Member Info for zeusfurla

Jerry I also have a logical mind and like to understand why this has not moved. All of your reasons could have some weight. Whilst there may be some manipulation going on that looks more preventative to me of a sp rise rather than to push the sp down. I haven't observed any obvious driving down of the sp on weak volumes although I may have missed it.

I'd give some weight to the following - there aren't enough PI buyers out there to counter the sellers (an obvious point I know!) (and as you say in 4 no insto's yet), wider market sentiment/risk-off mindset (I have also observed some downward pressure on other shares which is not easy to understand), short-termism from PI's ie 'if there isn't going to be an upward sp move this week/month' I'm moving my cash elsewhere - I've detected this elsewhere and looking at the rapid sp rise from the 20's seems to be a factor here. Doesn't fully explain why PI's aren't getting back in on good news though - back to the wider sentiment argument again? Maybe NM has overplayed the news a bit but this has generated wider interest for the longer-term although not additional buying in recent weeks.

I am focussing back on the fundamentals which are very positive, whether they lead to short-term or medium-term returns. I still think we'll have some major interest in the next 3 months but if not still a strong hold for me.

HI jerry and thanks for your respectful posts and insights which I appreciate.
The original redcloud report has SOLG's peers as identified by redcloud and those rated below SOLG are -

Nevada Copper Corp. TSX:NCU CAN$0.44/share CAN$291m US$0.012EV/CuEq CAN$1.35NAVPS 0.33x P/NAV
NGEx Resources Inc. TSX:NGQ $1.00 $229m $0.007 $3.67 0.27x
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. TSX:NDM $0.62 $195m $0.001 $4.15 0.15x
Western Copper and Gold Corporation TSX:WRN $0.84 $85m $0.004 $4.50 0.19x

Those rated above SOLG are Entree Resources Ltd TSX:ETG, Highland Copper Co Inc TSXV:HI and Trilogy Metals Inc AMEX:TMQ.

It's worth noting that the combined MC of ALL of these companies is approx the same as SOLG's MC.

Alastair Thanks for that - I wasn't aware of mapochs and certainly gives another potential option (why not both?) to Fortune.

Nick Thanks for posting what is a fairly conservative update. Only 1 figure I'd highlight and assume slightly differently and that is the exchange rate. Post-Brexit (still the most likely outcome at some point) we could have $1.45/£1. However, this is offset by likely better figures on other assumptions leading to around the same answer. The overall view is clearly that the SP is well-undervalued on whatever assumptions used.

I thought between 806 and 810.

schlemiel Thanks for posting this update. Given that redcloud are hosting tomorrow's webinar, the positivity around the new release and focus on takeout prices shows the direction of travel for SOLG in the near future imho. Waiting with interest for tomorrow's webinar and hope to pick up a few more nuggets of info.

ohwhatanight Thanks for the reminder - I sometimes forget we have Toronto to look at. Agree chilling is the way to be when waiting for the good news that is yet to come this week and beyond. Watching SP's go down (and sometimes up!) can drive you mad.

Schlemiel L2 is useful in timing buys imho and I have already made back what I paid for it a month or 2 ago. It can be difficult to know why 500k's sit where they do but I'd rather know that than not know it. Maybe some interested insto's (jerry's post) waiting to invest trying to hold sp down? I've been out most of the day and surprised to see the sp dip but it is another indication to me of action behind the scenes.

Pbow Not likely to turn around so quickly. President Lenin Moreno was elected in early 2017 for a 4 year term so early 2021 before the next election.

S4 I agree that NM has set up 4 concessions for the reasons you state. However there are 2 sides in play here which makes it interesting and leads to many different views on this board. Whilst NM may like to sell 1 by 1 with a stream of special divs my own view is that BHP and others will want it all. The question is when? I don't think we can look at the past and say they and others will wait until there is a high degree of certainty around the resources across more of the tenements before bidding. The world of new T1 discoveries is now a very limited one. So it comes down to price and balancing risk against reward - when does the 1st player jump which would start others. And then what is NM reaction in the absence of hard numbers across other tenements. My own view is that a bid will come in 3-6 months (prob not from BHP initially) but I could be wrong.

I'd be interested to know if there is any thought in Nick's mind to spin off/sell Cascabel to fund the other tenements.

