Member Info for ZENGAS

In terms of the institutions who have added in this placing, the previous averages were estimated to be around the 36-39p level. After this placing i can't see the best of them with an average below 29-30p now.

Holdings above 3% which would be about 36.5m currently.

Premier Miton 90.7 to 109.3m = + 18.6m (8.76%)
TT International 90.25m to 120m = + 29.78m (9.62%)
Standard Life 82.78m to 121.439m = + 38.65m (9.73%)
Capital Group 64.59m to 96.128m = + 31.52m.
VR Global 57.125m = unchanged.
Ingals & Snyder 53.78m to 72.76m = + 18.9m.
JO Hambro 51.384m to 64.4m = + 13m
Cavendish 51.2m = unchanged.
At least 6 of the biggest institutions added 150m shares.

CEO + 11.6m. M Iannotti + 1.7m. Chairman + 258k. Sir S O'Brien + 258k. D Clarkson + 517k = Directors total + 14.33m.

Accounts for 164.3m out of the 251m new issue. Leaves 86.7m hopefully taken up by existing/new institutions/HNWs that are below the 3% level. Stated as oversubscribed.

If they were happy with the financing structure arrangements, it's good enough for me.

Seeing how you made it personal from a few weeks ago under another alias Senn i'll make it clear for you.

Yes some of us are all missing your point, me in particular !

While the pace of growth mightn't be to somes liking (mine included), being patient is delivering the projects at a vast discount to what Tullow/Seplat/Kosmos and others paid out previously. Maybe you should look at their float prices by comparrison and see where they are in the same timescale if you think this is SAVE CEO specific.

I have acknowledged Rockrose being a multi bagger and sale at £18.50.
You did excellent to buy at £2.80 and £5.90.

That's well and good for the you personally but with a free float of 3m shares and a minsicule market size it was not on my radar to be able to buy or build a serious holding nor the same for plenty of others all at the same time i expect.

There's is nothing wrong with Kistos either on the same strategy to be a multi bagger but the same conditions exist if i wanted to build a serious holding. You only have to look at NMS and see how small volumes push the s/p significantly up or down so it won't work for many potential investors to bother with and if you're competing with others for stock.

I'll give them one thing at least from the latest £48.8m and 31.5m shares placed at 155p - 704,000 were on primary bid raising £1.09m so hopefully many smaller investors do well.

Trek my reference to infantile comments was not directed at you or the 99% of posters on this board but in relation to the attempt at making a comparrison to RockRose Energy as to how Save should have done it is infantile. Save is building a vastly bigger company in scale ie multi billion bl oil potential that the RockRoses of the world didn't have and with just under 370 mmboe 2P/2C so far, and a mix of asetts that protect from oil price fluctuation, employment scale, Operatorship and Geography etc - as are the Tullows, Kosmos, Seplats etc of the world.

Rockrose Energy was a 37 from float or 12.3 bagger from the 1st acquisition but not as clear cut as it looks when you consider all that was available to PIs if you were lucky enough to build a decent sized holding.

13/1/2016 IPO @ 50P 10m shares in issue = £5m m/cap (with about £4m net cash from the float).
Suspended 14/9/16 - 4/7/17 = 9 months making a NON Operated acquistion with 5.33m shares @ 150p.
Suspended 18/10/17 - 19/2/18 = 4 months making a NON Operated acquisition.
24/5/18 Made a further NON operated acquisition.
22/11/18 2.923m shares bought back in a tender offer.

Suspended 25/2/19 - 24/7/19 = 5 months to make an acquisition of which they transitioned to being an operator for the first time.
30/4/20 Average production expected for 2020 = 20,000 boepd. They had $375m cash of which $59m was restricted. restricted.

2/9/20 Sold at £18.50/sh with 13.35m shares in issue = £247m m/cap. They were in busines as an operator for barely a year when they sold up, so you wonder how long the negotiations were going on prior in negotiating their sale ?.

Directors and Institutions held 80% so with 20% free for PIs that meant barely 3m shares to go around PIs.

Nothing wrong with Rockrose at all as a company but when you factor in the above and the complexity of deals by company - enough said !.

