Member Info for ZYX098

Countries taking over and nationalising their Oil & Gas industries happens more often than you'd think.

I recall talking with the Father of a friend about his days in AMOCO.

The Egyptian Govt decided they didn't need AMOCO and kicked them out.

Within about six months, the production from the AMOCO leases had fallen from 750k BOPD to less than 200k BOPD. The Egyptian Govt begged AMOCO to come back in and they eventually did - but so much damage had already been done that they couldn't get production back above 400k BOPD.

FWIW, I recall in late 2019 reading a study (I'll try and find it) that estimated the CAPEX underspend on finding & developing new Gas & Oil reserves at around $1 Trillion.

The oil industry was just getting back on it's feet when Covid came along and kicked us in the nuts.

Again.

Few outside the industry realise how brutal downturns are, as Companies shed thousands overnight.

Drilling is particularly vulnerable, as we are the ones spending bucket loads of cash and if a Company can save $1 Million pd by shutting down a DW Rig, they'll do it - even mid Well if they have to.

Not a good feeling waiting for an HR rep to turn up with Security, call IT to shut down your computer and then giving you a box and 15 mins to clear your desk...

Anyway, the oil industry seems confident that the forecast glut for next year will happen, but I'm not seeing anything that says it will last much beyond the end of 2026.

JPT article on oil price

https://jpt.spe.org/comments-is-another-oil-glut-coming-analysts-warn-of-an-uneasy-2026-ahead

World oil – OPEC pausing production hikes

https://worldoil.com/news/2025/11/28/opec-confirms-plan-to-pause-production-hikes-in-early-2026-amid-surplus-concerns/?oly_enc_id=5801J6403578F0Z

Saudi cuts Arab Light price

https://worldoil.com/news/2025/12/4/saudi-crude-prices-fall-sharply-as-opec-holds-output-pause-into-2026/?oly_enc_id=5801J6403578F0Z

As nikb has said (often....), Russian production will fall sharply over the next few years. Not only are they being starved of western equipment and expertise, they are clearly over-producing what they have.

This leads to a long term reduction in reserves due to a number of factors e.g. formation damage (e.g. fines moving and blocking pore throats), early water and/or gas breakthrough, Completion failures (sand screen washouts, gravel pack failures, erosion) etc.

Also, OPEC does not have as much spare capacity as is often thought. Indeed, many struggle to met their quotas. Saudi nominally has around 3 Million BOPD, but the great majority of that is in heavy, sour crude which there isn't much more demand for. The UAE has a little and while Iraq theoretically has a couple of Million BOPD, in reality it's hamstrung by bottlenecks all along the production chain.

Hopefully the ramp up in oil prices will be slow but steady - a sharp spike will cause the World Economy to slow down and many of the largest consumer Countries are barely growing. I heard a recent analysis on Bloomberg that if you take out the tidal wave of spending on AI, the US Economy was in - or close to being in - recession and has been all year.

But it won't affect SL, as the train will still be heading down the tracks. With at least some of the production hedged at $65, even a protracted fall in oil price won't stop the train.

Hi LTT,

How much acreage they'd have to give up depends on what's dictated by the license terms.

BTW, does anyone know how much (if any) acreage on the SL blocks will have to be relinquished?

As (at the time) nobody appeared to be interested in the SFB acreage, the FIG were probably happy to roll over the license in the (sadly fast fading) hope that BOR would get someone to farm in.

It will be very interesting to see what the FIG do next year, as all the licenses come to an end in Dec 2026.

Will they put all open licenses in the NFB & SFB up for bid?

Or will they leave the SFB for a couple of years so they can focus on the NFB and get alternate bid rounds going?

As Nomalkanymore has pointed out before, there is some acreage both to the North and East of SL that look very prospective.

I doubt the FIG will want al their eggs in a single basket with Navitas and we know from their tidying up legislation earlier this year that other parties have been sniffing around.

Also, the time frame for license commitments (normally 3 yrs, but could easily be 5) would not be favourable to us (RKH) , as we won't have cash to spare for Seismic / Drilling campaigns until some time after 1st Oil.

So could Navitas form a separate JV Operating group with someone else, so they can go after additional acreage?

