Member Info for ZYX098

Hi NIKB,

I think Limited funds is correct - it's largely down to how your broker/platform handles it and some are much better than others. What fees your broker/platform charges doesn't necessarily correlate with how good they actually are.

Certainly SJP have come in for a lot of criticism in the UK for their opaque fee charging structure, how expensive they are and their apparent lack of performance.

FWIW, I'm with HL and this is not the first OO I have been through with them.

It's always been the same process - you apply for your basic entitlement and then whatever extra you want to try for.

You always have to put up the cash for the whole amount (basic + extras) beforehand, as that cash is then passed onto the Company (obviously RKH in this case) doing the OO.

Once the OO process has been completed and the Company notifies your broker/platform, they should credit your account with the number of shares awarded.

HL have always initially split this so it shows in two lines (in addition to the line showing the shares you already held) - your basic entitlement and then what is effectively a "holding line" on the oversubscribed shares, as HL have to wait until the Company inform them of how the oversubscribed shares are being allocated.

Once the Company have told HL how the oversubscribed shares are being allocated (in this case, it looks like we got 4.27% of what we applied for), HL then wrapped up the shares awarded into my previous RKH share holding (HL did this for RKH on Weds evening IIRC) and I'm now showing a separate line called "open offer rejected line".

This is the cash I'm due to be returned because of the scale back.

HL normally quote 7 - 10 days for this to be returned, but in practice it's always been before that and essentially they credit my account as soon as they get the funds from the Company.

In my case I hold RKH shares in both my ISA and F&SA with HL. I didn't have any top up room in my ISA and rather than sell some of my ISA holdings to make room (mainly because I thought the OO would be substantially oversubscribed and didn't want to free up that much cash). I asked HL if I could apply for the RKH OO shares in my ISA with cash held in my F&SA account and have any subsequent shares awarded all put into my F&SA. They had this set up so I could do it all easily on line and (so far!) it appears to have been flawless.

Overall I've been happy with HL, but they aren't everyone's cup of tea. For example, if you make a lot of trades their charges soon mount up.

My main criticism of HL is in cases of OO like this, although you get an email explaining how many shares were issued to you and the cost, you don't get a separate 'brokers contract note' for your records.

Others can (some have already!) chip in with their experience with their brokers.

I'm with HL.

I applied for my OO allocation and about 8 times that in excess, as I expected the excess allocation to be considerably scaled back.

I got my OO entitlement and (like others) 4.27% of the excess I applied for

The shares were credited to my HL account the day before yesterday, but I haven't got the remaining cash back yet - HL's original notice said it should refunded in 7 - 10 days.

Hi MM,

Good to see you back!

In a previous post, you also mentioned that you thought the acreage to the East of SL was potentially very interesting as well.

Is that still the case? Or was it just the Eastern part of Sanson terrace you were thinking about?

Has this area been licensed before and relinquished (PL033?)?

Do you know how much work has actually been done on it, in terms of lead/prospect identification?

I am guessing that it will come up for grabs in the next license round and was wondering if only a commitment to some 3D Seismic would be sufficient, or would a Well(s) be needed too?

As all FI licenses are due to expire at the end of this year, I’m guessing that the FIG will prioritise the NFB and look to award the new licenses in Q3 2027.

My thought is that although RKH are currently cash strapped, the timing of the next license round and the work commitment could mean that we’ll have enough cash to be able to fund at least some 3D Seismic (presuming we are in with Navitas and the split is the same).

Do you have any thoughts on the amount / cost of 3D Seismic, how long it would take to plan a shoot and mobilse a vessel?

Any commitment Well would be towards the end of the license period, so presuming 1st Oil in Q2 2028, I think we would have the cash flow from SL to fund that.

Although we currently can't afford to have got into JHI with Navitas, I'm hopeful that the general timing of the next round should mean that RKH can be part of any license group with Navitas, should Navitas go for additional blocks (and why wouldn't they?).

WRT Sams performance, it's all to easy to point the finger with 20/20 hindsight but he made what he thought were the correct decisions at the time with the information (and resources) that he had. I'm glad SL is over the line and that we can look forward to more good news over the next few years!

Mea Culpa.

I knew I wouldn’t be able to listen to it until this afternoon and I should have waited until I had.

