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So far there has been 750 MW of Wind & Solar projects announced with 100 MW of that being needed to run the Doba oil fields.

In addition "We expect to announce our involvement in further large-scale greenfield power projects over the course of the next 12 months"

There could well be a doubling of what has been announced so far.

There is a lengthy article on Africas biggest Renewable Energy Developers and were rank unknowns a number of years ago. Looking at some of these and in terms of what SAVE has announced could propel them to equal or greater status for a few of them.

"At 300 MW, the Centrale Solaire de Komé would be the largest solar project in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) as well as constituting the largest battery storage project in Africa"- SAVEs Friday announcement.

In the article, Scatec of Norway with $1.5b of debt with a net 1,750 MW has a market cap presently of £1.2b/$1.5b and which has previously been almost 3X higher. Combine this kind of potential value creation to a very significant upstream and midstream oil/gas business as well as exploration plus feed through from divestments and overall Save could have some serious growth opportunity where value projections previously may only have been the tip of the iceberg.

Article link https://africaoilgasreport.com/2021/06/energy-transition/africas-biggest-renewable-energy-developers/

Saves CC deal
22,500 bopd production.
103.8 mmbo P2 + 82.7 mmbo 2C and $125m/yr FCF.
Also includes the pipeline which brings a further $59.4m/yr FCF.
$658m cost with a $321m adjustment backdated to 1/1/21 at closing = $338m net.
Strip out 1/3rd of the cost for the pipeline and the production assets are possibly $450m at the outset to $210m at closing.

Seplat Shell Nigeria deal 25/2/22.
78k bopd + 17k boepd gas = 95,000 boepd.
409 mmbo P2 + 211 bcf Gas = 444 mmboe P2.
Significant gas upside.
$1,283m with an unstated adjustment backdated at closing to 1/1/21 but possibly knocking $3-$400m of that price at closing ?.
"implies an attractive EV / 2P metric of $2.9/boe, with significant gas upside"

Save Current net debt is estimated to be $569m this yr/end falling to $134m in the next 2.5 years months at $60/b oil.

The above deal pricing might give some cost idea to the Petronas S.Sudan assets (Petronas were keen for one buyer to take the CC/SD assets). It could be possible that they might go for under $1 billion at time of closing.

From the 18/1/22 in AI - "The success of the two operations in Chad, which are still subject to the approval of the oil and finance ministries, is however only one step in an even more ambitious plan by the Savannah-Vitol duo. Savannah is also looking with great interest at Petronas shares for sale in South Sudan. The British junior informed Petronas of this during the negotiations in Chad. The assets represent some 75,000 bpd for Petronas, with reserves of 300m barrels".

If that were to happen, it could place SAVE as an approx 100k bopd producer + another 20k boepd gas and a net debt profile of $1.5b this year end (again if a deal was concluded in the next 9 months).

'If' these assets were purchased and throw off the same FCF as CC production assets (not pipeline) then overall FCF from all assets incl Accugas would imo rise to around $700m/yr @ $60/b oil.

The net debt profile should still fall to the same projected level in 2.5 years ie $134m.

So with significant FCF of up to $700m/yr imo at $60/b oil and the net debt down to near zero in 2.5 years surely they can think about using $1b of net debt again to seriously move on with the following and 'IF' OPL 310 is secured it could be a 130 - 300 mmbo+ reserve asset for future development and 25k+ bopd net production.
Niger up to 2.4 billion bls risked recoverable mid case and a ramp up to 25k+ production.
A number of major wind farms with an up to 250 MW planned as a first in Niger with imo a possible price tag each of $400m+ likely to be part funded on a long life (15 yr ?) tenure with revenue in 3 years when the original net debt profile is expected to be eli

Tullow and even Canadas Gran Tierra energy mentioned as posssibily entering Nigeria for a slice of Shells divestment assets. TLW already has $1.9b net debt, 60k production, 240 mmbls P2.

' Nigerian billionaire Elumelu teams up with Tullow Oil and Gran Tierra in hope for Shell success.

