Member Info for ZYX098

Certainly an option.

Turkey or one of the Chinese yards are other options.

Either way, if the FPSO does have to go for refit elsewhere, there are bound to be cost and schedule implications.

If the refit yard does have to be changed, my concern would be how long it would take Navitas to re-negotiate the contract with BlueWater.

I mentioned many Moons ago that their Contracts Dept does not have a good reputation, and if they draw out negotiations over minutiae instead of looking at the big picture (Rig in the FI costing around $1 Million pd, plus loss of NPV due to delaying 1st Oil), then it could seriously hurt us as we have limited financial headroom for cost/schedule delays.

Honestly can't see anyone making a run for us until after 1st Oil, as SL is the only asset we've got.

If it was a field in a known basin with decent production history, then yes.

But first development in a frontier area?

I think any potential buyer will be cautious - they won't want to pick up $400+ Million in cost exposure without a better feel for the return they'll get on their investment.

I suspect that's the reason that Navitas have been unable to get another Company to farm in yet, despite trying for quite a while.

After 1st oil, I hope that Sam would wait until we have done more appraisal drilling and so proved up more reserves before beginning to search for potential suitors.

But that also depends on his (and the rest of the Boards) Retirement plans, as that's not going to be until late 2029 at the earliest.

I agree that many Countries will be re-evaluating their energy seciruty given current developments.

Sadly, that won't include the UK as long as Mad Ed is in charge of Energy and Rachel from Customer Services is Chancellor.

Hi JDPM,

I'd wait until Navitas produce their own reserves report (or the English translation of the one they've already produced) , as there's nothing concrete I've been able to find before that was backed up by hard data.

Also, the PL001 potential value will depend on when some Exploration drilling actually takes place.

As I said a while back, my thought is that Navitas will mobilse the Endeavour down to the FI sooner rather than later, to get 1 - 2 Wells in on PL001 before she is fully occupied with the SL work.

But having said that, Navitas are also in negotiation with the FI to get a 5 yr license extension on the basis of at least one commitment Well on PL001.

So they could equally be thinking about not drilling on PL001 until the development work on SL has been completed.

Presuming the oil is of similar quality to SL (i.e. waxy), then it would need it's own FPSO as the distance is too great to tie-back to the SL FPSO(s) - which in any case will hopefully be fully occupied servicing the SL production.

Rusty50,

Don't bother engaging with Antc1781.

It's Noswej back under a different ID, just doing what he always does - spamming the board daily with multiple comments all saying the same thing, trying to ragebait the Ramptastic crew as he has nothing better to do.

Just ignore him and he'll go away sooner or later.

Even the Realists quickly get sick and tired of his flooding the board with essentially the same post over and over and over and over again.

Why are posters claiming it's fake news or AI generated?

It took 30 seconds to go to Companies House and check that the information is correct.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05299925/filing-history

Finalisation of the original announcement back in mid-January.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ECO/navitas-signs-farm-in-for-north-falklands-licence/17482606

Neither Argos of JHI appear to have issued a formal reserves report on what they think PL001 holds.

All I could find on the JHI website is this statement;

********************

Our technical team has reviewed more than 50 prospects on proprietary 3D seismic data with an estimated 3.1 billion bbl of prospective recoverable resource and an upside of more than 10 billion barrels

**********************

The Navitas report indicates 2C reserves of 3.719 Billion bbls (it calls them "Proven & Probable" which technically is 2P, not 2C which is what they should be at this stage).

So depending upon what JHI mean by "prospective recoverable resource", it could mean an increase of 20% in prospective reserves.

It's for the JHI block, not SL.

Thanks TNM.

Very good article.

Shows up the problem that for the last few years the Majors have effectively been adding reserves by M&A and not drilling. But the 'minors' haven't been drilling that much either, so they'll now have to go out and actually find more reserves themselves.

I wonder how much of the increase in buy backs are Companies repurchasing the share issues they made during the pandemic to keep their heads above water?

FWIW, both very speculative;

Reconnaissance Energy Africa are just mobilising the test equipment for their Namibia discovery. It's a multi zone program due to start this month and - if successful - will be transformational for not only their share price, but the basin as well.

80 Mile have farmed into the Jameson Land acreage in Greenland. The last major piece was the logistics, for which the contract has now been signed. So should be a two Well Exploration program starting in Q3 or Q4 this year.