Exciting times ahead!

Hi Mirasol / Paul,

Tom Campbell has a really good reputation it's good to know they have him onboard.

WRT to experience (or lack of it) of Nick Riley, it's not a red herring at all.

The fact that he'll be dealing with English speaking / NTSA / HSE etc is irrelevant.

As I said, as those of us who have worked Overseas know, it needs a very different mindset compared to working your whole life in ABZ.

Your timeframes need to be considerably altered thinking in months and years, not days and weeks.

You need to be able to think a lot further down the contingency chain, as any additional equipment (or personnel) are not available in a couple of days on the next boat/flight. It'll be a couple of months by boat, or a week by (very expensive) charter flight.

You need to be aware of the cultural differences that could arise, as Service Hands will be coming from all over the World. (Had Bosnians and Serbs onboard a Rig once - that did not end Well....)

Indeed, so will equipment. I'm willing to bet that far more will be coming from Singapore / Dubai / Houston than from ABZ.

My first two priorities for that position would be significant Overseas and Project set up experience - and he has neither.

Having an ABZ office doesn't make sense either - the people the Ops team really need to be close to are the Geologists, Geophysicists, Reservoir, HSE, Logistics and Finance people - and they are all in the London office.

They don't need to be close to the Service Companies - they can put a co-ordinator in the London office and deal with the other service co. offices (ABZ / Sing / DXB / IAH) over Teams.

An Exploration Program and a Development program are two different beasts, so what worked 15 yrs ago (when they had experienced people from AGR) won't necessarily be efficient now.

Hi Hiram,

As has already been pointed out, it was the Desire 14/15-1 'Rachel' Well that was deviated.

It had nothing to do with the water depth (which doesn't vary much at all across the NFB) - they simply wanted to sidetrack to another nearby geological target without going to the expense of moving the Rig and spudding a new Well (with all the costs that that entails).

They may also have wished to get some information/experience on drilling a deviated Well in advance of planning the Development Program.

Of course they used a mud motor and Navitas will no doubt do the same (a Rotary Steerable system is basically a mud motor with a few extra bits added on).

The hole problems appear to have primarily been caused by having the wrong mud weight, not the mud chemistry.

In that respect, they (and presumably Navitas) will have done a Geomechanical study to determine the correct mud weight needed to drill deviated / horizontal Wells without the hole collapsing (mud weight too light) or breaking the formation down (mud weight too heavy).

IIRC, one of the Geologists (Nomalkanymore / Cammbo / nikb) who post on here mentioned that the tectonic stress regime in the NFB was relatively benign, so they shouldn't need outlandish mud weights.

Neither should they get into a situation where they need an additional casing string, as the 'window' should be quite large.

But they do need to get the mud weight correct, and hopefully they have enough log data from the original Wells to do a valid Geotechnical study.

Then it's a case of the Wellsite Geologists keeping a good eye on the cuttings coming over the shakers, wathcing for an indications that the mud weight needs raising - or indeed, dropping.

Hi LTT / Alma / Mogger,

As the spec sheet says, it's currently outfitted to 5,000' and designed for 8,000'.

To change over to the 8,000' designed water depth, they'd need to upgrade the entire mooring system (anchors, chains & wires) and possibly the anchor winches as well.

They'd also need to upgrade the Riser Handling equipment (elevators, tongs, slips) and the riser tensioning system, as well as obtain more riser.

All the already existing Rig facilities would have to be tested and certified for the 8,000', as the original certs for that water depth (if they were ever obtained) would have expired long ago.

That work would cost several $ Million to do, and there's no reason for Navitas to pay for the Rig to be kitted out to the 8,000' as they don't need it.

To pay for such work, the normal method is either pay an increased day-rate over a period of time, or a lump sum up front.

BOR don't have any work program and they don't have the cash to pay a lump sum upfront, so the chance of it going to BOR are zero.

Reminds me, I really must hop onto the BOR board and burst the bubble of the self-appointed Sheriff and his acolyte.

Could Navitas use the Rig to drill one of the Eco Wells on the way down?

It depends upon a lot of things apart from the obvious of the water depth.

