Link to the update;

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/eco-atlantic-oil-gas-npv-di---eco/jhi-acquisition-final-court-order-obtained/9572058

In practical terms, the PL001 license group (irrespective of it's structure changing) have run out of time to do anything before the license runs out in Dec this year.

There was a potential window of opportunity to do a Well before the license period ended, by bringing down the Endeavour a little earlier and doing a Well before moving onto SL Development drilling.

However, the process of getting the PL001 license holders reorganised, plus the supply chain disruptions cause by the Iran war have meant that the window has now closed.

On the positive side, it shows that the FIG are being pragmatic about considering a request to extend a license, when the request has a defined work program attached with it.

Having 1 - 2 Wells on PL001 in their back pocket is no bad thing for the SL group either.

It gives some flexibility if they run into issues during the development drilling that mean that additional equipment / materials / chemicals need to be mobilised. They can shift over to drill on PL001 while waiting, rather than potentially having the Rig on Standby.

That's a very odd period of time, as it doesn't tie in with the FDP for SL and there's potential for production in the area for decades to come.

Being asked to bid on the 'lifetime of a project' when nobody knows what that will be is also very odd. But, on the other hand, as I've said before, the Navitas Contracts Dept do not have a good reputation in ABZ.

Normally any upgrade / refurb work is either paid for as a lump sum when the work is done, or added onto the day rate. But in the latter case, it's usually a 3 or 5 yr payout profile, not 12.

As others have mentioned, there will be break or extension clauses in the contract to cover - for example - it being replaced on SL by a larger FPSO (as is the plan) and then going to....PL001?

Given the age of the Aoka Mizu and that she'll have spent her entire life in the West of Shetlands and NFB environments, I wonder if the 12yrs is a back stop by which she'll have reached the end of her fatigue life?

Don't forget that RKH are carrying those blocks at zero value on the books, and that they'll have to relinquish them at the end of this year anyway - so nothing doing there.

I suspect that the loan repayment terms are what Sam is referring too, as everything else appears to have been resolved.

So either the newcomer would have to agree to the same T's and C's, or effectively 'buy out' the loan, which would mean they'll need to stump up over $350 Million up front just for the development costs. Either way, not a particularly attractive deal in a province that has no production history to go on.

Bear in mind that RKH are carrying the SFB blocks on the books at zero value and in any case, the licenses (as do all FI licenses) expire at the end of this year.

That's why - brutal as it may seem - BOR are going to lose their licenses too.

From their last raise, they have enough cash to "keep the lights on" until the end of the year.

It's far too late for a farm in, as anyone interested would simply wait for BOR to go under (or give up the licenses), then go to the FIG and make an application for the block.

As Mirasol rightly points out, BOR have been trying to get someone to farm in for several years and have had no interest.

The RNS that BOR issued when the SL FID was announced amounted to little more than putting out the begging bowl.

While the blocks do look interesting and are covered by very good quality seismic, for posters to claim reserves of over a Billion BOE over several structures on the basis of a single Well that - and I cannot emphasise this enough - was never tested is simply fantasy.

Whoever eventually goes down there will need very deep pockets - not much change from $150 Million per Well).

For any development they'll need to commission an FNLG FPSO specifically for those weather conditions too, so that's another $1.25 Billion.

Given the huge gas fields off East Africa which are much easier and cheaper (but still expensive!) to develop, I cannot see anyone going into the SFB for many years to come.

I'm sure that the FIG will want any deals associated with PL001 to be done sequentially, completing each before moving on to the next step.

That Navitas is lining up to ultimately be the Operator for PL001 is irrelevant to the FIG - it's two completely different license groups.

Similarly for any partner Navitas is looking to bring in.

Irrespective of if the new partner farms into SL and PL001 at the same time, they will still be treated as two separate transactions.

Navitas bringing a partner into SL will do nothing to accelerate any Exploration/Appraisal program on SL, as they will still be hamstrung by RKH and our lack of ready cash to do so - unless RKH give up a % of the SL license as well.

As Navitas have been touting a farm in for at least a couple of years, I'm thinking that - despite the current political situation - Companies are unwilling to spend big $$$'s on a new province until they have some production data to go by.

In that respect, I still feel that the most likely time for us to be taken out is 3 - 6 months after 1st oil.

Mirasol is correct, the cash repayments plus any additional spend on SL Exploration / Appraisal means that RKH won't be in a position to pay serious dividends for at least a couple of years after 1st oil.

As has been explained before, Isobel is nowhere on the radar of Navitas and in any case, it's not a "one and done" appraisal. At the least it will need new seismic and 4-6 Wells to appraise properly.

Navitas have shown with the announcement of the deepening of a development well (has to be the gas injector) to the Gwendoline prospect, their project progression plan is to target those structures close to SL that can be tied back into the FPSO relatively quickly and cheaply.