I thought there was a reasonable chance that SL / FI would be raised, as it was Bloomberg Finance doing the interview at the Davos Economic gathering and I was wrong.

My deepest apologies to anyone who listened to it.

When it comes to SL, I am, and always have been a…..Faithful!

Haven't listened to it yet (busy!), so don't know if the FI or SL is mentioned.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-01-22/bloomberg-talks-president-of-argentina-javier-milei-podcast

The Endeavour was named by the Navitas Operations Director in a LinkedIn post by an information house that someone (Pauldrayton?) posted on here in mid December.

IIRC, it also said that Vallourec were the low bid for casing.

Yes, taking a stacked Rig is never ideal, although in many respects it's better than taking a new build out of the shipyard - especially for a remote location project.

I'm guessing that the Endeavour is currently being marketed for short duration work (P&A or an appraisal/development Well) prior to being mobbed to the FI.

However, it could also be a risk to take a Rig that was in contract, as not only would the end date be subject to delays (operational, weather) but also most have additional options on their contracts these days.

Navitas would have to commit to a fairly narrow window for the mobilisation date for the heavy lift vessel for the dry tow down to the FI, and the cost penalty for having it on standby for more than a few days would be considerable (likely not much change from $100k pd).

Yes, I'm sure they would have had unofficial conversations with the FIG beforehand.

But I'm also willing to bet they were along the lines of identifying exactly what definition applies to "drilling a Well" and how far into 2027 would the FIG be willing to slip the end of the license.

e.g. is it enough to have the Rig on the way, or to spud prior to the nominal end of the license, or does the Well have to be TD'd and logged, or do the logs have to be fully evaluated and integrated into the modeling before the definition is met?

Seen all four used at various times.

In the good old days, especially on remote land, it could lead to some "interesting" definitions of what spud actually was...

Famously, the first Well on Texaco's UK Tartan Field was 'spudded' by lowering a Bit to the seabed by Crane. Didn't drill another foot for six months afterwards!

As for UKCS Operators 'wriggling' out of their commitments, I only saw that happen when (after interpreting seismic) there was no structure to drill a commitment Well on.

Although for one Operator, the DEn still made us drill a Well (nothing to do with the DEn Geologist having been fired by the Operator the previous year.....), so we picked the shallowest point on the block where a potential reservoir was and drilled that.

Anyway, getting back to Navitas and the FIG, yes being the first to commit to FID would give Navitas some leverage.

But the FIG couldn't give too much away, as they'd have to officially announce it and would also leave themselves open to a legal challenge if A. N. Other Operator was looking to pick up the block in the next round.

Hi Mirasol,

They can only do that (enter phase 3) if they've fulfilled their current license commitments, and they haven't.

If my reading is correct, if they don't drill a Well before the end of this year then the entire license has to be given up.

https://www.falklands.gov.fk/mineralresources/offshore/production-licences

What really showed he was clueless was announcing ahead of time that he was going to sell off much of our Gold reserves, thus guaranteeing he got a rock bottom price!

Morning LTT,

Have a look at the "Rig Mobilisation timing" thread I posted on Sunday - I think they will bring the Rig down early for exactly those reasons.

But they'll look for more oil first - bigger profit margins than gas and they can essentially 'cookie cutter' the SL Development plans.

Johnson will need much more appraisal (including testing, and as far as I know, a DST package isn't being mobilised) and I think the key driver for a potential development will be the amount of condensate that is available, as gas alone won't be that attractive for the next few years.

The acronym richlist was looking for is FLNG.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ghfuyp931So&list=PLl8NTf4WgS2zBFCv0MlqXsHiL4GSrDsJM&index=20

FLNG vessel development and use has come forwards leaps and bounds in the last few years and there are now several in use with many more in the pipeline.

However, by the time any potential development of Johnson would take place (I'd say mid-late 2030's), there is forecast to be a significant glut of LNG caused by projects coming on line in the next few years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ENslbTWGao&list=PLl8NTf4WgS2zBFCv0MlqXsHiL4GSrDsJM&index=2

FLNG vessels that convert the gas to Ammonia are also beginning to come through the design process and this may be a potential avenue to look at as well.

Not sure if it's still true, but at the end of last year the No. 1 holder of US Bonds was Canada and No. 2 was the UK.

The adverse reaction of the bond market apparently reined in his original planned tariff program in April last year.

