Member Info for ZYX098

Hi Supra,

Bit of a sideways question for you; how long do RAF base runways last for?

Just occurred to me, as I got caught out many years ago by an airport resurfacing it's only runway.

RAF Mt. Pleasant was constructed in 1985, now making the runway over 40 years old.

Has it been resurfaced since then? When would it be due a resurfacing under normal circumstances?

Presumably it would be done in stages, so that the Typhoons could still operate, but would that also allow the Voyagers to operate as well?

Or would they switch to C-17s or A-400s for the resupply runs, since I'm presuming they can land/take off in a lot shorter distance than the Voyager?

Just thinking about the crew change flights for SL, if they could be affected at some point.

Gents,

Remember, there is a big difference between having highly enriched Uranium and then being able to put it into a useable Nuclear Weapon.

No good having jet fuel if I don't have a jet engine to use it in, or a plane on which to mount the engine.

The biggest Trump own goal was when he tore up the original JCPOA agreement in 2018.

Under that agreement, Iran had given up all it's Plutonium and (IIRC) 75% of it's enriched Uranium.

It had also agreed to limit the number and type of centrifuges, the % enrichment to 3.7%, the installation of remote monitoring devices in all it's nuclear facilities, plus allow the IAEA inspectors access.

All that went out the window when Trump tore up the agreement and Iran officially withdrew after the bombing raids last year (which clearly didn't "obliterate" their nuclear capabilities).

This will be a monumental task, as never before in History has so much production been shut in across such a large area.

At least they had time to plan for it and shut everything down in an orderly manner, which will greatly help the restart process compared to an emergency shut down.

It's not just a matter of opening some valves - the whole refinery / production process has to be restarted which takes time, can be quite tricky, and that can only be done once some storage capacity is made available for the resultant crude itself (or refined products).

Also bear in mind that all the water that was pumped into the lines (to purge them) during the shut down process will need to be cleared and disposed of.

Similarly for the actual oil production - it's nearly always not just a case of opening up the valves on the Wells.

The oil in the Wells will have separated out into Gas, Oil and Water during the shut in period. When a Well starts up, these will come up in 'slugs' which have to be handled carefully

The great majority of Wells will be on artificial lift - either by injecting gas deep in the Well, or by using downhole pumps - usually Electrical Submersible pumps ("ESP").

Gas will need to be sourced (normally from produced gas, but that is obviously in limited supply..) and fed into the gas injection system to get those Wells started.

But by no means will all Wells start back up again.

The heaviest load on an ESP is during start up when it's trying to get the fluid column moving (think trying to push a car on a level piece of road - gets easier once you pick up some speed) and so this is the time it's most likely to fail.

The failure rate will be small in % terms, but a lot of Wells in pure numbers.

These will then need to be worked over to pull the production string, replace the ESP, rerun the string and start the ESP back up - which will take time and resources.

They'll have some spare equipment/materials available, but no doubt much more equipment/material will need to be ordered, as such a wholesale shut down of production has never happened before.

Also, when a Well is stared after a long shut in, it's quite common for it to not reach it's previous production rate.

The water in the Well that has separated out is now at the bottom of the Well.

This means it's covering the perforations (holes in the casing through which the oil is coming from the formation) and so the formation is exposed to water for a long time - which is likely to cause formation damage (clays / shales in contact swelling).

Some of these can be stimulated to be brought back on, but some will have to be redrilled.

Again, quite a small number in % terms, but not in pure numbers.

So it will take quite a while (6 months?) for production to get back up to what it was.

ViolinDog,

Khameni was many things and none of them good, but he wasn't stupid.

He knew the West would never allow Iran to get Nuclear Weapons, so back in 2003 he declared them to be "haram" (forbidden / a sin) and stopped all research.

Since then, no Western intelligence agency or the IAEA have ever found any evidence that Iran has restarted it.