The base case is for FCF of $279m/yr Slide 6. (At $70/b = $295m. $80/b = $322m/yr).
Net debt in the recent broker coverage was for $370m end 2021.
The Acquisition costs Slide 4 = $658m + $60m for other = $718m.
They have a $400m loan facility of which they draw down $300m, $32m from AKs vehicle and the $65m equity raise = $397m - That's what it's costing us. The other $321m comes from the transaction adjustment = total $718m. (There's still a further $100m in that accordion facility available to call on.)
$397m new debt and the $370m Accugas net debt puts the net debt at $767m. That's going to be paid down by $60m this year, $186m next, $170m in 24 and $239m in 25 (total $655m base case) so should reduce rapidly but i expect it to revolve and where AK says no more equity issues i expect it will actually pay for further very major assets which in themselves then increase FCF. I fully expect the net debt to rise perhaps to $1.2b if another significant opportunity appears which in turn will have an adjustment on completion. This has always been my thoughts on why we will get to and overtake the likes of Tullow/Kosmos/ both with $2.3b net debt on 58-70k boepd where they are currently and Seplat. We are progressively doing it incase anyone hasn't noticed - see below.
Imo we can no longer just compare all these companies on an entirely simple reserves/production ratio because SAVE will have a significant income stream from a major pipeline.
Going forward SAVEs pro-rata revenue is $975m/yr.
Seplat 9 months to Sept 2021 including an underlift factored in was $535m which should be $713m pro-rata for the full year. Save are ahead !
Tullows revenue is forecast at $1454m (Save are doing 67% of that yet have only 33.33% of their net debt pile). M/cap £665m + $2.3b net debt = EV £2.37b.
To achieve par revenue with TLW, SAVE needs another $480m ie about 18,000 new bopd equivalent. It can come from ramping up production but will take time - imo it will come from another acquistion which would cost another $400m including an adjustment discount. This is where we're on a par with Tullow and how i see our net debt going up to $1.2b but $1b less than TLW.
Using the same EV of £2.37b = 46.5p currently for Tullow ie = 113p for SAVE on 1.3b shares (105p fully diluted). Bear in mind that over the next 4 years SAVEs net debt should fall by $650m/£475m worth 34p fully diluted (but i expect about £200m will be poured into Niger).
If people can't get it, fathom the growth opportunity, or rant on about Niger delays or dismayed at a 19.35p placing or the pace of meticulous asset building or why we are only up a few pence on Friday that's their perogative and i personally don't care one iota about some of the infantile comments from some because i see the bigger picture of where we are right now on the above. Niger is NOT the only show in town. One part is my trajectory for 100p (see above) and the other 100p is more than achievable from part of Niger.

My notes -

By 30/6/22 C-C assets will have cost $700m less an expected $321m discount = $369m net.

By same mid year i believe net debt on the other assets will be about $3-$320m ?
Total net debt about $670-$690m as i read it.

Opening with 29% dilution for over 100% increase in asset value.

Q1/2 Nigeria debt refinancing.

10:10 Q1 Announce renewable energy projects. They've got to be profitable and got to be big.

10:37 No further RTO suspensions envisaged anymore. No issue of new equity for acquisitions.

11:00 Niger 5k production from existing discoveries then progress to 25k within the 1st 5 yrs and 50k after.

Fund Niger Base Case from cash flow. Can now debt finance. Breakeven $20/b. Doesn't need a partner as it's their flagship asset and mentions alignment with pipeline completion. Will build a pipeline to the connection for Zinder. Exploration Q3 2023 after 1st oil. "We could go earlier but managing expectations.". With no partner and ability to finance this leaves 100% of the entire project upside though never will rule out a farm in but seems more inclined to go it alone.

Chad has deeper exploration but not a priority now or near future.

Presentation re cash performance/production etc = worst case.

Other acquisitions on the radar.

Not from my notes but what appeals here is like Nigeria, Chad has very significant 2C, 3P/3C etc. This gives the opportunity to produce significantly from the assets over x amount of years, generate revenue/pay debt and the assets retain their original 2P case. (ie as in Nigeria initial 27% reserves upgrade in barely 2 years while still allowing for the years of production since acquisition).