The US markets were closed yesterday, so their reaction to his insanity today will be interesting...

From HL:

We’ll add your new shares to your account on or around 21 January 2026.

What happens if I don’t get all the shares I apply for?

We’ll take the full cost of your election, so if you apply for more than your guaranteed entitlement but don’t get them all, the cash difference will be refunded to your account on receipt. There’s no definite date for this but it’s usually within 7-10 days of the shares being issued. As your shares are held with Hargreaves Lansdown scaling back of excess elections may not be on the same terms as those announced by the company.

Norway just announced the award of 57 licenses to "slow production decline on the NCS and support long-term energy supply to Europe."

https://worldoil.com/news/2026/1/13/norway-awards-57-offshore-exploration-licenses-in-latest-apa-round/?oly_enc_id=5801J6403578F0Z

Last year, for the first time since the early 1960's, there were NO exploration Wells drilled on the UKCS.

HM Govt still declines to issue any new licenses (learning nothing from the experience of Denmark & New Zealand) and shows no signs of dropping the catastrophic EPL, despite the precipitous and ongoing drop in UK Oil & Gas production and continuing loss of jobs.

https://read.nxtbook.com/gulf_energy_information/world_oil/december_2025/industry_outlook_2026_kemp.html

In the meantime, Mad Ed continues to keep his head firmly buried in the sand with respect to our future energy requirements and the security of supply.

Yes, although it would obviously mean us diluting our share somewhat.

However, the timing and nature of the Navitas announcement w.r.t. Eco and also PL001 means I think that they haven't been successful in their discussions with any potential farminee for SL, and that Navitas don't see someone else on the horizon ready to come in just yet.

There has been speculation that the RKH share price will take a bump when mob of the Rig is announced.

In reality, there would be no real reason for this to happen other than sentiment.

But giving some thought to the recent announcement by Navitas w.r.t. the PL001 farm in, I think that the Rig will be mobilised in Q4 this year, rather than Q1 next year. Possibly even as early as Q3.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d7074fbd8383200018db434/t/696520557c318c73d95b48b8/1768235093253/20260111+JHI+Shareholder+Letter+re+Navitas+HoT_v2-signed.pdf

My thoughts behind this are as follows;

Firstly, all the shipyard work done on the Endeavour (which must have included the ABS 5 yr certification) a short time ago seemed very early if the Rig wasn't due down in the FI until late Q1 2027 - especially since it apparently doesn't have any other work contracted before then. So doing the work so early potentially takes a year off the back end when it would need recertification.

Secondly, the PL001 license (as are all FI Licenses) is due to expire at the end of this year.

As far as I can see, JHI haven't yet met their license obligation to drill a Well and so would be required to surrender the whole license instead of just 50%.

https://www.falklands.gov.fk/mineralresources/offshore/production-licences

JHI have certainly identified enough potential prospects to make the block interesting, so I think that Navitas would like to drill a couple of Wells before moving onto the SL Phase 1 drilling program.

https://www.jhiassociates.com/north-falkland-basin

This should give them enough information to go back to the FIG and negotiate which area(s) would be relinquished, while giving the added bonus of a couple of 'shake down" Wells for the Rig, Rig crews and service companies.

Unlike the SFB, the equipment and materials required for an Exploration Well(s) in the NFB are relatively easy/quick to procure - indeed, they could use the SL Casing, equipment and materials to drill these, with Navitas / RKH increasing the orders from their supply companies and backcharging the PL001 license group accordingly.

If the liquid mud plant isn't going to be ready in time, it would be easy enough to include water based mud chemicals in the shipments, so that WBM could be used on these Wells (as was the case with all the previous Wells drilled in the NFB).

Hi Mirasol,

It will be for a lot more than "emergency accommodation".

You are forgetting that there will be a permanent crew of 20 - 30 service hands to work the Supply Base, including the bulk plant and liquid mud plant.

There will also be around 15 spaces needed for the pilots and maintenance crews of the Helicopters.

Also, during crew changes there usually won't be enough time to get every one (Rig, FPSO & Construction) changed out on the same day. In any case, the flight crew of the charter plane will need to stay overnight, as they will be out of duty flight hours by then.

Hi LTT / LDC,

Ordinarily I would have presumed that RBL would be available for RKH to use for Phase 2.