I wonder if BHP are not taking up their Board position just now so that they can top up to the max stake agreed as part of the recent placing with SOLG. This would make sense to me. For me the key was the 2nd stake they took. This is a statement that they are going to buy SOLG sooner or later. To do this as cheaply as possible they will likely top up their stake to the max in the near future. Although some have said BHP have plenty of cash if they topped up at say 40-50p (if they can get that price), it would save them maybe £50m plus on a final acquisition price. Maybe they are behind the icebergs sitting above the current SP around 39-45p? I still think they want all of SOLG. We are not that far away from putting a reasonable estimated NPV on Alpala. The question then becomes how much more than that would they pay and how much more would Nick want. There will be a gap there. I now think it unlikely (but possible) that Cascabel or ENSA will go separately but who knows? BHP won't want anyone else to get a controlling stake in the rest of SOLG if they have bought Cascabel which means that if a bid comes in, they will have no choice other than to counter-bid in the dark for assets with unknown value. This all means that drilling outside Cascabel becomes really important for SOLG to try and put even a guesstimated value on some of the other tenements. All this is speculation after a nice run through the streets earlier today.

2Luke Thanks from me - great insight from the man himself and firmly rules out JV. Put up (the cash) or shut up. He's excited about the prospects. Agree S4 - this won't go cheap and may or may not take a while - who knows? Well over £2 to start bidding imho. Makes the current SP look silly. Now looking forward to the PEA even more as it looks like delivering a strong economic case which is only likely to get better next year.

An example of a very generous dividend policy exists at Central Asia Metals. The Board has a stated policy to distribute between 30-50% of free cash flow annually which the last time I looked was around 6% of market cap. That would be WAY too generous here in my view given future growth potential. I recall Fortune also talking about capital discipline which may tie into a policy announcement in some way.

DG1/FR Thanks for really good posts. There's more than 1 way to look at the current situation with SOLG and we don't know what is going to happen which makes it all more interesting. I agree that Nick is a straightforward kind of guy but also that he can overdo the positives at times - I think that is due to excitement and enthusiasm and not any intent to deceive.

Reasons for Nick to hold/reject any bids (thanks to DG1/FR) -

- huge potential unknown upside from 11 or more areas - this can't be understated but will takes years to crystallise
- low current SP
- his place in history/legacy
- he's an explorer and given the number of different jobs he has just now in no mood to retire yet

Reasons to think SOLG will be sold -

- he's on a PR/charm offensive again
- 60p options
- dearth of new copper mines esp tier 1
- BHP and majors need to secure long-term supply to make money and need to control it
- early MRE2 and +4 Mt Cu eq flagged up for MRE3
- Nick wants to do something else with his life (??) - speculative idea only!

Some other JV/partial sale option - also a real option for Nick but less attractive to the majors

I'm sure there are lots of other pros and cons that could be added. I'm looking forward to next week's webinar to pick up on the tone/mood music.

Thanks all.

Alfa I like the 'pass the bomb' reference - seems to capture the high risk game quite well. Seemed like the SP was being chased up a bit yesterday by the MM's and your analysis helps put it in context. News within the week will reinforce the current SP. We need to lose a few shorter-term holders.

Schlemiel Thanks again for your quality posts - very well-informed and helpful. I also recall Anna I think saying that there would be more regional news out before the end of the year which may provide some more positives. We now have an official TIER 1 asset and are heading towards a PEA that will show a viable proposition for a mine, albeit it is still early days and more resource is to be added.

I sense quite a bit of frustration and impatience on this board - maybe the SP is not rising fast enough for some? I see future SP gains coming suddenly on the back of further interest from majors in the next few months. Patience is needed and tolerance of each other - we are all on the same side here! After all the purpose of this board is to inform ourselves and others as well as promote SOLG to a wider audience. Without retaining a sense of decency we will not attract the new PI's that we know are out there. Best wishes to all.

Funnt thing that 6 of 7 MM's have a bid at 43.0p right now and 4 of 7 are offering at 45.0p. You'd almost think they were working together........

BBN Thanks for the time you have taken to post such an objective, balanced, clear and lucid synthesis of where BE sits at present within the broader BMN. I'll look on with interest over the next few years to see how this all develops. A BMN holding is for life (or at least a long time) as I am coming to understand.

gv Agree entirely with your sentiments. No time to take an early bid and I don't see Nick doing that anyway. 5% value at 172p could easily be exceeded given the lack of supply of major copper discoveries. That's why I think it would take £2+ or Nick will just sit back and wait. He has the sweeties in the sweetie shop.