The US's Director of National Intelligence (Tulsi Gabbard) confirmed that in her annual report to Congress in March 2025.

Although that hasn't stopped Netanyahu claiming that "Iran is just weeks away from obtaining a nuclear weapon" for over 20 years.

He's been waiting that long to find a US President dumb enough to believe him, who would ignore the US's own intelligence services and join in with Israel attacking Iran.

BTW, the only Middle East Country that has Nuclear Weapons and publicly declared they would use them is....Israel!

This article was published before the latest round of strikes on Gulf states (and Iranian) facilities.

Even if a resolution was forthcoming in the next few days (doubtful) and there are no further attacks on energy infrastructure (also doubtful), it will be several months before oil supplies get back to close to normal levels.

Not only do the fields have to be restarted (I'll write about that in another post - otherwise too many words for some people...) but much of the Tanker and LNG fleet are now out of position - a situation that it's thought will take at least six months to resolve.

At best, I can't see the oil price falling back to pre-war levels until the end of this year at the earliest (if it ever does) and gas prices will remain elevated for at least a year.

As for Gas, countries in Europe and SE Asia who normally build up their reserves during summer are going to find it hard to do so - and even if they do, it won't be cheap.

Our fuel bills this Winter are going to be higher than you'd expect and if it turns out to be a cold winter in any of Europe, SE Asia or the USA / Canada, it's going to get very ugly, very quickly.

WRT the Strait of Hormuz, the tariffs that Iran are charging (doesn't Trump love tariffs?!) are being paid for in Yuan, using the Chinese equivalent of the SWIFT banking system, thereby bypassing the "western" economy altogether.

Iran will spend those Yuan with China to repair their infrastructure (and Military), not the US.

Trump demanded that Countries who get their oil from the Gulf should provide security to shipping. By that metric, China could easily use that as an excuse base Warships in Iranian ports and say they are there for "security"!

https://jpt.spe.org/25-billion-in-middle-east-war-damage-to-disrupt-energy-supply-chains-for-years?utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FO-03-31-2026&utm_content=httpsjptspeorg25billioninmiddleeastwardamagetodisruptenergysupplychainsforyears&mkt_tok=ODMzLUxMVC0wODcAAAGg6KVC0mNFxbgiPMGqa1b8BALLmuNifQPDetWGuTDlrKiSoqXPmoaMcadzXV_qpGzEZob8mWBbH6C0L5jWSCY0cwcXgeUGKEAiZ7BpOgUJDlbP0w

Called it!

UKOG's accounts to September 2025 are due to be submitted.

So will they ;

A) File the accounts

B) Suspend the shares and ask for an extension, in the vague hope that something will save them, while SS drains the last of the cash from the Company accounts.

C) RNS that the Auditors have declined to sign them off as a going concern and announce that they are delisting.

Given the complete failure of the last RNS to generate a pump & dump opportunity to raise more cash, it's not going to be A).

So it'll be B) or C).

My money is on B)......

Hi LTT,

I agree - there is no reason for RKH to sell up before 1st Oil, after which the share price should be significantly higher.

As I've already posted, I don't think any potential suitor would be forthcoming before 1st oil anyway - too much risk for them considering it's the first development in a new province.

But I am genuinely perplexed why some posters appear to be so fixated on Isobel?

The board has had three posters - each with decades of industry experience - explain why Isobel isn't currently anywhere on Navitas's horizon and won't be for several years.

2 Geologists; Nomalkanymore (ex-Marlon Monkey) & Cammbo and Drilling (myself).

In summary;

A) More 3D Seismic is needed to better delineate the structure, including internal faulting.

B) Any Appraisal program won't be a simple "one and done", it will take 4 - 6 Wells (including testing) to properly appraise the structure for potential production.

C) There is a question mark over the formation permeability. The same sand package in SL is not being developed for just that reason and we know that the Isobel Deep Well did not kick until it was some 30% through the potential payzone (i.e. the top 30% was 'tight' with low permeability).