However, I don't know how the banks/finance houses would view an application before they had some production data available? My instinct is that they wouldn't, unless they charged a considerable risk premium, which might mean it's not a financially attractive option.

In other basins which have plenty of production history, then I would say that RBL ahead of 1st oil would be a reasonable expectation, as the other producing fields will greatly reduce the risk aspect of everything potentially falling over.

Ideally I'd like to see us raise funding for Phase 2 such that the Rig essentially carries straight onto Phase 2 development drilling, which has many operational and financial advantages.

As per the timing I outlined in the “Phase 2 of SL” thread, this would need to be by the end of this year and while I would love for that to happen, in all honesty I can’t see it.

Could Navitas essentially fund RKH again for Phase 2? A ‘conventional’ Oil Co certainly wouldn’t, but Navitas aren’t a conventional Oil Company, so maybe they would take the risk so they could speed up the SL Phase 2 Development by c. 18 months.

On the other hand, we don’t yet know what Navitas plans are for the Eco acreage – and not just PL001 either – so that may preclude them haviong the spare financial capacity to fund RKH anyway.

Hi Tincan,

If 1st Oil is Q2 2028, then potentially Q4 2028.

However, RKH will have to use their cash flow to pay off their various loans and cash calls for SL Phase 2 and any Exploration / Appraisal work, so I doubt there would be much left over for regular dividend payments.

I can see them doing a "special dividend" payment as a one off to reward LTH's, especially if the POO is substantially above that used in the filed economics.

So here are my thoughts on the timing of Phase 2;

Given the delay in announcing FID, I think we can now presume that the timings given in the EIS are likely to slip by a similar amount.

In any case, now that they have the Rig and main Contract packages sorted out, the Drilling & Completions people will be able to go into much greater detail in well timings, as they can now factor in how long it takes the Rig to perform a particular operation (e.g. Running BOP's, running casing etc).

They'll also get with the contractors to do a similar exercise, e.g. how long it takes to put each BHA together, how long to run the Completion, set up and perform the gravel pack etc,

Similarly, I'm willing to bet that when they did the timing for the EIS, they didn't yet have the bottom hole locations for each Well, so the individual Well directional programs couldn't be factored in.

But sticking with their base case, which appears to be 500 Days to drill and complete all the Wells, this gives the following timing;

1st March 2027 - Commence drilling the first SL Well

July 2028 - Complete drilling the last Well on Phase 1

Currently it looks like 1st Oil will be somewhere around Q2 2028.

For SL Phase 2, they should be able to roll over the major equipment supply contracts rather than having to re-tender everything, so that means they'll need 18 months lead time to order and transport everything down to PS.

To avoid an extended period where the Rig is potentially idle, they would need to get to FID for Phase 2 in December 2026 so they can order the equipment in January 2027 - long before 1st Oil.

That brings up two issues; are they confident enough in their reservoir modelling to order the Phase 2 equipment before they have any production data to validate their models and can RKH fund our share of any cash calls?

The second point is the easy one - at the moment, we do not.

Now, much of the equipment would be pretty standard and easily sold on in the event of project failure - but they'd still only get, say, 50% of what was paid. Some of it is not, like the Vacuum Insulated Tubing and it would be questionable if the sand screens could be sold on.

Could a potential OM award cover the costs? Even if we did get awarded the cash on appeal, it would still be too late and in any case, wouldn't cover our share of the Phase 2 costs.

With respect to the first point, a good case could be made that ordering upfront and potentially taking a hit if it all goes tits up would be less than the guaranteed $10's Millions it would cost to demob the rig and equipment, only to have to mob it all again 18-24 months later.

However, Oil Co's are notoriously conservative and here we don't have any offset production information to use as a 'go-by', so I'm leaning towards FID Phase 2 in Q4 2028 with drilling commencing in Q1 2030 - which RKH could fund from SL cash flow.

Researchers have found that AI LLM's give misleading or factually incorrect answers around 35% of the time.

Which, to be fair, is a better accuracy 'hit rate' than TH2 and his "well researched" posts have.

The same Researchers also found that LLM's have difficulty in taking in the negative connotations of a statement in around 40% of cases.

In other words, the LLM will often miss the "not" in the sentence " UKOG is not destined for success" when it summarises an article.....