The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I guess a lot depends on if your a half full or half empty type of person. Watcher, I totally get you have your reasons for leaning towards the empty side and when it comes to investing, tbh, having caution can be such a massive pro point. From a monetry point of view being overly confident all the time prob makes for miss timed and unwise investments.
For me however, and this leads on from Jerseys seperate topic just now, everything is just our own opinion. Jersey has stated a lot of positive "what if's", while others negative "what if's". Neither side has evidence, hence being "ifs". I would say in a lot of areas I am maybe more trusting than others, in that if the company says they have "x" amount of high grade, I will run with that unless proven otherwise, which so far that hasn't happened.
This doesn't mean I am not cautious, I very much am as history shows RNS's can prove to be wrong, statements made can never materialise etc, but equally, nothing has been presented to prove otherwise for me yet.
I don't see how a raise proves or disproves how much ore they are mining. A company can be making money but still need more without that meaning they arent hitting what they hoped. I don't see how the two relate.
Roughly, we are aware the monthly figures don't make much. Within mining a few mil a quarter can be swallowed up in a blink of an eye.
Funding can be being worked on and take longer than an investor might hope, without it meaning its not being worked on.
The funding could fall through again, it happens.
This is the risk we take investing in small caps isnt it? Anyone expecting to invest in a small cap and think it isnt super high risk and wont have many failures and bumps on the road on route, is closing their eyes to the real world to me.
Tbh I'm glad they did the new presentation. I have wanted more info and while it still lacks project economics (likely because until funding is sorted they prob don't know themselves what they will be left with), it does add timelines to each project. 3 of those don't have any real forward timeline info, but the Green Hydro does and I'm glad to see it in print.
Its a step in the right direction to me.
Sol, indeed you are spot on in that it isn't easy to make finds at all, or at least not for most sought after minerals to make finds in enough volume, in the right location to allow it to be removed from the ground in a conmercially viable way. That is very hard to do.
In equal measure though, the amount of drills and type of drilling or exploring work POW does isn't ever going to prove a great find. I often think investors in POW misunderstand its operations in that sense.
To get big discoveries you need to be spending many many millions on repeated drills, over several years/campaigns. Not because its exciting but because big discoveries are only known by many multiples of drill results proving a resource is present at a set amount over a set width/depth and length area. Thats simply not possible to be proved by soil grabs or a few thousand mtrs of drilling and thats not being negative to POW either. POW has never pretended to be that.
POWs way isnt to make big discoveries, its to make a discovery and then farm it out to someone to spend money on to prove it up or prove it down.
In a bull market, it holds decent weight as a model as those small could discoveries offer potential. Bear markets are less inclined to give weight to potential.
POWs success, to me, will be in being able to ride out this bear market, without much more drop in SP. If it can do that, then it should be in a lot better place once the markets turn.
As an overall small caps across the board have been getting totally battered for well over a year now. The only ones who have managed to stay level or increase their SP are those who have had real, big, growth creating news.
POW at this stage just isn't that type of the company. It does very small drills or soil grab campaigns which don't prove up any reserves but rather, provide the framework for someone else or another campaign later.
Tati got totally overblown by being called Bonanza grade. Hitting a big Oz 1 mtr drill to everyone else with knowledge within the industry doesn't really count as a Bonanza plot. Those in the know are all to aware one nugget can create those results. That don't mean Tati couldn't be awesome, it really could be, but the work done so far, in a bear market was never going to be enough to move the markets. Anyone telling you it might has either not been in this game that long or is clutching at straws in the hope it might push up the SP.
What PJ did, better than almost anyone else, what create a buzz about the projects even if on paper, there wasn't really much to be excited about. He was a master of words and hats off to him too.
No replacement was ever going to be able to create that same buzz and so the fundementals start doing the talking. The spin outs might in the future prove to be very good streams if income, but as it stands today, minus selling shares within them (some of which can't be sold yet as had restrictions), most, if not all rather are years upon years away from providing POW with an income stream.
Thats the bottom line to me. Without revenue, without any real timeline to revenue either and while in a bear market, POW is going to be up against it.
That doesn't make POW a bad company. I actually like its model in many ways, but it does mean unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat, until the markets turn, just like 95% of other small caps, the ride won't be fun, investment wise.
When it does turn then POW, with such a large array of news sources to flow into it, will no doubt enjoy much brighter times.
Its been a tough hold here and the SP does the talking no matter how many times others tell you its all good, unless your SP is above your buy in price, be that here or any other holding, then its never all good, but as night follows day, bull markets follow bear markets.
Its a shame NH has left tbh, totally understandable, but still a shame.
We haven't yet had a phase 2 funding commitment from RICCA RNS (as the amounts were to be done in batches at set points, with set rewards). At this stage its to hard to tell if that's because they don't see the value right now (for whatever reason), or if we just haven't got to phase 2 point yet.
The limestone part is interested and was def a curve ball, but I would like to see a few more figures put out there for us so that we can see what rev/profits it might bring in.
Thanks AG mate.
Tbh, I've no doubt a lot is going on behind the scenes and I really can't state enough how big a project the GH is. It's very different from a lot of other small caps in that its basically an infrastructure project and they require massive amounts of wonga to get to commissioning.