Namely how far advanced Eco are in their Well planning and materials / equipment procurement, whether or not they already have a Rig contracted or if a Rig is readily available in the area.

In many Countries, the cost, hassle and work involved to bring in a Rig just for a short campaign isn't worth it if a Rig is already available.

However, given the distance from the Endeavours current location to SL, it will undoubtedly be a "dry tow", where they put it on a heavy lift vessel.

In that respect, interrupting the journey to drill elsewhere (and bear in mind, it's not a brief excursion - look at the distances involved!) is very unlikely to be economical.

So I doubt it, but wouldn't rule out the possibility altogether.

Ocelot,

Your boundless optimism in trying to polish this stinking pile of rancid fecal matter never ceases to amaze me.

There will be a Parent Company Guarantee attached to the funds outstanding to Alba and Doriemus, so it's semantics with respect to which subsidiary actually owes the cash - and any due diligence audit will pick that up.

The LOS's were pounced upon with great fanfare by the ramptastic crew, with promises that JV announcements were 'imminent'.

The Realists said at the time that they weren't worth the paper they were written on - and we were correct.

As has already been pointed out, the NG MOU is also essentially worthless as the pipeline termination is 80 miles from UKOG's proposed site.

Also, there are several oil fields nearing the end of their life which would be just as suitable for H2 storage, which would be much, much cheaper to develop and are closer to the termination of the proposed pipeline.

IIRC, a similar MOU with respect to gas production from Loxley was also seized upon by the Ramptastic crew as concrete evidence that the project would go ahead. Again the Realists explained why it wouldn't happen and again, we were correct.

Again, it's been pointed out several times why the salt in Dorset is of dubious quality and certainly not conducive to leaching.

UKOG also helpfully pointed it out in their own presentation – it’s on page 11 of the presentation on the UKEn website.

UKOG helpfully included the GR and Lith column which shows that's the case, although they have omitted the Dolomite / Anhydrite layers that are also present.

To save you the trouble of trying to find it, here's the link;

https://ukenergystorage.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/UKEn-Overview-Web-V4-050724.pdf

It was also pointed out a considerable period of time ago (can’t think who by…) that not only would sourcing the fresh water needed for leaching, but that the disposal of the brine produced would be a major issue that needed resolving.

As always, you have ignored the facts that any income from H2 is a decade away, that UKOG would somehow have to find £1 Billion to finance it, that UKOG have no income and have the liability of the P&A and site restoration of BB coming up in the next 2 months.

As I forecast, UKOG have failed to meet their own deadline of the 15th December for submission of the plan to restart HH to SCC and, quite frankly, I would be amazed if SCC give permission without demanding that the P&A and site restoration costs (c. £2.5 Million) for HH be put into an escrow account (or performance bond) first.

Even if SCC are minded to give permission, the proposal has to go out for public consultation which will no doubt generate further protests and - quite likely - legal challenges from the eco-warrior brigade.

So UKOG have no income and no hope.

Hi Ovets,

Mirasol is basically correct.

Brent became a benchmark used world wide, because it's a "sweet, light" crude of exceptional quality.

I don't recall ever coming across a crude that's been "Brent +$" for that reason.

The waxy nature of the SL crude, plus it's remote location, plus the fact that it'll need tankers that can keep the cargo warm, plus that there are many Refineries that can't take waxy crude all count against SL.

There won't be any shortage of takers, but the price will be "Brent - $x".

Hi LTT,

A lot of the long lead items (Casing, Tubing, completion equipment, Trees, Wellheads, flowlines etc) will be on a staged payment basis, so that a certain % of payment will be due at certain milestones during production of the equipment (e.g. purchase of raw materials, delivery to the factory/workshop, basic preparation, etc etc).

That way Navitas / RKH won't have to cough it all up in one lump and the Vendor gets essentially paid for their ongoing outlay.

What price have Navitas hedged at and what % of production have they hedged?

Unusual to do it so far in advance of 1st Oil?

LTT,

Yes, the last couple of years have been really, really bad for Exploration & Appraisal drilling on the UKCS, as a direct result of the EPL.