The Endeavour is not that long out of the shipyard having undergone maintenance / refurb / refit work and she's been hot stacked ever since.

I'm willing to bet that her 5yr recertification work was done during that time and if they wish to 'reset the clock', it'll not be much more than rechecking the paperwork and signing off.

As she has been 'hot-stacked', getting her ready for starting up won't take too long either.

Irrespective, Navitas will no doubt put her through the normal Rig acceptance inspection & tests before she comes on contract.

The Operator generally doesn't announce the day-rate, but it's common for the Rig Contractor to either give the day rate, or a contract value for a certain number of days so the approximate day rate can be worked out.

The Mob Fee is probably a 'lump sum' basis - which usually is pretty close to the number of days x the day-rate anyway - plus the cost of any upgrades if not rolled into the day-rate.

Not sure where she is at the moment, but the next piece of news will likely be that the Heavy Lift Vessel has been mobilised to pick her up.

Then, say, 4 days to load and secure the sea fastenings, around 30 days down to the FI where they'll go into sheltered water to off load her. That's weather dependent (swell & wave heights, wind & tide speeds), so could take several days.

Another couple of days to load her up with drilling supplies, then tow up to location and anchor up (3 - 4 days) and off we go!

The Iran War has played havoc across the entire supply chain, so although Navitas haven't announced any slippage, I would not be surprised at all if mobilisation does slip a couple of months.

I suspect they were looking at a delay anyway, as someone (probably Mogger!) posted a link where they'd only recently put in a planning application to start building the supply base and in reality, they should be well into the actual construction of it.

Originally I'd thought that they'd do 1 - 2 Exploration Wells on PL001 first, but the slippage puts them in an awkward position time-wise, as the PL001 license expires (as do all FI licenses) at the end of this year.

No doubt they'll be negotiating an extension to PL001 with the FIG, on the basis that they'll use the Endeavour to drill at least one Well in the relatively near future.

It would actually be advantageous to the SL project to have that option available, as then if there are any problems with equipment / materials supply for the lower sections, they could nip over to PL001, drill a Well and come back to SL a month later.

The Well program for an Exploration Well will be very similar, although the advantage of doing an Exploration Well is that it uses Water Based mud all the way - the Development Wells will swap to SOBM for the lower hole sections.

TH2,

"Factually"??

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/010/692/You_Keep_Using_That_Word_meme_banner.jpg

You said you weren't coming back.

So yet another statement to add to the long list of things that you've said which aren't true.

Hmmm.

Both your posts have two upvotes, despite being complete nonsense.

So that's two of your other ID's that you didn't cancel.

They have no income and the only asset theoretically worth anything is HH.

Leases (if they even signed them) on a couple of farmers fields in Dorset and Yorkshire aren't worth the paper they are written on.

They have two over paid BoD members salaries to cover and although they have P&A'd BB-1, UKOG have not said anything about the site being restored.

Given their past history of very carefully wording RNS's, it's a safe bet that they haven't done this yet, so that's a liability that needs to be met - as does the P&A and site restoration of HH.

So how will UKOG raise more money?

They'll get nothing from the Govt for their LDES projects (they don't even meet the criteria required to be able to submit a bid).

Trying to issue more confetti now would be a complete flop.

But, they are trying to get approval to restart production at HH from SCC.

Now, if the HH production was actually profitable, they'd have been pounding down the doors at SCC to get production restarted as soon as possible after the absurd Supreme Court decision, not waiting for well over a year to do so.

So what are they hoping for?

We know that production at HH was dominated by a small layer of high permeability within the sandstone.

It was this layer along which edge water was being channeled, leading to early water breakthrough and resulting in the increasing water cut along with decreasing oil production (neither of which were ever announced by UKOG).

Now, after being shut in for so long, the rest of the sandstone around the perforations will likely have recovered back to it's original reservoir pressure, by oil slowly migrating towards the lower pressure around the perforations.

As a result, when (if!) they open up the Well to production again, they'll get a burst of what's called 'flush production', which will initially produce an artificially high oil flow rate for a short period of time - it will fall rapidly back to normal after a few days.

This 'flush production' was what allowed them to issue RNS's quoting (very carefully!) such high flow rates during testing and initial production.

So my bet is that's what they'll try and do again.

Presuming they get permission from SCC (and overcome all the legal challenges that will no doubt be coming), they'll open up HH-1, issue a very carefully worded RNS noting "extremely good flow rates", promptly followed by an RNS announcing another confetti issue in combination with a 100:1 share consolidation..

Which will no doubt be enough to keep SS and KB in the salaries they are raking in for a few more months.

If permission s given to open up HH for production again, if I was SCC then I'd put a condition on production resumption that all funds raised from production up to the value of £2.5 Million are placed into an escrow account. This money would be used to fund the P&A of both Wells, decommissioning of the site and site restoration.