7/4/22

The recent sale of the Shell Petroleum Development Co in 2021 is whetting the appetite of many international and national investors. To maximise his chances of obtaining the Anglo-Dutch major's onshore assets, businessman Tony Elumelu is putting together a formidable consortium.

Shell Petroleum Development Co (SPDC), one of Shell's subsidiaries in Nigeria, continues to attract potential investors thanks to its output: 10% of the country's gas production and almost 30% of its oil. Several Nigerian groups emerged when it was announced that it would be put up for sale at the end of 2021 as being interested in acquiring SPDC: Seplat (already very busy with the ExxonMobil takeover in the shallow offshore), Heirs Holdings (owned by banker Tony Elumelu), Sahara Energy (a trader led by Tope Shonubi) and ND Western (comprising Niger Delta Petroleum and, among others, Beninese businessman Samuel Dossou).

In recent weeks, despite the announcement of NNPC's first claim on the assets, the four companies have been building consortia to help raise funds - the deal is estimated to be worth at least $3bn - and to put together technical teams capable of convincing Shell to sell SPDC to them.

Elumelu's war machine

Lagos banker Tony Elumelu is trying to put together a trio of strong partners in order to give the Dutch owners as much confidence as possible in his case. According to our sources, he recently brought in the British firm Tullow Oil as a potential partner to share the funds required. Despite his recent investments in oil, such as the 40% stake in OML 17 bought for $800m from TotalEnergies, ENI and Shell in 2021, Elumelu wants to be able to call on a team of geologists brought into the picture by Tullow Oil, operator in Ghana of several fields such as Jubilee and TEN.

Although Nigeria has never been on the junior's radar, its managing director since 2020, Raul Dhir, had already expressed the hope of returning to the country with his former company Delonex Energy during the sale of the Brazilians of Petrobras (AI, 04/02/20).

I posted this across the way which is getting a very bitter place to be at times so just to add to this 40% subject of the 774 mmboe mid case recoverable on OGO (The Lek egm vote for SAVE to have the 17.14% is less than 2 weeks away).

'Regardless of who own's the 22.86% - either Optimum, Afren or technically back with the government and where it is likely to go come August as it expires.

The default was never cured that i can see. Almost a year ago, Lekoil was notified it was in default on OPL310.

24/2/21 - "Pursuant to the CRSA, the default clause stipulates that, following a cure period, if a default has occurred, Optimum and Mayfair shall jointly seek and agree on a buyer to whom Mayfair's 17.14% Participating Interest as well as the financial obligation within OPL 310 will be transferred. Mayfair will also be entitled to a full reimbursement of all amounts due to it, as a result of past costs spent on the asset, from future production proceeds from OPL 310."

We should know in less than 2 weeks if we possess the Mayfair option.
Also nobody seems to have any cash as per 28/2/22 for their share of the 17.14% and imo likely Optimum/Afren/Lekoil don't have it for the 22.86% whoever holds it.

This imo is most telling - 28/2/22 RNS quote - "i.e., the lack of bids during the OPL 310 farm out process, the inability to raise financing for OPL 310 to date, the proximity to the end of the term of the OPL 310 license and the ongoing legal dispute with Optimum)"

Just my opinion but i beleive Save will be chasing a meaningful 40%
I recall from interviews on outstanding historical money owed to 7E AK said they might do something re a stake in a field. Perhaps this might be linked. There's also a need on the governments part to get some of these offshore fields developed and where they don't suffer the same outages as onshore/pipeline theft etc and of course supposedly lower opex.

This would also be an good buy even on the 17.14% alone as when it gets into production there is a huge $253m which would be reclaimable by Save on that interest in the field just as there is also over $120m of back costs to reclaim on the Niger discoveries.

I don't expect it to be plain sailing and alot of negotiations as per 7E but i think we are already on route to a major acquisition.'

OPL310 is being hived out of LEK to SAVE for loan security which imo they will likely enforce. LEK will get a future 0.5% revenure capped at $50m over the course of production . OPL310 expires in barely 4-5 months. Who else has the capital to do anything certainly not Lekoil Nigeria by the looks of it. Also with expiry nearing, what happens to the other 22.86% that Lek bought from Afren but was never allocated (which Afren technically still hold ) ?