As Mirasol says, they are still busy finding and developing new fields in the Norwegian sector, and redeveloping more mature fields with new technology.

https://worldoil.com/news/2025/12/16/1-8-billion-ppf-project-approved-to-revive-previously-produced-fields-at-ekofisk/?oly_enc_id=5801J6403578F0Z

More than a little ironically, the Norwegians are concentrating on finding and developing more gas - because they know that the UK will need it!

Since the imposition of the EPL, UK Oil production has dropped by around 35% and Gas production by some 25%. Those drops in production will be magnified as routine well maintenance and interventions to repair/sidetrack older Wells to a different target are no longer worth it.

https://jpt.spe.org/uk-government-keeps-oil-and-gas-windfall-tax-until-2030-trade-groups-warn-of-a-perilous-spiral?utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FO-12-16-2025&utm_content=httpsjptspeorgukgovernmentkeepsoilandgaswindfalltaxuntil2030tradegroupswarnofaperilousspiral&mkt_tok=ODMzLUxMVC0wODcAAAGey2IZVje-7OihTA6S_0Wh2DcfMFvrAwB2wWW9ZzGlLUBq5x3yR354Q_MgSNBmBDPrqVH64tepuekXSICKm8-X2HXaTeiihMmDu-P0CCt_kLyprQ

Unfortunately unless the EPL is lifted very soon, the long term effects will be multiplied as 'production hubs' start hutting down. These serve as an outlet for smaller fields that aren't big enough to produce on a stand alone basis, so they rely on the hub.

If the hub goes, then they have to shut down too. This has already happened with the Total Gryphon field being shut down and the five other fields that produce into it also having to prematurely shut down. Note that the original plan for Gryphon was to switch over to gas production by blowing down the gas cap once oil production had finished - that will now never happen.

The effect is multiplied because small, proven fields in the hub area that have yet to be hooked up will now NEVER be produced.

The big one will be the shut down of Forties, currently planned by Apache for 2029 - a date that was brought forwards by around a decade as a direct result of the EPL.

That and the decom of the Forties pipeline will be a real death blow to the whole area - one that will result in significant lost tax revenue from HM Govt.

The EPL revenue this year is expected to be only £700 Million - much lass than the Treasury original forecast. However our esteemed Chancellor and Treasury officials have refused to revisit their modeling.

I've read industry estimates that there will be around £50 Billion in lost tax revenue because the EPL hasn't been lifted, and we will be relying on imports for some 80% of our O&G by 2030.

Absolute insanity which our current Govt show no signs of changing due to the zealotry of Mad Ed.

GOYB,

I don't think it's a UN embargo that's preventing them. I think it's the UK won't allow any weapons systems with UK manufactured parts top be sold to Argentina.

It's like the US hamstringing The Ukraine (and the UK) by refusing to allow the full capabilities of some weapons systems to be used because they conain US parts or need US data to work.

Here's a somewhat better article on the FID announcement;

https://jpt.spe.org/partners-greenlight-sea-lion-project-in-falkland-islands?utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FO-12-16-2025&utm_content=httpsjptspeorgpartnersgreenlightsealionprojectinfalklandislands&mkt_tok=ODMzLUxMVC0wODcAAAGey2IZViQIHtiYe2Fcr_7qGtOGS8jtccPMqsKGlPLy4jVIWh7cZrrcx3XabJ4FdsbEVklagyEP19pIZFWjU1vINV0IF_VNoGy0Bae6GBU9ceT24Q

Given the somewhat surprising timing of the announcement w.r.t. the FIG elections, I suspect they were a little concerned about leaks, especially since information about the FPSO had started to be published.

Ohhh poop - my bad, fat fingers...

Anyway, I think they'll do a vertical well first to shake down the Rig, mud systems, cuttings processing/disposal etc.

Then move onto the deviated Wells.

They should have an Exploration / Appraisal Well up their sleeves (no, NOT Isobel - a short step out like Casper / Hector / Ninky that can be tied-back to SL), so if they do get any issues, they can move over and do that while analysing the data and reworking their drilling / mud programs.

WRT the weather, it looks more like WOS or NNS. But even if it's more akin to Central I'm sure I'm not the only one on here who - in the past - has been looking at the weather forecast hoping for a break where the sea and/or wind drops enough to offload the supply boat.