Yes - it's essentially an update of their article in late January with the Bluewater details added as per Godder's Euronext text.

Hi LTT,

It wouldn't surprise me if the Rig heads down even earlier than that, as I feel that Navitas will want to use it to drill 1 - 2 Wells in the JHI block before starting on SL.

It'll be a dry tow (i.e. transported on a heavy lift vessel), so, say, 3 days to load the Rig and get the sea fastenings done & certified, then 25 - 30 days to the FI.

They'll have to find sheltered waters to get the Rig off (San Carlos or Falkland Sound?) - allow say, 2 days to undo the sea fastenings and unload, but it's very weather dependent though.

Then about 4 days to load her up with kit / consumables, another 3 - 4 days to commission and acceptance test everything, 2 days to tow back up to JHI/SL, about 36 hrs anchoring and then off we go!!!

Yes, a good article.

It's not uncommon for 'broad brush' article like this to contain some errors (e.g. Navitas is not the Operator of Shenandoah)- especially in this case as the Author is a Commodity Analyst, but it's a great starter for anyone new to the FI.

I also don't see where the SFB comes into this. Navitas will concentrate on the NFB for many years to come and - IMHO - the FIG will get someone else to come in and look at the SFB acreage.

In that respect, I believe that, unfortunately, B&S are destined to disappear (I sold the last of my holdings in August last year). They have enough cash to keep the lights on until the end of the year and it's far too late for any farm in, as they simply don't have the time to get a drilling program up and running before the license expires.

Hi LTT / Mirasol,

I agree - we will be in a holding pattern for a while, even with the current shenanigans in the Gulf.

In reality, most of the news that we expect is already well known and likely factored into the share price. All the major contracts have already been let and we know the rough timing for the FPSO, Rig and first oil.

I feel that the only thing that might take us by surprise is the Rig could be mobilised sooner than we expect, as I think Navitas will want to drill 1 - 2 Wells on the JHI block before the license period ends, prior to starting development drilling on SL.

Long term the Iran situation may have a positive effect on RKH's share price, as I suspect that Iran will go the same way as Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya.

Once the strongman at the top is removed and there is no immediate viable opposition to take over, then all the cultural / religious factions will come out and try and grab their piece of the pie - leading to years of internal conflict.

In Iran's case, most of the economy is already controlled by the IRG anyway and I doubt they'll be too keen to see their cash cow disappear - in which case the reality on the ground may not change that much.

I do have concerns about what the Taliban will do - they've been constrained on their Western border by Iran and may use any opportunity generated by the collapse of central Govt to move West, which would also make it easier for them to increase their Heroin exports.

Keep an eye on the gas price too.

The UK gets roughly 10% of it's gas in the form of LNG from Qatar, so if Europe gets a cold snap, it could generate a spike in gas prices.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz aren't fully closed, the shipping insurance rates will no doubt increase substantially.

The Iran-Iraq war showed that oil tankers generally suffered surprisingly little damage from mine strikes, but I'm not sure that would be the case for an LNG carrier - especially if it's hit by a missile rather than a mine.

Godders,

Wouldn't you prefer it to have two posters who work in the industry actually explain how they reached their positions?

Or do you prefer the "No, I'm right and you're wrong - so there!" approach?

It may not be standard practice in accounting circles, but in the oil industry it's common that if any LLM is used, then that must be made clear and also an explanation given as to how the model is calibrated so the output is as unbiased as possible.

Not everything can be reduced to bite sized chunks for those with a limited attention span - although these days Google can read it out for you.

Besides, as LDC said, if you aren't interested, you don't have to read it.

Just for the record, did my MBA a couple of decades ago and why on Earth would I write to a paper that despises the industry I work in?

As for your last post - laughable.

Though no doubt you will claim that this post is "jumping down your throat".

It's actually surprising how many in the industry are not aware of 'The Prize', which was subsequently updated by Daniel Yergin in 2008.

That's when the TV Series was produced - now available on DVD from your favourite online store and worth watching.

More relevant now, he published "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations" in 2020 - which was promptly made out of date by Covid and the Russian invasion of The Ukraine, so he updated it in 2021.

It's a much easier read than the 'The Prize' and amongst other things has a really good section on just how much the US economy benefitted from Shale Oil & Gas (TL:DR it saved it).