The funding required is going to be very large, but some of our connectiona fit that bill perfectly.
The end question is always, what slice of the pie will ORCP be left with? With the middle question being, how can the company keep cashflow going on route?
End wise, I feel, even a small slice would still be worth a lot, so for me, its mainly about how does ORCP keep paying for items and wages while working towards funding? So far its been via heavily discounted dilutions, but now that the Mcap is near nothing, that route is a lot less viable.
Do we not think that the large seller Batt Minerals was in large the main reason for this recent drop?
I appreciate, the delay to target hitting won't have helped and makes that 84k per annum by end of 2024 seem unlikely now so that will be weighed in also.
If they can show that Q2 production figures are rising and if Q3 hit that 75% of capacity target, then that would bode well.
Tbh, total hash of a post by me lol.
Its power stuff, interconnectivity, geo and enviro studies they are now working on (not financial, although surely relates), with the view to then progress to FEED stage stuff.
Doh lol. I though he was refering to by 28 lol
I'm with Legal in that a clear plan with timelines is needed. Yes we know COP28, but thats years off leaving a lot of time inbetween.
Everything feels one step to the next via announcement over us being made aware ahead.
Take the recent FS done, which we waited about 10 months for. Its done, to then be told we are now working on the financial studies stuff. We haven't been presented with a copy of the FS either or any details from within it.
All the while, for all the name dropping of the Sheik, we are having to raise repeatedly, which isn't a suprise tbh as any company with this many shares in issue, clearly loves a raise.
The GH is a massive project and understandable it will take time, but without milestones given and in a bad market, Naheed has left the SP wide open to the destruction we have witnessed so far.
Its worth noting explore targets are like hot air and every junior going has some fancy multi mill explore target, but drills, and importantly proved up indicated reserves rarely ever get close to those targets.
Good good mate. Glad to hear.
Yea been grand mate although dont do TA packages as tbh to busy with other projects. I did create one but then took it offline as used the server space for a different site non stock related I had created for another business.
Time lapsed makes sense. I tried messaging you a few times before just to catch up but it always said failed to send message, so prob the connection between accounts gone.
It wasn't anything urgent, just nearing end (well half way) of joining work placement in your field.
Hippo,
I wouldn't disagree much.
The projects ORCP is involved in are large, lengthy, costly builds. They take years and drink money. I too still think as projects, they could come to life.
How much of them we end up owning, that's up for debate still but even a small percentage still provides big uplifts from here.
My own main concern is that Naheed has mis-managed running the company.
Why is her salary so large? Has the capital raised over the years been spent well? Does Naheed fully understand or work towards shareholder value creation?
Those areas need a big improvement (Salary one needs a decrease lol).
Plenty of good news potential still, but as investors, the SP does the talking and at present its been a poor show.
It is insane AG mate, but sadly nothing we can do about it. We all knew how high those salaries were when we entered and knew how long these projects would take.
The one thing we didn't know or expect was the massive discounts Naheed keeps offering out on these placings.
Why is that? Is it because no one wants in so only way to get funds is to make it super attractive price wise, or is it less innocent?
Regardless, nothing we can do to change it as voting rights mean PIs will never have enough voting to make any difference, which is why resolutions always get passed.
To add to that, it might have helped if the FS produced was actually shown to us. I mean we waited patiently for about 10 months for this so called world class study to be created, to then simply be told "study complete, it looks good"
As it stands, given the CEOs large salary, Oracle is coming over very much like a lifestyle company, however, I'm not sure that is the case.
I do believe that it wants to see its projects created, its just mis-managed. The company has no income and no timescaled route to an income either. Without an income the only way to do anything is via placings.
All the MOUs or deals with partners could be very useful for the future, but none provide any restpite from the cashflow issues Oracle has at present.
Building that Green Hydro project is massive and a decades work. I think most understand and accept that, but Naheed needs to become smarter at funding the company.
Debt, if through CLNs likely wouldnt work as we would have no way to pay back so would get hammered even more.
Naheed to me needs to really focus on getting a funding partner who will pay forward installments to us to allow us to operate using that cash. Without that where is the way out of this spiral? As in 6 months we will need more money, and again after etc.
Its not lost on me the high salaries taken too. As it stands, minus some jaw dropping news (positive), those salaries aren't looking like value for money from an investors point of view.
Batt Min were always going to become a seller in my view and so the over hang was always on the cards. Its often the way with these deals and the unspoken downside of them.
On the interesting side though is who brought them all? Did they go into PI hands or other HNW individuals hands?
There was some talk a while back about Podders having to big a stake (not from me as zero issue with there stake), if PIs picked up those shares that could be deamed a positive from those after a larger PI weighted % ownership balance
Its basically priced to fail (or at least not succeed) pretty much.
Ovs amount of dilution once prospectus is approved will be important but at under 4 mil Mcap, there is a decent amount of wiggle room in my view and to still have plenty of upside left after.
Tanz JV is super interesting, but I think its all about Killi's funding and pulling that off right now.
Impossible to tell if or when that might happen. A CEOs job is to be bullish on outcomes, but you would think it can't be to many months off now if it is going to happen?