The wind will be a factor in Crane operations in PS as well, both in servicing the Supply Boats and also just moving equipment around the base.

None of the weather issues are insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination, but they are more than capable of throwing a spanner in the works at the most inconvenient of times.

The other thing to bear in mind is that if the FPSO is delayed for any reason after the Rig has been mobilised, they'll just keep drilling and completing additional Wells.

In any case, they'll have optimised the drilling sequence such that they'll be able to ramp up to the full production rate in a short space of time after the FPSO has been hooked up (same as on Shenandoah).

BTW, the Logistics will need careful planning. Last time they just loaded a couple of boats in ABZ and sent them down. This time there will be equipment coming from all over the place (likely Houston, Dubai and Sing), as will the personnel - very easy things to get tripped up on in you've only worked in Aberdeen..

Hiram / Mogger,

The Endeavour won't be going to BOR - she's only kitted out for 1,500m water depth and Darwin is in 2,000m.

The recent work in the dock would have been a good opportunity to refit for the Darwin water depth, but Noble would have wanted a guaranteed contract from BOR for that - something BOR simply cannot give.

The base in PS will be a very different animal to that used for the Exploration Wells, which was little more than a pipeyard and mud plant with some bulk tanks for the cement.

For Development, as well as storage of all materials they'll need to be able to service and test all the drilling & completions tools (which will need workshops, make up/ break out torque/turn machines and a pressure test bay), testing and refurb of the Casing & Tubing running kit, make up & store the Completion sub-assemblies, RA & Explosives bunkers, an inspection facility (for all down-hole tubulars, including the DP and Casing), Mud & Cement Labs plus the Mud & Cement plants.

As long as they get allocated sufficient space and the layout sorted ahead of time, then there really shouldn't be any issues with it being ready in time and be a good, user-friendly facility.

My main concern in that respect is the very strange appointment of Nick Riley as Operations Manager. As far as I can see, he has absolutely no Overseas experience and certainly no remote location work. It looks like he's never started up a project from scratch either. It also means he has no experience what are the requirements for the equipment specs and layout of the base.

As those of us who have worked Overseas know, it needs a very different mindset compared to working your whole life in ABZ.

As there are several people with loads of the relevant experience available, he must be a "friend of" appointment and that's disappointing to say the least.

While I think Divi is completely wrong in his 1st oil assertion, he is correct in one respect - the Wells will be breaking new ground.

With one exception the Exploration Wells were all vertical. The one attempt at a deviated Well was a complete failure.

The SL development calls for relatively high step-outs, with several hundred meters of horizontal in the reservoir section, plus, of course, they have to be completed with gravel packs.

Now, I'm sure that Geomechanics studies have been done to show what mud weights should be used in drilling the deviated and horizontal sections, but they are only as good as the available data is.

So I htink they'll do a vertical

Adrian was a poster who frequented the board over the years, though hasn't been seen lately.

He'd make an ID, make ever more absurd posts, which would become grossly insulting on a Friday or Saturday night until Admin threw him off - sometimes twice or more in a week.

He was permanently banned but kept coming back by using a VPN to make another ID, using tortured logic along the lines that it was other Posters fault he'd got banned for using abusive language and therefore that gave him the right to come back.

His position on UKOG changed from uber-ramping to uber-deramping and back again, depending upon what his current share holding was.

A thoroughly nasty individual and his recent non-appearance is welcome.

MarkoOiler,

Can you explain why you this share will "have a great rise"?

You've posted essentially the same thing several times, with "could be something later today" (there never has been...) and yet you provide no concrete information or reasoning to justify your assertions.

As has been pointed out on this board many, many times, there is no Govt funding that will be forthcoming, as the financial model for H2 Cavern storage is for the costs to be recouped with a floor price for H2 during sales - which won't be for at least another decade and after a spend of £1 Billion to construct and fill the facility.

No International (or UK) Company would come near UKOG.

They have a serial record over many years of catastrophic decisions leading to complete failure, led by a greedy, incompetent management team who have never participated in any of the numerous placings.