The amount that Kris Bone is getting paid is well above market rate for what he brings to the table experience wise and his responsibilities.

SS was laughing all the way to the bank.

KB even more so.

Antc,

You can beat your chest and try to big up your credentials all you want - you are still wrong.

I agree Mirasol.

I recall the talk when Johnstone was discovered that it was a lot of stacked, thin, poor quality sands.

It's not even mentioned on the latest NSAI report published by Navitas.

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NSAI-Navitas-Sea-Lion-ISA-Report-as-of-12.31.2025.pdf

It does mention Liz, but the volumes currently assigned wouldn't be worth developing with an FLNG FPSO.

LTT is correct, produced gas will be reinjected through the gas disposal Well (which is being deepened first to test Gwendoline).

That it's classified as a gas disposal Well indicates that SL Crude has a low GOR and there isn't enough gas to use for pressure maintenance.

That's why the development includes water injectors to help maintain reservoir pressure.

If there was sufficient gas discovered in the SL / PL001 area to justify development, the cost of running a pipeline to shore and building a gas plant would be extraordinary.

An FNLG FPSO, even at c. $1.25 Billion, would likely be cheaper and more acceptable to the FIG.

As for FI power, it appears that they are going down the wind farm route.

Hi Ninetails,

Hope you are still gainfully employed?

I saw a large P&A contract for Forties had been awarded, so I guess the writing is very definitely on the wall?

Ant

You've "been told that none of the BOD or Stephen Scamderson have bought ANY shares in UKOG".

You don't have to be told - it's a matter of record!

The only one who voluntarily bought UKOG shares was KM when he first came on board. I imagine he's 99.9% down by now - if he's kept them.

Trish,

Adrian is (was) a poster who appeared on this board under multiple aliases.

His usual form was to make absurd claims (either pro or anti, depending upon his holdings in UKOG at the time) and then abuse posters who dared to point out where the giant errors in his claims were.

His posts had a distinct syntax, which meant that he could be identified within a couple of posts every time he appeared under a new ID.

Your syntax is nothing like his, so you are not Adrian, despite what Antc1781 keeps saying.

But there is no hope for UKOG - and there is no Govt funding for H2 storage even if UKOG had a viable project - which they don't.

Good luck in the Premiership Sky Blue!

Unfortunately we are heading in the other direction (Leicester).

Hi RG27,

With the current shut down of the Straits of Hormuz, I expect to see some from of diesel rationing in less than 4 weeks.

This would either be demand destruction by price, or the Govt physically removing some from the market to preserve stocks for use by the railways & road transportation, the emergency services and the armed forces.

Petrol would be around 2 weeks later.

In that respect, what we have seen in terms of airlines pro-actively cancelling flights because of the cost / availability of jet fuel is essentially the "canary in the coal mine".

I don't see any change to the amount of Ethanol in the fuel blends, as that would need a wholesale change in the supply chain from processing to pump and would take many months to plan and implement. Plus the cost of Ethanol will increase as the US uses food grain and the price of fertilizer is already going up. Europe normally uses palm oil from SE Asia for it's Ethanol feed stock, but same problem.

Even if the Strait open up immediately, it would still take the first tankers 45 days to reach Europe - but I expect everything leaving the Strait to head East, as the SE Asia nations will pay a premium as they need to alleviate the severe shortages they are already seeing.

This is why LNG tankers currently loading in the Gulf of Mexico are heading to SE Asia, not Europe.

Hi CO2,

I'm afraid that's not a valid analysis from a couple of perspectives.

The main one is that the current difference between Brent and the spot market (one cargo went for $147/bbl last week - which will be cheap if this drags on much longer) is purely down to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (or Strait of Trump as he called it a couple of weeks ago...).

The normal spread between spot and Brent is a couple of $ either way - it's not valid to presume that that differential will be still there come 1st Oil on SL.

The other is that because of the waxy nature of SL crude, the normal modus operandi would be for the majority to be sold under a long term contract with a specific Refinery. Either at a fixed price (i.e. effectively hedging) or at a set discount to a benchmark crude (which may or may not be Brent) or a combination of both.

The waxy nature of the crude means that transport and processing costs are higher.

The tanker has to have heated tanks to prevent the oil solidifying during transport and it restricts the number of refineries that can process it, as not all refineries can cope with a waxy crude (again, the storage tanks need to be heated, the processing needs to be kept above the pour point and may also require the use of specialty chemicals).

Because of these factors, the discount for SL crude will be on the high side of medium sweet.

So it's still very saleable, as the entire chain for producing, transporting and refining a waxy crude is well understood. But it's not correct to presume that after production "It behaves like a standard medium crude stream in the market".