D) Isobel is too far to be tied back to the SL FPSO(s). Remember, it's a waxy crude. In any case, if it contains the substantial reserves we hope it does, it'll need it's own FPSO.

Unfortunately RKH are not in a financial position to contribute to any extensive exploration/appraisal program until after 1st Oil.

The Navitas stated intention to drill Gwendoline (which, thinking about it, they must be doing using the gas disposal Well as it's not wise/practical to use a producer or water injector) to prove up an additional 50 Million bbls shows the model that they are perusing.

Prove up more easily accessible reserves that can be tied back to the SL FPSO.

P2R,

The £2.6 Billion grant to WWU by HM Govt is not for investment in Hydrogen.

You are spamming the board with false information, which is against LSE rules.

Reported.

So Sando needs to raise some more cash and tries his usual avenue of issuing a meaningless RNS about an equally meaningless MOU.

But the markets are obviously wise to this and even the heroic efforts of some of the ramptastic crew have failed to budge the share price.

Actually, it speaks volumes that most of the usual ramptastic crew are noticeable by their absence.

Maybe SS couldn't pay them to post this time?

So how his SS going to raise more cash now?

The cash he managed to get out of the unwary last year has all but gone, spent on paying off some of the debt, the P&A of BB (but not the site restoration!) and, of course, SS's near £1,000 pd salary.

So, no EGM to get approval to issue more shares.

No purchase by the EBT to ensure the motion passes.

UKOG have no income and no hope of any meaningful income in the near future.

Alba are owed over £2.5 Million. DOR are owed over £0.5 Million.

Their only asset is HH, which is still shut in.

UKOG have still not submitting the required paperwork to SCC to restart production and in any case don't have the funds to reinstall the production equipment.

Even when HH was producing, production had declined an d the water cut increased to the extent that it was barely covering it's operating costs.

Last years accounts are due on the 31st March.

I wonder how long they'll delay publication this time?

Will they correct the "accidental" error of forgetting to put a - in front of a figure, magically turning an c. £800k debt into an asset?

Or will the Auditor finally refuse to sign them off as a going concern and UKOG will delist?

If UKOG were to receive Govt Funding, the share price could increase 10x.

If I'm Bill Gates' secret love child, I would be a Billionaire.

Both possibilities are equally likely.....

Hi LTT,

My guess is Brightspot has taken the announcement by Shell that they are considering selling their Argentinian Shale assets, decided 2 + 2 = 7 and that they are selling up to buy into the FI.

If Shell do decide to sell, I feel it's far more likely that the funds raised will go towards their planned drilling campaign Offshore Namibia.

With respect to Navitas's plans; selling some of Shenandoah - combined with the planned timing for the release for the first FPSO after initial SL production - I think means they'll concentrate on getting some assets on PL001 proved up and ready for production using the Aoka Mizu.

Unfortunately on SL we are stuck in the A pays for B model for a while until RKH can pay off their debt (85% of the cash flow has to be dedicated to that).

Only once we have built up some cash flow/reserves can we get into some serious Appraisal / Development of the near SL fields - which will be needed to justify getting in the larger FPSO.

Obviously RKH could sell a % of their holding to raise funds for earlier exploration / appraisal, but I'd rather they didn't!

As for BOR, I believe they've missed the boat (which is why I sold all my remaining BOR shares back in Aug last year).

It's far too late to get a farm in and still drill a Well before the end of the license period (Dec this year), plus they only have enough cash to keep the lights on until the end of the year anyway.

If I was looking to get into the SFB (and Shell's Namibia Graff discovery should be a salutary lesson for anyone claiming huge reserves for BOR on the back of a single Well that was never tested....), I would not want to tie myself to a minnow that has no funds and would need to be carried through any Exploration / Appraisal program - never mind any potential development.

Equally, the FIG has no reason to grant another license extension to BOR in the hope that they might get a farminee.