Again, as has been pointed out many times before, UKOG's Dorset H2 'project' is in the wrong place - never mind being in an area of dubious salt quality as their own presentation helpfully shows.

The Yorkshire 'project' has no chance. It's very close to an already existing salt cavern facility which is set to expand, and there's also the Rough re-purposing project which was successfully lobbied for inclusion by Centrica.

In the meantime, they don't have £5 Million in the bank as some posters keep claiming.

After costs, the placing probably raised c. £4.5 Million.

According to their much delayed financial reports (which they changed Auditors twice before they could be signed off - a black mark in any due diligence examination) they owe Creditors a substantial sum, plus SS will no doubt want his back pay.

This includes considerable sums still owed to Doriemus and Alba, which apparently they have no intention of paying back - another black mark that will count against them in any due diligence work.

Added to that they have the costs of the BB-1 P&A and site restoration coming up, which I estimate will cost around £1.3 Million.

Remember, they had to be served notice by WSCC before they finally agreed to do it.

They've sold (or are trying to sell) their only remaining production, so have no income.

As for HH, they were supposed to make a submission on the 15th December to SCC with their proposal to restart production.

UKOG missed their own deadline....

If they had really thought that HH would be profitable, they'd have been banging on SCC's doors almost as soon as the ridiculous Supreme Court judgement was issued - not waiting over a year to do so.

Given the obvious financial difficulty that UKOG are in, I'm willing to bet that SCC will be looking very closely at their cash position and asking how UKOG intend to fund the eventual P&A of the two Wells and restoration of the site - which I estimate will cost around £2.5 Million.

So again, I ask you, why will this share have a 'great rise'?

Hi Trish,

Nos is just a sad, Norwegian cave dwelling Ogre.

He's been on here before under several other ID's, and his Modus Operandi is always the same.

He contributes absolutely nothing constructive to the board, he's essentially just trying to get a rise out of people with Ad Hominem attacks.

If he follows the same course, he'll get ever more vindictive in trying to get others to respond until eventually Admin block him.

He'll disappear for a few weeks, then come back under another ID and start again.

He really is one of the saddest individuals on here.

Up to you whether or not you filter him.

I don't usually filter people as I like to see what other posters are saying and - as Penguins rightly points out - call out those few (like TH2) who frequently post fact and logic free ramps.

And just for the record, we all know that you are not Adrian.

Your spelling is fine and you can write complete sentences......

Ocelot,

Then that will make it even worse if/when they miss it!

When was the last time the UKOG did anything in the time-frame they said they would?

So UKOG were "being misleading" in their RNS when they said they were still in discussions with CeraPhi about converting BB to Geothermal.

I'm shocked!

Shocked, I tell you!

SR, I estimate it'll be in the £1.3 Million range. It potentially could be done a bit cheaper, but if they've left a mess downhole, it could be way more expensive too.

The regulations regarding how the Well is to be Plugged and Abandoned are very prescriptive and the NTSA (amongst others) has to approve the proposed program.

They are called the OEUK Well Decommissioning Guidelines Issue 7 November 2022

If you are interested, they can be found here;

https://www.scribd.com/document/733467032/Well-Decommissioning-Guidelines-Issue-7

BB-1z was sidetracked and then multiple zones were perforated.

UKOG will have to satisfy the NTSA that the original well bore was properly sealed off.

They'll have to prove that each zone that was perforated was also properly sealed off.

If they didn't do this properly and - more importantly - document it correctly at the time - the NTSA could demand that they clean out the entire Wellbore and start again.

Further back up the Well, they'll also have to prove that the aquifer(s) is still protected, which will almost inevitably require the cutting and pulling of the 7" and possibly the 9 5/8" casing as well.

At surface, all casing/conductor will have to be removed to at least 6' below ground level.

I think they'll be very fortunate indeed if they don't have to bring a Rig back in to do this.

With respect to the site itself, they will discuss with the landowner what is required - he may want the land restored back to it's natural state (which is the default in the legislation and also the original planning approval) or may agree to a hybrid and, for example, leave the access road and water line.

They'll certainly have to remove the hardcore (which will be classified as being contaminated, so have to go to landfill) and the impermeable membrane which underlies the whole site.