Notes again - As for growth - it's for capital growth not just revenue growth. Won't make the mistake which has beset other companies of paying a set percentage of FCF for dividends. Instead small $10m min div and the rest into new assets for ongoing growth.

Happy with AIM as are institutions as it is the right mix of flexibility. Not saying they won't ever move but not imminent.

All in all a mix of both production and infrastructure assets and a team already in place for major renewable projects and they aren't going into these just for the sake of it. Intend to stay ahead of their game re competitiveness and will be truly well diversified.

Re Porcshefunds post -

"A total NPV10 value of $982.4m less $400m debt equates to 35p per share based on a diluted total 1.25bn shares. Add Nigeria at 20p/30p plus Niger, debt refinancing, new customers etc. I am happy with my conservative target of 75p within a months."

Prior to the acquisitions F/Cap had a core value based on 2P/2C after debt of 55p.
Their price target was 62p and this only included finding a net risked 10 mmbls from the next Niger drilling (10 wells).
That was based on 996.4m shares. It also was BEFORE the reserves upgrade in Nigeria.

So with 1250m shares now - core value for the above falls to 44p and the price target would also fall to 49.5p.
If you add on Porcshefunds net $582.4m for the acquisitions (£1/$1.35) = £431m/1250m shares = 34.5p.

Wil be interesting to see what F/Cap now come out with but surely that should move their core value to approx 78.5p and the target price to at least 84p which imo doesn't include anything for the Nigeria reserves upgrade, any potential uplift in Doba production or the possible 30% upside in throughput via the pipeline mentioned today from other operators and only those 10 mmbls risked in Niger.

Was expecting 300m extra shares and a possible purchase price of around $600m based on the original Exxon deal only.

Just over 2 weeks go we learned the size of the deal increased by 70-85% pipeline/production interests.

$400m loan ($300m+ $100m accordion), $32m from AK + $64m placing.

258.5m placing shares and for AKs loan about 102m warants at 23.5p in a few years so roughly the acquisition has cost us 360m shares = only 60m more than i envisaged plus the size of the deal more than compensates by being 70-85% larger (pipeline/production) and allowing for the 19.35p placing price. If it had been done at 30p placing price would have gotten us another $35m but definitely for me neither here nor there. 58m of those placing shares will be EBT shares if i have read it right with an exercise price of 38p on hurdle of 42p. As for AKs warrants for the loan - he may as well have it as some other lender.

$376m existing net debt ie total net debt seems to be no more than $800m-$810m - again based on the much larger deal.

At current production from all assets about $300m FCF/Yr

Once approved - 2P now 183.1 mmboe and 2C of 176 mmboe = 359 mmboe 2P/2C. A billion bl P2 company in the making ???.

Doba = 22.5k bopd + 22k Accugas = 44.5K boepd.

If Save can up production by 12-15k from these it put's them on a 60k boepd basis.

Overall i'm more than happy on the shares in issue and well within my target of being much better value than those 60-70k producers i've mentioned previously with $2.3b net debt. Looking forward to the analyst valuations & targets to follow.

Always amazes me the sometimes the sensationalist thread titles. We all know well and good what has been going on for years in the region.

Perenco are interested both in Chad & S.Sudan.
A new Canadian oil Co has bought into block H lake Chad area.
I would say this is not SAVE going out on a limb without prior thought and a strategic outlook versus risk/reward and who is backing them and by how much ?. You can't go there without investor support and a key backer on a whim.

As for South Sudan - It's an expression of interest with Petronas. I would be amazed if we were beyond that right now given dd requirements.
It's worth a look because it's a sizeable opportunity in a country 2.6 times the size of the entire UK divided into various regions. Despite a civil war in South Sudan - from what i see oil production has continued through it stopping mainly only in 2013 for the level of compensation dispute payments to be made to Sudan due to it ending up with the a huge chunk of the oil production when Sudan split into 2 countries around 2010 . In return Sudan needs the Souths exports for tarrif income.
South Sudan has the compensation almost paid which will greatly increase their income. The new South Sudan licencing rounds got going mid year.
Of course there is still trouble there. Life goes on in these countries and their income is predominantly oil based. No doubt there are human rights abuses by various factions that make up the government and the opposition, but if there is no oil production what does that do for the struggling economies they have and they have to evolve and transition. I do not think that SAVE would be going into any of these countries to destroy their ESG credentials and would be doing so to make a difference on one hand and a risk/reward opportunity for investors on the other.