I'd say Optimum and potentially Save are working towards a development plan for the licence and the number of partners kept to a minimum.
-----------------------------

Option Agreement on OPL 310
The Company and Savannah Investments will agree a royalty agreement for a 0.5% gross overriding royalty (capped at US$50 million) on crude oil sales attributable to a 17.14% participating interest in OPL 310.
In the event the participating interest in OPL 310 held by Savannah or an Affiliate of Savannah is less than a 17.14% interest, the royalty rate will be 0.5% on that lower participating interest and the USD$50million cap will be appropriately reduced, and in the event the participating interest is greater than 17.14%, the royalty rate will apply to 17.14% of the interest.
===================================
As for Lek itself -
The Convertible Facility
Savannah Investments has the right to, subject to various protections available to the Company: (i) appoint 2 directors to the Board of the Company; (ii) nominate 2 people to be the Company's appointees to the board of Lekoil Nigeria; (iii) receive information about the Company's operations; (iv) provide input into the Company's legal strategy; (iv) to acquire any excess or unallocated equity following exhaustion of the pre-emption rights by shareholders under the Company's Articles of Association; (v) a right of first offer for non-equity finance.
-----------------------------------------------------
Save currently has 23.7% ie 179.99m shares of 758.7m shares in issue.
At the EGM Lekoil will seek to allot and issue another 151.755m shares or 20% of the company.

I wonder will Save subscribe for any or all of these shares at some point to increase their holding/maintain overall stake and at what price and would it ultimately lead to an eventual takeover of LEK perhaps ?

With the exception of the high chance of success rate on the Niger assets, it's worth considering what is actually going on as if there is no news. In the here and now we are in the goal of building ever higher those reserves/2C at extremely low cost without the need for exploration risk. We know that Save will go for producing assets or near producing assets - ie already discovered so no need for major exploration risk.

They are already making a major move towards one of the biggest offshore undeveloped discoveries in 2013 confirmed by 2 wells. I can't beleive that no one is talking about this and though they are helping restructure Lek, this asset is being removed from Lek having any future input on it (development etc).

If the Lekoil EGM vote 2 weeks today on the OPL 310 option agreement is approved we will have that 17.14% and the equivalent of 132 mmbls out of the 774 mmbo estimated recoverable with significant upside. They will imo in effect be buying this much cheaper and less outset risk than having to undertake any exploratory cost of drilling. (Potentially there could be a total of 40% to be had here). It is of course Nigeria but about 15 miles offshore with a likely FPSO and won't be exposed to the onshore risk and should have very low opex/high return.

26/6/13 "The Ogo-1 well has been drilled to a total measured depth of 10,518 ft (10,402 ft true vertical depth subsea), and has encountered a gross hydrocarbon section of 524 ft, with 216 ft of net stacked pay"

19/11/13 "The Ogo-1ST reached a total measured depth (TD) of 17,987 ft (12,050 ft true vertical depth) and encountered hydrocarbon intervals in the same Turonian, Cenomanian and Albian reservoirs that were successfully drilled and logged at the Ogo-1 well. In addition, the syn-rift section encountered a 280 ft true vertical thickness gross hydrocarbon interval."
"Based on the well data, the Partners estimate the P50 to P10 gross recoverable resources range to be significantly ahead of pre-drill expectations at 774 to 1,180 mmboe across the Ogo four-way dipped closed and syn-rift structures. Additional upside potential is expected in the syn-rift play."

If anybody hasn't read up on this - they should and see why Save are chasing this as there are a number of additional sizeable and now derisked structures and about 80% covered by 3D. Although the 2 wells are Ogo-1 and OGO-1 S/T they are actually drills into 2 major prospects 'Eko' & 'Agege' with Ogo, Ado & Shasha plus synrift plays still to account for.
If this deal is secured, this should be absolutely huge for Save, no drill bit risk and close to development sanction = 2P reserves followed later by production.

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