The documentary "Last Breath" (not seen the film version) is well worth watching, and shows just how quickly and catastrophically things can go sideways.

There are quite a few blow out videos on YouTube now too, especially from places like Russia and the rest of the former Soviet Union which we wouldn't have known about before. One comment I've heard from friends who watch these is they are surprised at just how loud a blow-out is.

Yup, even flaring during well testing can sound like you are standing next to a jet engine at full power....

There aren't any videos from Chinese blowouts for obvious reasons, although while I was there they couldn't hide from us that a Rig nearby had somehow managed to have a blow out on a sub-normally pressured field!

Unfortunately the US is still miles behind in HSE (and not just in the oil industry) and they still have fatal accidents & blow outs with sadly monotonous regularity - often due to reasons which modern Operating practices typically used by other Western or Major Operating Companies would have prevented.

It is a dangerous environment we work in - you can't run far Offshore and there's no Fire Engine or Ambulance a few minutes away to help out, you have to do that yourselves.

Especially if you are doing 28/28 Overseas, you miss out on so much.

But it's not just us, it's the worry of the families at home when they hear of a Helicopter going down, or a fatality on a Rig, or a Civil War erupting where they know you are working.

Waiting for the phone call that will let them know that you might be banged up, but are basically O.K.

Or the knock on the door from the Police when you aren't.

What will be really telling is when they start pulling the 6th Gen Semis and Drillships out of cold stack.

To reactivate one of those will cost about $10 Million and take a couple of months at least.

Or when they start work on completing the dozen or so Semis and DrillShips in various SEA shipyards that the build contracts were terminated on when the last crash hit in 2014/15.

hi ovets,

you say you are aware of that, but twice in the last few days have provided shenandoah as an example of how navitas gets things done, when it is not.

navitas is to shenandoah as rkh is to sl. very interested parties, but it is the operator who is doing all the work.

we know that navitas sorted out the financing very well, but look how delayed fid was, plus the increase in budget.

don't make getting sl up and running sound like doing a 12 piece jigsaw on your desk.

it's a huge project with 10's of thousands of parts to be designed, procured and moved huge distances - which is something navitas have not done before.

i don't recognise your description of the way british companies work as being commonplace - that sounds much more like the public sector.

quoting hs2 and thames water as examples of how british companies do things is avoiding the real problem in both cases - which was the politicians.

hs2 was badly set up in the first place. this was exacerbated by the lack of experience on the civil servants who did all the early planning and cost estimating - which peter mandleson admitted in the first h2s enquiry was little more than "bag of a *** packet" costs with no ground truthing of the route chosen done by experienced railway engineers.

instead, the civil servants chose the french tgv as their basis for the cost per km, ignoring that the tgv is mainly through sparsely populated parts of france and was built years ago when many of the current planning & environmental regulations were not in place.

by the time it couldn't be hidden in the mid-late 2010's that the project was going seriously off the rails in both cost and time, politicians from the conservatives, labour and lib dems all had too much skin in the game to admit they'd made a right hash of it.

the whole water industry fiasco is the result of a catastrophic failure by ofwat to do what they were supposed to do - encourage infrastructure investment to not only replace/upgrade the victorian era water system, but to increase capacity for a population that had grown beyond the capacity of the original system in many areas.

instead, they prioritised keeping the water bills low - a mistake which the regulator has since admitted, although it didn't stop them in the last 5 year planning review (in 2019) denying the water companies request to increase bills by 16% to allow for investment, instead requiring a 10% drop.

in the case of thames, they allowed the then owners (macquarie) to saddle the company with large parent company loans that weren't needed and at interest rates that were far above market. macquarie over the period they owned thames bled the company dry and then sold the husk - which the taxpayer will pick up the cost of in one form or other.

of course, once the water companies recognised how ineffective the regulator was, they had a field day with dividends and bonus payments...

Lakobos,

Or should I say noswej, since that poster has disappeared since you came and you have admitted being on here under different ID's before....

You are behaving like a Norwegian cave dwelling Ogre and your repeated, childish attempts to ragebait the Ramptastic crew are pathetic.

Quite frankly, you are an embarrassment to us Realists.

Copy and paste posting the same slanderous insults bring absolutely nothing constructive to this board.

You are obviously a sad, broken human being, who can only try and bring some meaning to your life by attempting to annoy other people.

Reported to Admin and in the meantime, I banish you to the land of green boxes.