Final one -

If this is accurate then Petronas is around 40,000 bopd in S.Sudan.

Supposedly at 6/10/2017
Blocks 1 & 4
Operating consortium GPOC
CNPC 40%, Petronas 30%, ONGC 25%, NilePet 5%.

Block 5A
Operating consortium SPOC.
Petronas 68%, ONGC 24%, NilePet 8%.

Blocks 3 & 7
Operating Consortium DPOC.
CNPC 41%, Petronas 40%, NilePet 8%, Sinpec 6%, TriOcean Energy 5%.
As of Oct 6 2017.
https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/GI224948/South-Sudan-Major-oil-blocks

and from that earlier oil price article

Jul 01, 2021,
Blocks 3 and 7 in Upper Nile have fallen to 103,000 barrels per day from an initial 120,000 bpd,
Blocks 1, 2 and 4 have dropped from 53,000 bpd to 48,000 bpd.

Jul 01, 2021,
Ministry of Petroleum Under secretary Awow Daniel Chuang told Bloomberg that Blocks 3 and 7 in Upper Nile have fallen to 103,000 barrels per day from an initial 120,000 bpd, while Blocks 1, 2 and 4 have dropped from 53,000 bpd to 48,000 bpd.
Overall, crude oil production has declined from 185,000 bpd to 165,000 bpd.

Currently, South Sudan has five producing blocks, operated by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Malaysia’s Petronas.

Landlocked South Sudan could be a gold mine.

It’s estimated that it’s 90% unexplored, but a five-year civil war took its toll, and delayed chances of new exploration and goals of returning to prewar production levels of up to 400,000 barrels per day.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/South-Sudan-Hits-Peak-Production-As-It-Prepares-For-First-Oil-Auction.html

Bit early to speculate but todays news shows that Save are clearly on the look out for cheap opportunistic divestment assets. 27 were reported as being reviewed so who's to say they won't snap up perhaps 3-4 sizeable deals over the course of 12-24 months. They've obviously got some kind of financial backing that perhaps other oil Cos aren't and couldn't be aware of.
I said before , l think this could pan out for buying production assets that could deliver 70-100k boepd and at a deep net debt discount to those oil Cos i've already mentioned.

All from me for now, Merry Christmas !!

Not sure what S. Sudans production is for Petronas but it's a main player there. Sudans production was about 400k with maybe 250 in the South which is down to about 150k now. If on a par with Chad i'd expect maybe 10k region ?.

About 80-90% of the countrys oil potential is undeveloped.

If you want an idea of the S.Sudan oil scale it's all part of the same Central Africa rift system which covers the Chad Doba basin and Agadem basins.

South Sudan (Muglad & Melut basins) about 3+ billion bls.

Can be seen on Page 280 of CGGs 2020 CPR for Savannah so definitely huge scale.

****** "Petronas has not given up hope of selling all its permits to the same player" *****

' 20/10/2021
Petronas plans its difficult departure
The steady decline in oil production in South Sudan, now at around 154,000 b/d compared to 400,000 b/d at the time of the country's independence in 2011, could well accelerate. The reason for this rather dismal outlook is that one of the long-standing investors in the oil sector, Malaysian state-owned company Petronas, no longer intends to invest in South Sudan. The oil company has made it quite clear to President Salva Kiir's government that it plans to leave the country and that its teams are looking for new buyers as soon as possible.

10/12/21
As previously reported by Africa Intelligence (AI, 20/10/21), the Malaysian oil major Petronas wants to exit its producing licences in South Sudan. Petronas has not given up hope of selling all its permits to the same player. Permits on offer could include those in South Sudan and also those in the Doba basin in Chad. '

A definitive date (with no around) of 31/12/21 is good to see. From this article it appears we are interested in Perencos South Sudan assets.