Better for the FIG to put the license into the next round and let a much larger Company with a guaranteed work program get the block.

Brutal for BOR, but the FIG have to do what's best for the Falkland Island Residents and the Oil Industry isn't known for being a charity.

Thanks Mogger.

Good find as always.

Page 15 - that's a 25 - 30 Well Exploration / Appraisal Well program, just on the acreage that RKH have an interest in.

Another 10+ on the PL001 acreage.

It shows how under explored the NFB actually is!

Page 14 "Exploration tail addition on 1st Development Well".

I'm guessing they haven't actually talked to the drilling people yet!

Doing a horizontal in the reservoir, then dropping to another horizon is fraught with risks, both during drilling and then afterwards.

They'll get limited MWD/LWD data. Trying to properly isolate the Gwendoline formation so they can then run the Completion will be difficult, plus leaving the horizontal section open longer than necessary (and having more rotating hours with the drill string banging around opposite your producing horizon) before running the Completion - risky.

For sure it'll cost more than $5 Million.

For me, far too much risk to try it on the first development Well in the NFB - remember, there's never been a successful deviated Well drilled in the NFB yet, never mind horizontal.

Start with baby steps, then walk, then run as you build your experience & knowledge of how the formations will react.

PL001 report starts on page 344.

15 prospects with Gross 2U reserves around 1.3 Billion bbls.

Page 219 onwards is a new reserves report (in English) by NSAI on all Navitas' assets, including PL001.

No update on the 27th Feb SL asset report, as (unsurprisingly) there is no new information.

Isn't "Snap!" about his limit?

Hi Len,

It's the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil by the Orange One that I find bizarre.

Therefore giving the Russians more cash when they are providing intel and support to the Iranians who are - amongst other things - targeting US bases...

Hi LTT,

Good to see someone reads what I post ;)

Divi, you keep claiming that 1st Oil won't be until 2029-30, but never give any reasons as to why.

Perhaps you could enlighten the rest of us as to your reasoning and / or evidence?

Oh, and just posting "DYOR" just means that you have no evidence to back up your claim.

Hi Paul,

Yes, there is clearly a risk of cost and schedule overruns if the FPSO was scheduled for refit in Dubai and now has to go elsewhere.

My guess is a Far East shipyard, as Turkey could do it but does not have the experience.

As I've just posted in another thread, this has to be of concern to us, as the finances of RKH don't allow for much in the way of potential cost/schedule overruns.

Hopefully Navitas will give some guidance in their meeting next week.

Also bear in mind that The Ukraine - with no Navy - has effectively closed off the Black Sea to Russian ships by the use of drones. That's over a much larger area too. The available reaction time for any sea drone attack (or missiles from the shore) will be very short and so difficult to counter.

Even if the war is declared over today (and only Iran can do that!), it'll be several months before tanker traffic can return to normal, as too many are in the now in the wrong place - a bit like containers after Covid.

Restoring shut in oil production won't be quick either - the taps can be turned off quickly, but it's going to take a while to restart the processing and refining facilities.

Also bringing the Wells back online won't be as simple as just opening the valves.

The majority will be on artificial lift. If it's gas, they'll need to source the gas and line up each Well individually to kick them off. If it's ESP's, start up is by far the greatest load that they see and so they are prone to failure at that point.

Slugging the process facilities will be an issue to deal with, as in most Wells the oil and water will separate in the well. So you'll get an initial slug of oil, followed by a slug of water before you get back to 'normal' production.

It's also common for Wells )not so much in the Carbonates) to not get back to their previous production levels after a long period of shut in, as the prolonged exposure to water can cause formation damage.

So I think we'll see a raised oil price for several months after any truce is declared to open the Hormuz Strait.

And am I the only one that finds it truly bizarre that the Russians are providing material and intelligence support to the Iranians, but the Orange One is lifting sanctions on them?