Jefferies devotes itself to facilitating withdrawal of Petronas from Africa

The investment bank Jefferies is doing all it can to speed up the Malaysian major's withdrawal from the region.
The announcement in mid-December that Savannah Energy is to acquire Petronas's assets in Chad (35% of the Doba blocks) and Cameroon (29% of the Kribi oil pipeline) for the equivalent of three-and-a-half years of revenues (a little over $266m) merely marks the first stage in a much broader withdrawal from the African stage. As we previously reported (AI, 10/12/21), the Malaysian major is also keen to offload its ageing South Sudanese assets as soon as possible, with Savannah again having expressed an interest in their acquisition, as has the French family-run company Perenco. According to our sources, Petronas has turned to the London-based investment bank Jefferies for guidance on the Chad and Cameroon transaction (which is still awaiting government approval) as well as on the South Sudan deal.

Dominant position

Run by Andrew Knott, Savannah looks set to become the dominant player in Chad's oil sector. If the government and oil minister Oumar Torbo Djarma give the green light to the acquisition of Petronas's assets (12,000 bpd), Savannah will possess a 75% stake in the Doba concession. The junior is currently putting the final touches to the purchase of ExxonMobil's 40% stake in these same deposits. This acquisition, worth around $360m and the modalities of which were negotiated back in June, has been complicated by the protests of ExxonMobil's Chadian staff, who are demanding guarantees that they will be re-employed by Savannah (AI, 21/10/21).

Since then, Savannah's teams have been conducting due diligence on the ground. But quite apart from the employee protests, Perenco has been doing its best to torpedo the negotiations by attempting to cast doubt (so far unsuccessfully) on Savannah's capacity to raise the necessary funds for the transaction and to deploy staff with the required level of competence to take over operations at Doba.

Assuming that the Chad and South Sudan deals go through, Petronas will be left with just its producing blocks in Sudan, which since October have been the subject of ongoing arbitration in London involving the Sudanese state, which has seized the Malaysian firm's assets in the country.

Porsche i agree.

Previous target was 62p and a deal of this magnitude should more than reflect your targets. (Said before this is now 70-80%+ bigger than first announced in June).

I beleive they are now in a position to buy assets that will see them significantly ahead in production numbers over Tullow or Kosmos (both $2.3b net debt) and with a likely much smaller net debt position.

Think about this scenario - If you were a major investor (such as Vitol) would you see better value in TLW/KOS or could you create a company that was bigger/better (ie SAVE) in terms of value for a huge discount and therefore greater reward ?. Every asset acquisition has been material and over the next 12-18 months (maybe less) i expect the goal is to reach a very critical mass compared to others in the sector but at a whopping discount in terms of debt comparrison brought about by the divestment opportunities.

Making no allowances for capital raised or even the discount from 1/1/21 for Doba -
Accugas currently $376m net debt. (23,000 boepd)
Doba fields & C-C Pipeline $626m cost (25-37,000 bopd on uplift).
In 12 months time $1b net debt reduced by $100m from Accugas & likely at least $100m from Doba to $800m.

Another $600m likely could buy another/combination of 25,000 bopd somewhere before uplift.
Net debt becomes about $1.4b and anywhere between 70k to closer to 100k boepd on uplift.

If such a case happens and no reason to doubt the possibility of it given the size of this acquisition and the number being screened (27) and the references to timescales in having some complete - we could be over 50% ahead of Tullow and Kos in terms of their current production but almost perhaps $1b/£750m of less net debt. That net debt differential imo alone is worth an extra 40-50p to Save on a valuation comparrison.

Our much smaller net debt would fall far faster because it's taking less to service it by comparrison plus it would have a greater multiple of production against it compared to TLW/KOS currently.

Then factor the scale of the Niger opportunity where they may finance part of it while the production assets throw off significant cash flow in what we hope will be a fairly tight energy market over the next few years in terms of pricing.

Just out of interest on Save chasing the ENI assets -

https://www.eni.com/en-IT/eni-worldwide/africa/tunisia.html

Production for 2020 was about 5.5k boepd but not sure if this is gross or net.

But there is something equally of interest If you scroll through the link - ENI have 2 Tunisian photovalvic plants - saving considerable tonnage of CO2 and putting 20 GW/hr into the grid which might be something that is right up SAVEs street for ESG, greener credentials for investors during the transition and would add more infrastructure assets with their own earnings capability (like the pipeline tarriffs).

'Perenco takes over Mazarine assets and targets ENI permits

21/12/2021
The French family-owned junior Perenco sought to obtain the state's authorisation after agreeing with Mazarine Energy to buy its Tunisian assets. Mazarine had been trying for several years, with the help of the boutique bank Stifel, to find candidates to buy its blocks. But the process dragged on and in the end the transaction between Perenco and Mazarine was made without intermediaries.

Mazarine is headed by former Shell executive Edward van Kersbergen. His operations director and right-hand man, Baptiste Masi, is a former Perenco employee who worked in the DR Congo, Gabon and, until 2017, in Turkey. Bagging Mazarine's permits is a boon for Perenco as some of them adjoin those of the French group.

Perenco is also interested in buying ENI's licences in Tunisia. As Africa Intelligence revealed (AI, 01/11/21), it is collaborating with the Norwegian firm Petronor with a view to taking over the assets. But Savannah Energy currently seems to be best placed to obtain them. Savannah, after signing a deal to buy out Petronas and ExxonMobil in the Doba Basin in Chad for more than $600m, is on the up. It is present in Niger and in gas in Nigeria.'

Deby lobbied hard for CNPC/Niger to build the pipeline via Chad. It was originally planned to go that way but the main reason was apparently CNPC having control over their own exports rather than dependence on Exxon/Petronas being 70% owners of the main C-C pipeline.

Even in recent days we saw the story of Perenco in AI touching on the same subject (whether true or not) that they would have to depend on others for the export of their oil.

With SAVE having 70% and the C-C govts 30%, it has to be an incentive for all 3 governments to eventually export Niger oil via this route to get that main pipeline filled to as much capacity as possible.

More oil revenue for Niger.
More Tariff revenue for Chad and Cameroon.
Significant sales volume for Save (plus of course additional tarriff earnings).

Block H adajcent to Agadem which is over the border on the Chad side is imo going to need the C-C route for obvious reasons so they will have to contribute to the link as much as Save would need to, so it could be relatively inexpensive to finance that connection in the scheme of things.

It's going to be an obvious boon for any future farm in partner or future takeover of Save or sale of the agadem interest to have a very sizeable 2nd export route which has already approximately 100k bopd spare capacity and i beleive expansion upside as it never exceeded its original capacity.

With another 1-2 likely substantial acquisitions from divestments, i see Save being on the watchlist of others as it puts these building blocks in place for north of 150k boepd as i see it. We should be circa 45-47k now which is almost 1/3rd of the way there before any work at lifting production.

Sorry to hear that Agadem, best wishes to you and have made a contribution for your charity.

Z.

Thanks for that Porsche - a new EQS would be lovely !

Seriously though, i don't see myself honestly doing anything more than anyone else. I've just tried to follow every angle on Save as i think its been a great company in the making even though its been slower than expected to date. I hope we all do well here.
As for charity, i'll leave it to everyone as they go along. I've always had the belief if you give what you can, it always comes back to you better in other ways. Perhaps now it's a season of goodwill, it doesn't do no harm to dig a bit deeper for something or someone that may make a bit of a difference. I'm sure many people think that way anyway.

Anythings possible Agadem and i'm sure Niger will eventually garner real interest too as we surely must be preparing to do something in tandem as the pipleline completes.

Haven't heard or spoken to D in ages. Personally i was intending to stop coming to the BBs by this year end. I'm in a few other stocks and don't even bother contributing much at all on them now. There are loads of new investors joining up and feeling their way and it gets busy. If it hits serious daily postings i guess there won't be a lot of point. Half of what's posted is forgotten before the month is out sometimes and the way LSE is laid out its hard to go back and read up because nothings numbered like the other bb. This has been a great board and great posters, even duster for the light hearted criticism of us all.